The headline this week (besides the looming threat of horrible Sunday weather) is for sure the changes.

No one tuned in to the small field, no-cut LIV events on YouTube or the CW so the powers that be naturally stepped in and said “Let’s have a small field, no-cut event!”

I’m overstating it a bit to make a point. Obviously, the difference here is that we’re playing on a world-famous course with most of the biggest names on tour. I still do wonder why they decided this was the way to cater to the players and fans though. I will say there are some positive changes happening along with the strange format. I’m a fan of shortening the pro-am to two days for sure.

So, the main changes from previous editions:

• Fewer players (80 vs. 156 two-person teams)

• Two courses (Pebble Beach & Spyglass Hill) instead of three

• Better field of amateurs, more pro athletes & select professionals

• Increased prize money ($20 million, $3.6 million for winner)

• Pro-Am finishes Friday rather than Saturday

We’ll have info on Spyglass as well on the site, but since only one of the four rounds will be played there, let’s first focus on Pebble, via Ron’s preview article:

Pebble Beach Golf Links

Pebble Beach is perhaps the most visually mesmerizing course in the world. It hugs the rugged California coastline along the cliffs of the Monterey Peninsula with wide open views of Carmel Bay and the Pacific Ocean. As you would expect, coastal winds are one of the course’s main defenses. Last year, winds were a factor for every round with gusts over 30 mph each day. High winds along with wet course conditions forced a rare Monday finish Overall, Pebble Beach rates as the 17th toughest course on Tour averaging 0.37 strokes under par per round since 2019.

Unlike the U.S. Opens that were held here, the course is usually set up with wide fairways and non-penal rough so that the amateurs playing in the pro-am can get around the course in a timely fashion. However, with actual athletes mostly making up the amateur pool this week and perhaps the best field this event has seen, it will be interesting to see if the course setup is tougher than usual. One change already noticed is that the rough is listed as up to an inch longer (2″-3″) than in past years.

As for the course itself, as a par-72 that measures only 6,972 yards, Pebble Beach is the 2nd shortest track on Tour. Other than Congaree, which has the most acres of sand (they are not called bunkers there), Pebble has the most bunkers on Tour with 118. The ones around the greens are notably tricky. From an agronomy standpoint, the fairways and rough are a mixture of Poa and ryegrass while the greens are the famous bumpy California Poa annua.

After an undemanding 7-hole opening stretch where four of the holes average under par, things toughen up quickly with three of the most difficult and scenic par 4s in the world. Many believe this stretch on the front nine constitutes the greatest sequence of holes found anywhere. The back nine does not get any more comfortable with seven of the holes averaging over par.

The par 4s and 5s play as the third shortest group on Tour averaging only 443 yards per hole. In keeping with the short theme, three of the par 5s are under 545 yards and six of the par 4s are under 400 yards. The par 5s are no cakewalk, however, as both the 14th and 18th holes present a challenge. The 14th scores over par and ranks as one of the most challenging par 5s on Tour. It plays uphill away from the water before doglegging to the right. The 18th is a risk-reward that dares players to flirt with Stillwater Cove along the coastline.

One And Done Pool Pick Analysis

Courtesy of PoolGenius

Pebble Beach gives us our best field to date in 2024. Every golfer ranked in our top 25 (other than those who have joined the LIV Tour) is playing in this event and chasing its big $3.6 million first-place purse. That means plenty of golfers to consider as your One And Done pick, including some of the PGA's big guns.

The 2024 season has started with four straight longshots winning, a boon for One And Done players who avoided burning top players early. But at Pebble, golfers like Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, and Collin Morikawa are now grading highly as potential picks, depending on your pool. Our Golf One And Done Picks product shows you all the key data, plus customized Pick Grades that highlight the most strategic pick options for you. Try it free through February 11!

My Model

I focused mostly on the challenges presented by Pebble Beach for my course-fit modeling this week as we only get Spyglass for 18 holes.

• Driving Accuracy: heavy bunkering/taller rough here

• Greens in Regulation %: Again I sorted this further by filtering to “courses with small greens”

• SG: APP: same as above: can’t join the putting contest if you aren’t on the dance floor

• Par 5 Birdie or Better %: Looking for guys who have scored on all par 5s, guessing this will skew towards some of the bombers though, so weighted it lightly

• Bogey Avoidance: Could have used scrambling here as well I suppose

• SG: Short Game: didn’t want to weigh putting or around the green too heavily, but wanted to include them as a “scoring metric”

A lot of the usual suspects, along with my guys Russell Henley and Eric Cole. I’m already quite pro-Viktor, with his main knock being the fact that he hasn’t played yet this January. Probably won’t be betting Rickie.

Check out the site to see the rest of my model, explore Ron or Noonan’s for the week, or build your own (build 10 or 100, get weird with it).

Betting

Last Week: Ludvig made it sweatier than needed with his short putting woes, but another one decided early as Sungjae packed it up on Friday, missing the cut.

Newsletter Bets YTD: 5-0 (+5.11u) We aren’t even out of football season yet, did I peak too early!?!

Trying to keep it rolling, but you know how it goes. This week’s bet:

Stephan Jaeger > Wyndham Clark -110 (DraftKings)

Jaeger is a guy I have liked quite a bit for a while now and I was feeling a bit left out last week when I talked about him on the livestream but he didn’t make the outright betting card. It was a near miss I suppose, but still, it showed that he’s set up well to compete with the best.

His driving accuracy and greens in regulation numbers are markedly better than Clark, who is more of a bomber. Wyndham’s short game is better, but we didn’t really see him thrive for most of the Sentry earlier this month and if he’s going to be wayward on his tee-to-green, I’m not sure it’ll matter anyway. Give me the German!

Weather

Not Great.

Much discussed already this week. Not only chances of rain all week but Sunday looks to be a horrrrrible day with heavy rains all day and wind gusts possibly topping out in the 40 mph range. Who knows what happens, but I will say: that there are only 80 golfers, which allows some flexibility as far as getting all the rounds in.

Another week without any sort of thoughts on wave advantages, since it’s not going to be a thing with tee times so close to each other.

News and Notes

I don’t really understand what happened today and what was announced. It really seems like something I’ll tackle next week once I’ve read 4-5 articles about it from smart people and googled what some of the bigger words mean.

Course history does matter this week, and Justin comes through with the stats as usual but, don’t forget that we looking at a bit of a reset here with the new format/field strength.

Not really news, just an awesome bag for Jordy.

As usual, good advice from Twitter’s unofficial PGA rep, Mike Kim. Everything you wanted to ask about playing in a Pro-Am but were afraid to ask.

ICYMI: Pavon’s up and down wasn’t even close to the most dramatic finale last weekend. Korda picking up three strokes to close it out and force a playoff is fairly epic.

Not 1000% sure on this, but it’s basically saying he has a tour card despite missing a large chunk of last year nursing a shoulder injury.

Favorite Video of the Week: I will always appreciate an albatross more than a hole-in-one for some reason.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, enjoy the golf, and take advantage of one of the final weeks where you can still wake up and tinker with lineups before we move the tour to Florida and the dreaded Eastern time starts.

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