This is a good tournament and all but man oh man the LIV is stealing the show this week. Between the return of Anthony Kim and Talor Gooch saying incredibly stupid stuff out loud, it’s been an eventful couple of days.

I’m old enough to be excited about the return of AK, but it has been a bit over the top. As for Gooch, I guess I just don’t understand how some folks have such low levels of self-awareness. He certainly didn’t win any points with the folks down at Augusta who could someday decide if he gets some sort of special entry or not.

If nothing else, as always, at least the memes were good. On to the Cog:

PGA National

Just a few miles off Florida’s Atlantic coast, halfway between Jupiter and West Palm Beach sits the Champion course at PGA National. While the length seems short by average Tour standards at just 7,147 yards, it plays much longer with eight par-4s measuring longer than 420 yards. With only three par-5s to score on, there are only four total holes with a scoring average under par.

Playing similar to a major championship, the winning score has been 10-under or less in eight of the last 11 years. According to Keegan Bradley, “It’s kind of like the U.S. Open, where you’ve got to hit a lot of fairways and greens and make those 10-footers for par. I just like the style of golf course, where you know that 10-under or less is going to win. So you know you’re always one round away from being in contention.”

PGA National is a standard “Florida” track. It is one of the flattest courses on Tour with unimaginative architecture. With this in mind, (similar to The Concession Golf Club), Jack Nicklaus decided to add drama to the course in the form of water hazards everywhere. Each part of a player’s tee-to-green game will be tested. Trouble is lurking everywhere as strategic bunkers along with 26 actual water hazards on 15 different holes litter the property. Eight holes require approach shots to cross a water hazard making accurate iron play paramount. Over the past five years, the field has averaged 2.42 double bogeys or worse per 72 holes which ranks as the most from any course on Tour….

Model

Did some traveling this week, so I’m a bit behind the eight ball on golf prep, but I LOVE what Noonan did on Monday morning to build a first-look model. It’s also a nice way to highlight some unique features of the Rabbit Hole.

You’d have to check it out on the site to see the details, but the four data sets he pulled were

• SG:Total Last Two Years ONLY IN FLORIDA

• SG:Total Last Two Years All courses that play less than driver

• SG:Total Last Two Years Average, Short, and Very Short courses

• SG:Off The Tee Last Two Years Courses with high water danger

Plenty of the top of the board names, but some interesting shouts for guys like Tyler Duncan (I like him this week) and Adam Svensson.

As always, you can check out this model, Ron’s, Andy Lack’s, or make your own over at Betspertsgolf.com.

Weather

Florida Weather for the next month, temps should go up a bit as we truck along with some chances of rain and the wind mostly depending on the proximity to the coast.

Friday looks a bit windy, especially as the day progresses. Likely a bit of an advantage for the PM/AM wave as Thursday is seemingly calm all day. Storms are projected for Sunday, but it’s a bit early to worry about the horn sounding yet.

Betting

The Curse is REVERSED, got a fairly easy winner last week with the cutline helping me out. Mitchell had a nice tourney, finishing in the top 20, while Pendrith hit the beach early, missing the cut. YTD 6-3 (+2.71u)

Matchup Bet for the Cognizant:

Matt Fitzpatrick > Tom Kim -105 (FanDuel)

I did see someone mention that Fitzy hasn’t played well here in the past, which is an absolutely horrible reason to bet against him. First, this course has been very light on the year-over-year correlation on course history; secondly, he played here last in 2017 when he would have been 22 years old. Suffice to say, he’s a different class of golfer now.

He’s fairly high in the previously mentioned “Florida golf only” and “high water danger” splits, so I’m willing to forgive any uneven recent form and take the underdog price on a guy who won on both the PGA and DP World Tour last year

North Carolina

Sports Betting is going LIVE AND LEGAL in less than two weeks, but make sure to take advantage of all the pre-registration offers that will be available for you.

Check it out here, links and offers will be updated on FRIDAY the 1st, when pre-registration is set to go live. You likely will be able to double dip, with some offers on the 1st for pre-registering and bonuses on Launch Day, the 11th.

News and Notes

A Good J-Ray stat to lead off the day:

This has nothing to do with Goochgate, the Cognizant or hell even The Match really, it’s just something I’ve watched like 200 times.

An increasingly more likeable Rory played the diplomat very well and answered back today:

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, enjoy the golf, and we’ll see you next week for a DOUBLE EDITION featuring the API and the Puerto Rico Open.