It sucks big time that the end of the WMPO got lost in the Super Bowl, but man did we get an all-time video angle of Nick Taylor once again being NAILS in a playoff.

Plus a guy falling down drunk.

The rise in shenanigans at the WMPO during a year where the weather wasn’t even nice and the Super Bowl wasn’t in town is something, I’ll be curious if they beef up security a bit more in future years to reign it in a bit.

Back to the signature events though, this will be the third of eight and one of the three that will feature a 36-hole cut, despite the smaller field. Top 50 + ties & anyone within 10 shots of the lead will see the weekend.

Let’s dive into this historic course with an excerpt from Ron’s course preview article:

Riviera

Located just a couple of miles away from the Pacific coastline, Riviera is a Par-71 course that stretches to 7,322 yards. It features tight, tree-lined undulating fairways with fast Poa green complexes that average 7,500 square feet. It is a classical, old-school track that still packs a punch as it’s averaged -0.15 strokes per round since 2019. That makes it the 14th-toughest Tour course in the annual rotation.

Overall, very few statistical categories at Riviera are easier than the Tour average. With the second-lowest Driving Accuracy/GIR% combo, it is a true test of all-around golf. An amazing dichotomy that shows the difficulty of the course is that it has the second largest greens on Tour yet also has the toughest overall GIR rate at 56.7%. And because of the intricacies of the course, it usually takes years of experience for most players to master. 16 of the last 18 winners had played in at least four previous Genesis Invitationals, and DataGolf lists Riviera as having the 3rd “stickiest” course history correlation.

Another part of Riviera that makes it such an engaging place is players need to think and strategize their way around the course. Each hole offers opportunities to exercise aggressiveness or caution – to take a risk or play it conservatively. George Thomas was also a master of “angular” golf, and its impacts can be seen on many holes at Riviera where the best angle into the green is almost always the angle off the tee with the most trouble. Thomas also increased the number of trees near the greens on the back nine which adds to the strategy of many approach shots down the closing stretch of holes.

While there is no water danger on the course, the 58 bunkers are some of the deepest and most difficult on Tour. This lack of water and other natural hazards is why the penalty rate is almost zero. The course defends itself without any tricks or manipulations thanks to ingenious hole design, narrow fairways, well-placed bunkers, a barranca that comes into play on seven holes, and tricky pin positions on the lightning-fast greens. Barrancas are deep gullies or holes that are hard to get out of once your ball is in it, and the one at Riviera runs throughout the course. Also, keep an eye on the wind forecast this week. If winds increase, they can become very volatile inside of the canyon and will cause the course to play even more difficult as we have seen in years past.

Riviera (along with Torrey Pines) is one of the few courses that feature Kikuyu fairways and rough. While the rough is only two inches thick, Kikuyu lies can be very tricky, especially if the ball gets buried in the spongy strands of grass. The rough can completely entangle itself around the club forcing players to hack the ball out which almost always leads to par at best.

On the flip side, when the ball sits up on top of the Kikuyu on fairways, it can lead to “flyer lies” on approach shots to the green. It’s almost like playing on velcro as it has the innate ability to stop rolling balls dead in their tracks. It is a very unpredictable grass surface and takes time to get used to it. The greens are Poa annua and are intentionally firm and fast, measuring 12.5 on the stimpmeter.

Model

Lots of big names at the top of my model this week, but this is basically a major-level field, so I guess what did I expect? Between my own notes and listening to some other smart folks, I included six splits in my course fit model this week:

• Par 5 Birdie or Better % - The three par-5s are literally the three easiest holes to score on here. You have to make it happen to compete.

• Course History at Riviera, Last 5 Years - Course history has been sticky here. Plenty of quotes from players saying how you need to play Riv a bunch to figure our your way around it.

• Carry Distance - Distance has been helpful here, but with the Kikuyu, I opted for carry rather than distance as the roll-out will be less.

• Poa Putting, Last 2 Years - Guys who have found success on similar greens

• SG: APP - Goes without saying, need great 2nd shots into these big greens

• SG: Scrambling % - Still a very low % GIR course, looking for guys who can grind out some pars when they find trouble.

Members can click on the “View Expert Rankings” to look at the whole thing, as well as Ron’s, Noonan’s, and now some of our partners! Andy Lack and Matt Vincenzi will be featuring an expert model they put together as well. Find out how to get full access for just $5.

Weather

California has had a pretty rough patch of weather for going on a month now, and it doesn’t appear to be letting up for this one. Thank God we’re getting away to Mexico next week.

I did a bad job of predicting the weather delay last week, so I’m not going out on a limb this week (there was a pretty big difference between the waves after the long rain delay). Could see some showers, but with the small field and cut down to ~50 golfers, I would hope we are able to work around that to get this final round in normally.

Not much in the way of winds, and also the half-sized field will have tee times close enough together that we aren’t looking at a wave advantage I don’t suppose.

Betting

No Luck last week, still above water, but need to get back on track in order to keep this train rolling and have a positive season. YTD: 5-2 (+2.91u)

One for the Genesis:

Wyndham Clark > Jason Day -120 (FanDuel)

Been over it a few times this week, Aussies have done well on this sort of setup in the past, but I’m low on Day for a few reasons. He didn’t play particularly well down at Torrey Pines, carding an opening-day 74. Going back to the summer and the close of the season, his irons and approach game have been wildly inconsistent.

On the other side of the coin, Clark is a longer off-the-tee and should be able to follow the blueprint of “just get it as close as you can and worry about the irons when you get there”. No matter how you split it, he’s been better with his irons, especially recently. If I lose this, it’s likely Day having had an outlier putting week, which can happen. I’m willing to bet against it.

Watch our Full Betting Preview, including 4 outrights that Ryan Noonan is betting this week.

DFS Value Play

Adam Scott $8,200

Ron and Byron will be live and ripping through all their thoughts on each tier of players in a weird small-field event that still involved a cut. They’ll go live at 2 pm ET today to talk it through.

News and Notes

We talk about this every week it seems, but even when Scottie isn’t winning, his consistent excellence is really stunning. He’s never not there.

CADDIE UPDATES! For those of you that love tracking caddy, coach, and equipment changes when you’re betting.

With the odd cutline for a small field, I wondered out loud how that would have gone if it had been implemented in the past. Josh did the work and sorted it out for the past 5 years. Amazingly, we would have seen 68 golfers make it through on a top 50 + ties (and within 10 shots) cut a few years back.

An obligatory reminder of this new Tiger deal. I don’t hate the logo as much as some, the gear looks solid for sure. I’m a big hoodie guy.

Video of the Week (that’s not someone drunk at the WMPO)

Two things: I don’t think this happened and this also gave me a weird deja vu. Is this an old video they reposted???

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, enjoy the golf, and pray for a dry weekend. I’ll be in California for the weekend, so I have double the reason to hope this weather finally turns.