Not a ton to say about the Mexico Open. It exists and I’ll watch it for sure but the field is weak as hell, it’s a churched-up resort course and it’s a small purse event that many are skipping before firing up the Florida Swing next week. Every article and podcast will tell you that bombs off the tee and strong long-iron play are key and they aren’t wrong. It’s long and easy.

The one thing I am excited about is the nice chunk of good young golfers in the field as well as some fun names from over in Europe. Spoiler alert, I bet on a couple of them.

and yeah. What a final round from Hideki.

Vidanta Vallarta

Vidanta Vallarta is a par-71 course that measures out to 7,456 yards. It ranks as the sixth-longest course on Tour. It is a unique track that has five par-3s to go with four par-5s and only nine par-4s. Unlike most resort courses, the first two years of this tournament have not resulted in a birdie-fest. Even though there isn’t much sample size, it ranks in the middle of the pack for scoring difficulty.

Along with its monstrous length, the coastal winds appear to be one of the course’s most prominent defenses. With the Pacific coast just down the road, crosswinds are known to impact the course starting around 11 am on most days. Jon Rahm had this to say about the effects of the wind in 2022. “There’s a big difference between morning and afternoon. We had no wind for 13, 14 holes, and it was very scorable. Once the wind starts going 20-30 miles an hour, this golf course starts showing some teeth. It’s long. You have a couple really long par 4s. 4 and 8 are straight into the wind. Both of them 500 yards. So you can start seeing higher scores out there.”

There are also 12 holes with water danger (fifth most), 106 bunkers (second most), numerous large sandy waste areas, and patches of indigenous vegetation that can also cause trouble.

The course features wall-to-wall Paspalum grass surfaces. Paspalum is a very common grass used on coastal courses and is known for its “stickiness”. This means that drives will not roll out as much on the fairways and will stop much quicker on the greens. The rough here is quite short and non-penal at only 1.5″. Greens should run between 10.5-11.5 which is in the slow-to-average range on the stimpmeter.

My Course Fit Model

Way different group of golfers to look at this week and some with some goofy sample sizes, but I did my best to try to put together a set of skills that will be useful this week.

• SG: Ball Striking Last 12 Months: A nice baseline for OTT & APP skill

• Overall Proximity: Just a different way to look at approach numbers, trying to find the guys who can throw darts on the regular.

• Birdies of Better Rate: Resort Course = Need Scoring

• Fairway Approaches, 200+: More Proximity numbers, but a smaller sample of just shots over 200 yards for a course that demands it.

• Club Head Speed: Went with this over driving distance or carry distance

• SG: Total in 2024: wanted to grab some short-term form now that I finally have a chance to. I don’t like doing this early in the year when some haven’t played very much since the summer.

Not a ton of surprises, but was excited to see Jhonny Vegas near the top. He’s a guy that I’ve bet on a ton over the years. Finau is going to be there no matter how you look at it I suppose, but I like Stevens a lot as well with his form and strong approach numbers.

Take a look at the entire thing on the site, or build your own custom model for the week.

Still running the special deal where you can get it for just $5/year when you sign up for a new Vivid Picks account.

Weather

It’s a resort course next to a massive vacation spot in Mexico: it’s going to be nice out.

Winds topping out at like 10 mph and no real chances for precip, plus highs in the mid-80s. Maybe a mild wave advantage for the morning groups if the heat and breezes firm things up, but other than that it’s nice just being out of California. Keep an eye on it and maybe check out a few weather sites; the wind can surprise a bit and kick up even higher in the afternoons sometimes.

Betting

Am I cursed for switching from Substack to Beehiiv? Substack matchups: 5-0, Beehiiv matchups: 0-3.

I’ll chalk it up to variance and try really, really hard to win one this week. YTD: 5-3 (+1.71u). One I like for this week……..

Keith Mitchell > Taylor Pendrith -120 (FanDuel)

Some similarities between these two, with Pendrith getting some bumps for recent form, but Mitchell has been one of the best gaining OTT, especially when I adjust and only look at courses where the scoring was easy.

From the surface, it looks like Pendrith may have a big advantage in approach, but both gain on the field in ball striking and tee-to-green in roughly the same percentage of rounds, and with Mitchell a better and more accurate driver of the ball, I think he’ll be set up with easier 2nd shots into these greens and take advantage.

DFS Value Play

Ron and Byron will be going through all things DFS today at 2:15 ET on the Live Stream. Check out the site or get in the Discord to see all of Ron’s DFS plays this week.

News and Notes (mostly Masters)

It is that time of the year! We are so close to the big one that we can taste it. Hennessey already did a dig into any changes based on the new scorecards and for the 2nd year in a row, it looks as if there won’t be anything too big—just one tee box adjustment on #2 (Pink Dogwood).

The actual big Augusta news is the announcement of some special invites with LIV’s Jaco Niemann, and a couple of DP World Tour winners, Thorbjorn Oleson and Ryo Hisatsune. I enjoyed this particular tweet since it took a ricochet shot at Benny An. Benny did see it and responded.

If you haven’t followed this, here’s a quick catch-up. Cabrera spent two years in prison following some convictions for threats and harassment of a former partner. He’s out of jail and will be playing on the PGA Champions Tour this week. As the 2009 Masters champion, he still has a lifetime invite and could also be in the field this April.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, enjoy the golf, and enjoy the last bad tourney until we get to Texas.