I had a chance to pop down for this one last year with the Super Bowl in town and buddy, it lives up to the hype. The crowds were great, the golfers were feeding off the energy and the vibes were at all-time highs across the board.

The field is a little weaker than last year with it being sandwiched between two signature events and not having the big purse it did in 2023. There is still a ton of talent and most of the young guns will be here in Scottsdale trying to stop Scottie from his three-peat.

TPC Scottsdale

Sitting at just over 7,200 yards, TPC Scottsdale is a Par-71 layout that trades one par-5 for an additional par-4. While it is average in distance by PGA Tour norms, it tends to play much shorter thanks to an average elevation of over 1,500 feet. The course is the second-highest on Tour, which contributes to the increase in driving distance off the tee and gives many the impression that it is a “bombers” paradise.

Though the course is elevated, there is very little change in terrain. The course itself has more of a unique, hybrid style. With a lack of trees, it is not a parkland course. While some holes have a desert backdrop, it is also not a true desert course because it lacks the vast waste areas and natural desert environment of other courses in the Southwest.

With the bermudagrass still dormant, fairways and rough are overseeded with rye and fescue. Starting last year, the rough has been decreased by half an inch down to two inches. Greens are a majority Poa trivialis with some ryegrass mixed in and are very similar to the greens at PGA West Stadium, TPC Sawgrass, Innisbrook, TPC San Antonio, and Harbour Town. The greens are also twice as large as what we saw at Pebble Beach last week at an average of over 7,000 square feet per green and are paced at a 12 on the stimpmeter.

With non-penal rough, reachable par 5s, and huge greens, there aren’t many danger areas to cause players much adversity. Similar to PGA West, the wind is rarely a concern and players often have a dome-like environment in which to score. Due to all the sunlight and the lack of precipitation in this part of the country, the course typically plays firmer and faster as the week progresses. This can affect players negatively on both fairway rollouts into trouble areas and on approaches to the greens that bounce off the putting surface and onto short grass areas. The other potential danger area is off the tee where five holes have water danger and others have scattered waste areas that can affect wildly errant shots.

One And Done Pool Pick Analysis

Waste Management Phoenix Open (Feb 8-11)

Courtesy of PoolGenius

This week's crowd will be fired up to cheer for Scottie Scheffler, the two-time defending champ at this event, and temptation will be strong to pick him in One And Done pools. But buyer beware: the Phoenix Open does not have the same elevated purse as last year. This year’s winner gets just under $1.6 million, compared to the $3.6 million Scheffler won in 2023. 

So you should probably save Scheffler for a bigger-purse event, and consider a deep field of alternatives. Sam Burns, Byeong-Hun An, and Justin Thomas are three options that grade highly for most pools. Our Golf One And Done Picks product provides data, customized Pick Grades, and a new Season Planner tool that helps map out your future picks. Try it for free!

WMPO Model

Ran through the normal process for the week and put together a course fit model on the site to see who separated from the pack or showed up higher

• Total Driving - this is both accuracy and distance

• Scrambling Short Grass % - getting up and down from the collection areas or being short of the green on the fairway side of things

• Birdies or Better from the Fairway - Went a little granular on the scoring metric I added, I suppose this isn’t too far off a proximity number

• SG: APP - Irons, always important

• SG: TOT (WMPO) - Weighted lightly, but still used overall course history here over the past five years.

Obviously, Scottie popped high, but since I leaned a bit into ball striking and its derivatives so did Corey Connors. The Surprising name was for sure Lucas Glover, but leaving putting out of this equation for the most part was what saved him. Tom Kim is a very interesting name to me this week, all he’s missing is the high-end course history.

Check out the rest of my model for the week, or build your own at BetspertsGolf.com. $20/month gets you full access, but if you hurry, you can likely grab a whole year for just $5 ⬇

Weather

The West Coast has been taking it in the shorts for the past week or so, but we are a little bit further inland now and out in the desert, so things will be much drier this week.

Some light showers are expected during the 1st round, but they are not expecting too much in the way of delays as the storms rolling in will lose a lot of intensity by the time they hit the valley. It will be a bit chillier this year. The 2023 WMPO saw highs in the upper 70s Thursday and Friday before cooling down. The mornings will be a bit on the cold side, especially the weekend.

Betting

Finally took one on the chin, and how! Luckily it doesn’t cost any extra to lose a matchup bet by 100 strokes, but it sure didn’t help my pride any.

Maybe he would have overcome the 17-shot deficit if they had played the final round, who’s to say? But as it stands, Jaeger over Clack is a loser and the YTD stands at 5-1 (+4.01u) heading into Scottsdale.

One for this week:

Rickie Fowler > Emiliano Grillo -110 (DraftKings)

Fowler can be a tough guy to back, but… he’s a former winner here, and his putting woes can disappear on a nice surface like we have in Scottdale. Rickie has been the better ball striker and Grillo gaining an abnormal amount of strokes on the greens again this week seems less likely than Rickie’s approach play putting him in a position to score. I dig this one.

Check out all our thoughts in the Betting Show we do each and every Tuesday morning.

News and Notes

Bit of endpointing here, but still pretty wild how we were amazed at how fast some of these “young golfers” were getting it done at the tour level a few years back. Only to see this new crop show even them up.

I’m going to be mad when this is just some clothing line announcement instead of Tiger showing up and playing at Riviera.

This happened to me when my girlfriend’s car broke down leaving a casino many, many years ago. Tyrrell Hatton was nowhere to be found in Redwood Falls, MN that night. We had to flag a cop down and have him go yell at the front desk clerk of a Best Western instead.

Video of the Week. Love these, always makes me feel better about my short game.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, enjoy the golf, and don’t forget there’s a football game after the final round Sunday!