I'm on vacation, so I'm keeping it short.

I'm a little miffed that the wife planned a trip this week since I enjoy going to the event in person, but it’s centered around the in-law's 50th wedding anniversary (congrats to them), and that’s tough to move around the calendar.

Getting some hiking, kayaking, and reading in, and I’ll be back and ready to rock for the Olympics and the lead-up to the playoffs.

So, more from Ron’s preview and less from me. I did make a model and will have a couple of bets.

TPC Twin Cities

Located in the “Land of 10,000 Lakes”, TPC Twin Cities is a Par 71, 7,431-yard course that is relatively flat and that features bentgrass fairways and greens, native prairie grasses, and 27 total bodies of water that are framed by mature oak, spruce, and pine trees. In general, the course is quite bland from an architectural viewpoint. Many of the holes are indistinguishable because of all the water hazards, and the course has a Florida-type feel to it. There are also so many houses lining the course that the beauty of the property is somewhat tainted.

Before the inaugural event back in 2019, tournament founder Hollis Cavner gave a brutally honest description of how organizers wanted the 3M Open to play by saying, “We want birdies and train wrecks, and we don’t want to be the hardest golf course on the tour”. While the course features tons of birdies and low scoring, the data points to it not necessarily being a complete “birdie-fest.” Thanks to longer rough, a firmer course, and winds gusting to 20 mph for each round, the 2022 tournament actually played 0.44 strokes over par. And 2021 champion, Cameron Champ won with the event’s highest score at 15-under. Overall, scoring in the event’s five-year history has only averaged 0.80 strokes under par.

As far as why scoring isn’t lower, that leads us to the “train wrecks” part. The 3M Open has always been about getting in position off the tee to attack flags, while also trying to steer clear of the 13 water hazards in play. As the course’s main defense, nine of these hazards will mentally challenge golfers on their tee shots. Stray drives that end up in the water tend to lead to a bogey or worse. Said Adam Long who has three top-25s here, “There’s a lot of intimidating shots out there. There’s room to miss and stuff, but there’s a lot of water out there as we saw the first few days. It’s kind of in your face, you can’t avoid it. You just have to kind of step up and hit a golf shot a lot of times out there. So it provides a lot of birdies, but it’s also pretty visually intimidating.”

TPC Twin Cities averages the sixth most penalty strokes per round on Tour and had the most “water balls” out of any other course. This makes control off the tee and Bogey Avoidance more of a premium here than most other “easy scoring” courses. Also, with the course not being completely lined with trees, there are open areas for the wind to have more of an impact, which we saw in 2022.

That being said, similar to other “easy scoring” events like the John Deere and Rocket Mortgage Classics there should be numerous birdie opportunities and a winning score in the upper teens or higher. Last year, Lee Hodges ran away with the trophy and won by seven strokes at 24-under. With the greens typically playing very soft and receptive, it comes down to a test of who can keep their ball dry off the tee followed by a ball-striking and a putting contest.

From an agronomy standpoint, as mentioned earlier, the rough is a four-inch blend of bluegrass and fescue. Fairways and greens are pure bentgrass with the greens running at around a 12 on the stimpmeter.

The layout includes four par-3s, three of which are over 200 yards. They rank as three of the eight-toughest holes on the course. Each of the three par-5s play between 590-600 yards. Even with that length, each is quite reachable in two shots. One reason the eagle rate is only around 2.4% on these holes is that they are the toughest set of par-5s on Tour in proximity to the hole when going for the green at an average of 96 feet. No other annual PGA Tour course is within nine feet of that number.

The 11 par-4s on the course are among the easiest on Tour and average under par. Six of them have a birdie or better rate of over 20%. Two are under 400 yards and the par-4 16th hole is often pushed closer so that it becomes a drivable hole which adds to the weekend drama on the final stretch of holes. Not shockingly, it is the five longer par-4s, each with water hazards that each have a bogey or worse rate of at least 17%. Players who can survive those holes and manage to gain strokes on the field will have a distinct advantage.

The second hole at TPC Twin Cities is one of the toughest par-4s on Tour with a scoring average of 4.42. Players found the water off the tee an incredible 73 times – or 16% of all tee shots. This led to 43 double bogeys and nine triple bogeys. No other hole on Tour yielded more than 26 doubles and four triples or worse. Water comes into play on numerous holes down the stretch. None more so than the par-5 18th hole where to reach the green in two shots, players must thread the needle with the driver off the tee to find the fairway. This leaves them with a shorter iron into the green.

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Model

It’s been rainy up this way for the better part of the last few months. I expect the course to be soft and the rough to be a bit thicker than in previous 3Ms. I wanted to put some driving distance in but instead when with Carry Distance considering the roll out may be lessened. I still had to go heavy on the 2nd shot skill with both straight-up SG:APP and Overall Proximity. 

I finished it off with some Birdie or Better % and a nice-sized sample of putting on bentgrass greens.

Ended with a few of the favorites in the top of the list (Finau, Keith, Clanton) but also some intriguing names that I tend to bet here and there anyway like Thorbjornsen and Ryder.

I’ll end up putting out a few small outright T20s on those guys plus Pendrith.

Outrights/Top 20s

Pendrith: +4000/+200
Thorbjornsen: +9850/ +250
Ryder: +12500/ +375

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Weather

Not much to report here, maybe some heavier winds in the afternoons, but with wide fairways and some tree cover, the gusts likely won’t affect play too much. Of course the high temps are a little more reasonable than in years past (the year I don’t attend.)

Rain: nope

Wind: Afternoons might get gusty, from Friday on

Wave Advantage: slight bump to PM/AM with the nice Thursday afternoon conditions.

News and Notes

Cleaning out my Twitter bookmarks from the drive out to Wyoming, starting with a fun one from Mike:

Speaking of road trips (read the article, you’ve got time)…

Dog content always gets me.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and enjoy your week at work, suckers.

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