Another signature event, again with the strange top 50 plus ties plus being within 10 strokes of the lead cut after round two.

I don’t love messing with the old events that have been around forever and a day, but the fact that it’s still a very loaded field will likely make me forget pretty quickly.

A quick shoutout to the King, and one of my favorite Sportscenter commercials ever.

Bay Hill

A stock par-72 classical parkland course that stretches out to 7,466 yards, Bay Hill is slightly longer than the Tour average. It’s notorious for being as difficult as a major-style course. With a scoring average the past five years of 1.21 shots over par, it definitely lives up to that reputation as it is the toughest annual course on Tour. While most players love the challenges that come with the Bay Hill, the course can be an absolute beast.

As is typical of most Florida courses, Bay Hill has 84 bunkers and nine holes with water danger. The water hazards have contributed to the course having the highest percentage of penalty strokes on Tour over the past three years. The course also typically plays very firm and fast. Throw in penal overseeded ryegrass rough and golfers who are missing fairways and greens will consistently be scrambling for pars and bogeys. “The rough is incredibly thick,” Adam Scott said. “It’s a half-shot penalty almost every time you hit it in it.“

Another defense of this course in which Florida is famous is the effects of the wind. The past few years have seen consistent northerly winds between 12-25 MPH, causing both Driving Accuracy and GIR% to decrease by a huge margin. The wind along with the warmer temperatures dries out the course which makes it play even firmer and faster, thus increasing its difficulty. At the start of the week, the Bermuda greens are rolling at a fast 12.5 on the stimpmeter. By Sunday, they can be as fast as a 14 with putts appearing like they are sliding on ice.

Model

Tried to keep it fairly simple this week and instantly realized I put too much ball-striking in when I saw Corey Conners in the top three.

• Total Driving: emphasis on distance but also accuracy considering the 4” rough

• GIR %: out of all the stats that aren’t terribly predictive of future success, GIR sticks out, I tend to lean on it a bunch

• 3-Putt Avoidance: Split this to only Bermuda over the past couple years to see who can keep from losing the tournament on the greens

• Fairway Proximity from 200+: Same as last week, lots of long irons needed

• Ball Striking: wanted to double count OTT and APP a bit here

I did end up betting on Viktor Hovland outright along with a couple of others (we went over all of them in the betting preview this week).

Weather

Getting HOTTER! Starting to creep into the part of the season where you get the hot afternoon sun baking things out a bit. More winds come the weekend, which will be nice considering the course is supposedly soft and receptive right now. I don’t need a repeat of last week, I’d like to see some tough golf eventually. Not looking like a wave advantage especially considering the small field.

Looking like a decent chance of rain on Sunday and I won’t doubt it again after last week’s jinxing. From the Cog weather report:

Betting

Back on a winning streak, just took a minute to find it. To be fair, it was mostly a Sunday win. Kim and Fitz dueled all weekend and then separated hard in Round 4 for a no-sweat win. Matt Fitz > Tom Kim -105 💰

YTD 7-3 (+3.71u)

For the API: Rory McIlroy > Scottie Scheffler +105 (DraftKings)

Tough to fade Scottie anywhere, but I have this matchup a lot closer to -110 each and cannot abide by this dog price. Hard to find big negatives on either of these guys, but lag putting/3-putt avoidance on longer putts is harder here than your average tour stop and that was for sure a spot where Scheffler stuck out in a negative way when I ran my numbers for the week.

News and Notes

I hate all the strife and struggle around OWGR, LIV, and all the other in-fighting, so I’m happy to see top golfers are getting into the majors even if they aren’t on the PGA Tour anymore. Hopefully, this is the last summer we have to deal with all this shithousery.

Kind of in the same wheelhouse, the Open will be kicking out the olds sooner than ever. It seems like 55 is a pretty long time to be playing until, but Phil’s 53!

I took Cameron Young in some One and Done’s last week and honestly can’t even be that mad. Always a bridesmaid works when no one in any of the pools took Eckroat (because why would you?!?!)

Best Video of the Day

I remember the excitement leading up to this knowing that he was going to try it. It’s so stupid that a drive that ended up in the rough is one of my favorite golf memories for the past few years, but Christ, he hit that thing a mile.

North Carolina

Pre-registration offers are out and you have 5 days left to grab them. They go away once your state goes live on the 11th, so check it out and grab the bonuses while you can^⬇⬇⬇

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, enjoy the golf, and we’ll see you next week for the fifth major

BONUS: PUERTO RICO!

I didn’t get a ton of time to look at the PR, but we did throw together a few positional bets in this short preview piece if you’re jonesing for some free bets: