Off the Top

1. This is the best field we’ve seen all year to this point. Xander is back, and this is essentially the toughest field you can put together without the LIV guys. This is what the signature events were meant to be.

2. There IS A CUT, but while it’s just a 72-man field, only the top 50 plus ties, plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead make it through. Genesis and the Memorial also use this rule. The other signature events are no-cut.

3. The beach is gone! Rex outlines it with some nice graphics, but they changed up 17 a bit this year.

Bay Hill

A stock par-72 classical Florida parkland course that stretches out to 7,466 yards, Bay Hill is slightly longer than the Tour average. It’s notorious for being as difficult as a major-style course. With a scoring average the past five years of 1.2 shots over par, it lives up to that reputation as the second-toughest annual course on Tour over the past five years. While most players appreciate the challenges that come with the Bay Hill, the course can be an absolute beast.

As is typical of most Florida courses, Bay Hill has 84 bunkers and nine holes with water danger. The water hazards have contributed to the course having the highest percentage of penalty strokes on Tour over the past five years. It also typically plays very firm and fast. Throw in penal overseeded ryegrass rough and golfers who are missing fairways and greens will consistently be scrambling for pars and bogeys. “The rough is incredibly thick,” Adam Scott said. “It’s a half-shot penalty almost every time you hit it in it.“

Another defense of this course in which Florida is famous is the effects of the wind. The past few years have seen consistent northerly winds between 12-25 MPH, causing both Driving Accuracy and GIR% to decrease by a huge margin. The wind along with the warmer temperatures dries out the course which makes it play even firmer and faster, thus increasing its difficulty. At the start of the week, the Bermuda greens are rolling at a fast 12.5 on the stimpmeter. By Sunday, they can be as fast as a 14 with putts appearing like they are sliding on ice.

There is some elevation built into a few of the holes, but for the most part, the course is largely flat. Most of the course’s scenery is centered around the water holes. With all of the lakes and bunkers in play, there are forced carries on different holes which present risk/reward opportunities for players. Numerous par 4s force players to take less-than-driver to minimize the chances of getting into trouble. Being forced to club down combined with the thicker rough stopping wayward drives in their track makes the course play even longer.

So much of succeeding at Bay Hill comes down to leaving the ball in the correct spot, playing the proper angles, and staying patient. This is why course history matters so much here. The best way to know where to keep the ball in the fairway and on the greens is to have played in these conditions at Bay Hill previously. 16 of the past 19 winners had played in at least three Arnold Palmer Invitationals. As Jordan Spieth said, “It’s a little tricky because it seems like a course where course knowledge can go a long way, given the difficulty of it and especially on and around the greens.”

Betting

Close again (horseshoes/haircuts/hand grenades), but no cigar. It’s tough betting against Scottie, but at these prices, I’m more than willing to take new and improved Xander and an amazing course fit in Ludvig. Just the two outrights with a sprinkle on some placements from guys I like to compete but can’t get behind to win at the current pricing.

Xander Schuffele +2213
Ludvig Aberg +1609

Rory Top 5 +160
Fleetwood Top 10 +160
Sungjae Top 20 -110
(all WITH ties)

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Bay Hill Model

This is actually my 2024 model, loaded up with the 2025 field, which is fun. It’s the stats I was going to look at anyway, but it’s saved there for me. It's quite helpful in a week where conference tournaments are starting and I have to figure out Puerto Rico as Well.

• Total Driving: Need distance on the par 5s but also want accuracy because of how bad the rough is

• GIR%: Greens are roughly 30% harder to hit in regulation than an average tour stop

• 3-putt avoidance: looking for the guys who can grind pars

• Fairway proximity 200+: shots from this distance happen much more frequently at Bay Hill compared to the average stop

• Ball Striking on less than driver courses: Plenty of clubbing down here.

You can see the entire model here

Weather

A little gusty to start the tournament.

Not much we can do about Sunday yet, but right now, it looks like early morning gusting for round one, maybe giving us a small wave advantage for the PM/AM guys since Friday looks pretty calm.

News and Notes

• Love him or hate him, this was a moment.

• I’m happy about the first part and furious about the second. So status quo via sleight of hand from the networks, I guess.

• This checks out

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and enjoy a nice, cold mixed beverage.

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