Off the Top

1. Funny format - 80 players, no cut, but we’ll still be using two different courses for Thursday and Friday. Half the field is on Pebble Beach, half is on Spyglass Hill (which will have shotlink data for the first time!). These first two rounds will be played with amateurs in tow.

2. These courses are both among the shortest on the tour but also will force plenty of less-than-driver shots with how they’re set up. A true test of irons and putting on tough West Coast Poa.

3. Scottie’s back, Rory’s back, Jordy’s back!

A look at a course that needs no introduction from Ron Klos’ course preview article.

Pebble Beach

…As for the course itself, as a par-72 that measures only 6,972 yards, Pebble Beach is the 2nd shortest track on Tour. Other than Congaree, which has the most acres of sand (they are not called bunkers there), Pebble has the most bunkers on Tour with 118. The ones around the greens are notably tricky. From an agronomy standpoint, the fairways and rough are a mixture of Poa and ryegrass while the greens are the famous bumpy California Poa annua.

One of the main reasons this classical course has remained challenging and stood the test of time is the ingenious way it uses the expansive slopes that traverse the property. Most of the fairways tilt toward the ocean and are set across the holes. This results in players often hitting their approach shots from uneven lies with the ball above or below their feet. As you can imagine, this only adds to the challenge of trying to land second shots on its diminutive greens.

After an undemanding 7-hole opening stretch where four of the holes average under par, things toughen up quickly with three of the most difficult and scenic par 4s in the world. Many believe this stretch on the front nine constitutes the greatest sequence of holes found anywhere. The back nine does not get any more comfortable with seven of the holes averaging over par.

The par 4s and 5s play as the third shortest group on Tour averaging only 443 yards per hole. In keeping with the short theme, three of the par 5s are under 545 yards and six of the par 4s are under 400 yards. The par 5s are no cakewalk, however, as both the 14th and 18th holes present a challenge. The 14th scores over par and ranks as one of the most challenging par 5s on Tour. It plays uphill away from the water before doglegging to the right. The 18th is a risk-reward that dares players to flirt with Stillwater Cove along the coastline.

Be sure to check out the full article for a look at Spyglass Hill, as well as Ron’s breakdowns of the stats that matter this week.

Rabbit Hole Model

We built a straightforward model this week for what should be a really simple test. Hit your second shots and find your short game. It’s hard to get in significant trouble off the tee (you still can), and it’s also hard to gain massive advantages off the tee.

We went with:

1. Ball Striking previous 18 months on short and very short courses

2. Good Drive % previous 18 months on “less than driver” courses

3. SG: Short Game previous 18 months

Again, looking for some pure 2nd shots and some guys that can get it done up on the dancefloor. Members can check out the entire model here.

My Bets for the week:

Ludvig Aberg +2200
Hideki Matsuyama +2200

Taylor Pendrith Top 20 +150
Russell Henley Top 20 +185
Wyndham Clark Top 20 +185

We went over these and plenty more on the show yesterday:

Weather

It is chilly mornings, but the winds don’t appear to be getting to the level of being a problem this week. Some chances of rain, but I don’t think we’ll be sitting on massive delays or the possibility of a shortened tournament again. Both Thursday and Friday are similar, so I’m not sure there’s an advantage to which course you play first this week.

News and Notes

• I jotted down my thoughts on One-and-Done Selection this week

• It’s so nice to see actual news on golf injuries. Usually we’re just in the dark on this stuff.

• Dylan is doing it a little differently, but I love a good chart with status updates

• Congrats to one of our favorite ladies amateurs, Air Force Lieutenant Rachel Heck

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and enjoy the greatest meeting of land and sea

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