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The Florida Swing has been building to this. After a week of watching mostly mid-tier guys grind around PGA National, the signature event field is back, and Bay Hill is ready to remind everyone why it produces some of the best winners on Tour.

The easy answer this week is Scottie Scheffler. He's won here twice, he's the world No. 1, and he's been in a different gear than everyone else for the better part of two years. At +350, the market is basically asking you to decide whether you want to bet on the sun rising. Hard to argue with it.

Worried about his round 1 issues? He isn’t:

But here's the rub. Bay Hill is long, demanding, and punishes anyone who loses focus for even half a round. The water is everywhere, the par-3s are brutal, and the wind can turn a clean scorecard ugly in a hurry. Scheffler is great, but this course has a way of creating chaos, and chaos is where value lives.

This week (every week), we're breaking down the course, running through the model, and giving you the outright targets we actually like.

Bay Hill ☂

A stock par 72 classical Florida parkland course stretching to 7,466 yards, Bay Hill plays slightly longer than the PGA Tour average and is widely regarded as having major championship difficulty. With a scoring average of +0.90 over the past five years, it ranks as the sixth toughest annual stop on Tour. While players respect the challenge, the course can quickly become overwhelming.

As is typical of many Florida layouts, Bay Hill features 84 bunkers and water in play on nine holes. Those hazards have helped produce the highest percentage of penalty strokes on Tour over the past five seasons. The course also plays firm and fast. Combined with thick overseeded ryegrass rough, players who miss fairways and greens are routinely left scrambling to save par. Adam Scott emphasized the difficulty, saying, “The rough is incredibly thick. It’s a half-shot penalty almost every time you hit it in it.”

Wind is another defining defense, something Florida courses are known for. In recent years, steady northerly winds between 12 and 25 miles per hour have significantly reduced both driving accuracy and greens in regulation percentages. The wind, paired with warm temperatures, dries the course out and makes it play even firmer and faster. Early in the week, the Bermuda greens typically roll around 12.5 on the stimpmeter. By Sunday, they can approach 14, with putts looking as though they are sliding across ice.

While a few holes feature modest elevation changes, the Bay Hill Club and Lodge is predominantly flat. Much of the visual appeal centers around its water lined holes, where lakes and bunkers combine to create demanding forced carries and true risk reward decisions. Several par 4s require players to club down off the tee to avoid trouble. When lying back is paired with thick rough that halts errant drives, the course effectively plays even longer than its listed yardage.

Success at Bay Hill often comes down to precision and patience. Leaving the ball in the proper spots, choosing the correct angles into greens, and managing misses are critical. That is why course history has proven so important. Experience provides a clear understanding of where to position tee shots and approaches in these specific conditions. 17 of the past 20 champions had played Bay Hill at least three times before their win.

Jordan Spieth highlighted that edge, saying, “It’s a little tricky because it seems like a course where course knowledge can go a long way, given the difficulty of it and especially on and around the greens.”

Model

My Top Ten for course fit does not somehow include Rory, which means I’m probably a little too far into the weeds on the skills and data I used. That said, I don’t need data to tell me how good the top two golfers are. I am looking for other guys who have shots at conquering this course (to the tune of maybe sneaking out a top 5).

Stats I used this week:

• Total Driving and…

• Good Drive%

• Straight up Approach (no filters) over the past year.

• 3-putt avoidance on these large, fast greens.

• SG: TOT over the past two years on ALL COMP COURSES.

Anyone on there tickle your fancy? Is Ryan Gerard a fraud? Askshay?!?!

You can see the whole model on the site (if you’re a member). Non-members: try it out for just $10 for the first month using promo code WELCOME

Betting

Still grinding, looking for winners (in all the wrong places), but confindent in the process and throwing more money into the furnace this week.

Avoided Scottie at price, since I’m still feeling that the gap between him and Rory is a bit too big. Fleetwood modeled well, has played well enough, and is no longer a lovable loser. Aberg I just couldn’t resist, even at a bad number… maybe he figures it out this week. I also played some top 20s on a few golfers that modeled well for me this week and check some other boxes for this course.

Outrights

Rory McIlroy +1000
Tommy Fleetwood +2050
Ludvig Aberg +3850

Top 20s (ties win)

Si Woo Kim -125
Akshay Bhatia +130
Corey Conners +140

Also be sure to check out Ryan’s outright card (he won last week)

How to Watch

TV

Thursday: 2-6 p.m. ET Golf Channel

Friday: 2-6 p.m. ET Golf Channel

Saturday: 12:30-2:30 p.m. ET Golf Channel; 2:30-6 p.m. ET NBC

Sunday: 12:30-2:30 p.m. ET Golf Channel; 2:30-6 p.m. ET NBC

Streaming

Thursday: 7:30 a.m.-6 p.m. ESPN+

Friday: 7:30 a.m.-6 p.m. ESPN+

Saturday: 9 a.m.-6 p.m. ESPN+

Sunday: 9 a.m.-6 p.m. ESPN+

Weather

For now, the winds don’t seem to be too dramatic, but it’s still early in the week. Afternoon/evening shower chances nearly every day complicate things a bit, but still, it doesn’t appear that there would be much of a wave advantage one way or the other, given the current forecast.

News and Notes

Going for the treble at home. Seems like bad news for the American team.

I hadn’t really even thought of this until I saw the tweet. Glad folks are ok.

If he wins this week, I’ll watch this

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and grab your ice tea or lemonade (hell, maybe both).

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