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Easy course, short course, nasty winds. This could be a recipe for a long shot to come in, but the pricing on the board is pretty tough at the top, with a glut of names at 50/1 or lower.

A look at the course from Ron’s preview on BetspertsGolf.com

Port Royal

At 6,828 yards long, Port Royal is the shortest course played in the annual Tour rotation. Labeled as a “great resort course”, the par 71 track is one where any type of player can have success. The main “X-factor” that determines the scoring conditions each year is the wind. Blustery conditions have factored into every tournament here, and anyone attempting to predict player outcomes should have past performance in windy conditions built into their model.

As Patrick Reed once said about Port Royal, “It’s one of those golf courses that if they didn’t have wind around here, you’d go out and you’d destroy. So I almost feel like they need the wind here to be kind of a defense mechanism for the golf course.” And it is not just the wind that can challenge, it is also the changing direction mid-round. Said Aaron Wise about the course, “It’s definitely not a bomber’s golf course. The crazy part is how much it changes because the wind’s blowing 30 miles an hour. Then all of a sudden, if the wind switches to the dead opposite way, a ball goes 50 yards shorter or longer than it did the day before.”

Winning scores have ranged from 15-under (twice) to 24-under (twice) – with the tougher scoring years resulting from windy conditions. From shorter hitters like Brendon Todd, Brian Gay, and Camilo Villegas to longer hitters like Taylor Pendrith and Lucas Herbert, all types of players have been in contention. The enormous average green size of 8,000 square feet helps scoring, especially in the wind.

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When winds were stronger and certain holes played longer, the scoreboard showed that the bombers off the tee had a definite advantage. Even so, the course is short enough that it cannot be overpowered either way. Early weather forecasts have winds between 15-25 mph each day with higher gusts on the weekend.

Port Royal also features consistent elevation changes similar to the Plantation Course at Kapalua. And as should be expected by a Robert Trent Jones design, heavy fairway bunkering is another part of the challenge. For agronomy this week, the course is 100% bermudagrass.

As for the holes themselves, the course is an interesting mix of seaside and parkland holes. The first hole tee box is perched on high with players hitting downhill as they head away from the ocean. In fact, the first seven holes are somewhat protected by trees that appear like a tropical parkland course. It is not until you reach the 7th green that you get full panoramas of the Atlantic Ocean and the crystal blue waters of Bermuda’s south shore. This is also where the wind typically intensifies as players must deal with ocean breezes for the remaining holes except holes 11-13.

Including the effects of the wind, the par-3s at Port Royal are among the most difficult set on Tour. Three of the four measure over 213 yards and are the most difficult holes on the course. The par 3 16th is Port Royal’s signature hole. Widely considered one of the toughest par-3s in all of golf, it is a 235-yard crescent-shaped beauty with a carry directly over the Atlantic Ocean.

Eight of the 11 par-4s are less than 415 yards with the longest playing at 458 yards. Overall, Port Royal has the shortest group of par-4s on Tour that can also play as the easiest if winds are low. Historically, however, seven of the 11 par’4s have averaged over par. The three par-5s measure at only 507, 517, and 553 yards and have a birdie or better rate of 45%. Even in strong winds, players will need to take advantage of these scoring holes.

Model

Noonan and I kept it VERY simple this week, just using three inputs in our rabbit hole model:

• Recent Form - SG:TOT, last 6 months

• Approach play in windy conditions

• Form in similar tournaments last three years (coastal, easy scoring)

A couple of my favorites popped near the top and again, I’ll have a few outright on the names that matched my other models for the week. Check out the full model on site or build your own.

Betting

Light card for a light weekend, but still not going to miss the Ben Griffin win (or the Berger one for that matter.

Ben Griffin +2000

Sam Stevens +2800

Dan Berger +3461

Jacob Bridgeman +4000

72-Hole Matchup

Justin Lower > Doug Ghim +110 (DK)

Tons to like about Ghim, but at this price there are a couple things I like about Lower: he’s got a much better short game and has a better track record when I start looking at longer term play in windy conditions. Below is a two-year sample of overall SG categories when the wind kicks up. Lower’s shorter off the tee and isn't going to rank well it OTT anywhere, but overall and in approach he’s clearly been better than most of the field. I’ll take a nice dog price in Bermuda this week.

Weather

Windy as hell, basically all week. Still a bit too early to tell what sort of splits we’ll see but looking at Windfinder right now shows some possibility of a possible lighter Friday afternoon. Very much worth monitoring before you lock in the lineups or bets on Wednesday night.

News and Notes

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As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and see you next week for the final Swing Season event of the year…..

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