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I had a chance at back-to-backs last week with Garrick Higgo on the lead heading into the final round, but I wasn’t holding my breath considering the low scores we’d seen on the week and the crowded leaderboard. Alas, a double on the back nine doomed his chances, but I was still happy with the process, and it’s very hard to win golf tournaments, so I didn’t lose too much sleep.

We’re once again facing an easy course, in one of the shortest on tour here in Bermuda. The field is a bit weaker, and there’s no clear favorite. Most sportsbooks like about a dozen and a half guys in the 20/1-40/1 range. Likely another week where you can just ride with the names you think have a shot to get hot.

We’ll start with a look at this course, via Ron’s Preview Article:

Port Royal

At 6,828 yards long, Port Royal is the shortest course played in the annual PGA rotation. Designed by legendary architect Robert Trent Jones Sr., the par-71  resort course takes full advantage of Bermuda’s natural terrain—clifftop tees, wind‑swept fairways, and greens with ocean glimpses from nearly everywhere. The main factor that determines the scoring conditions each year is the strength of the wind. Blustery conditions have, at least partially, influenced every tournament here, and anyone attempting to predict player outcomes should have past performance in windy conditions built into their model.

As Patrick Reed once said about Port Royal, “It’s one of those golf courses that if they didn’t have wind around here, you’d go out and you’d destroy it. So I almost feel like they need the wind here to be kind of a defense mechanism for the golf course.” And it is not just the wind, but also how often it changes direction mid-round. Said Aaron Wise about the course, “It’s definitely not a bomber’s golf course. The crazy part is how much it changes because the wind’s blowing 30 miles an hour. Then all of a sudden, if the wind switches to the dead opposite way, a ball goes 50 yards shorter or longer than it did the day before.”

Winning scores have ranged from 15-under (twice) to 24-under (twice) – with the tougher scoring years resulting from windy conditions. From shorter hitters like Brendon Todd, Seamus Power, and Camilo Villegas to longer hitters like Taylor Pendrith, Patrick Rodgers, and Lucas Herbert, all types of players have been in contention. The enormous average green size of 8,000 square feet contributes to the scoring ease, especially in the wind.

When the winds increased and certain holes stretched longer, the scoreboard made it clear that the big hitters off the tee held a definite advantage. Still, Port Royal’s short layout ensures that it can’t be completely overpowered in any conditions.

Port Royal also features consistent elevation changes, similar to those of the Plantation Course at Kapalua. As should be expected from a Robert Trent Jones design, heavy fairway bunkering is another part of the challenge. For agronomy this week, the course is 100% bermudagrass.

As for the holes themselves, the course is an interesting mix of seaside and parkland holes. The first hole tee box is perched high, with players hitting downhill as they head away from the ocean. In fact, the first seven holes are somewhat protected by trees that appear like a tropical parkland course. It is not until you reach the 7th green that you get full panoramas of the Atlantic Ocean and the crystal blue waters of Bermuda’s south shore. This is also where the wind typically intensifies as players must deal with ocean breezes for the remaining holes, except for holes 11-13.

Including the effects of the wind, the par-3s at Port Royal are among the most difficult set on Tour. Three of the four measure over 213 yards and are the most difficult holes on the course. The par 3 16th is Port Royal’s signature hole. Widely considered one of the toughest par-3s in all of golf, it is a 235-yard crescent-shaped beauty with a carry directly over the Atlantic Ocean.

Eight of the 11 par-4s are less than 415 yards, with the longest playing at 458 yards. Overall, Port Royal has the shortest group of par-4s on Tour that can also play as the easiest if the winds are low. Historically, however, seven of the 11 par’4s have averaged over par. The three par-5s measure at only 507, 517, and 553 yards and have a birdie or better rate of 45%. Even in strong winds, players will need to take advantage of these scoring holes.

Betting

I will still be betting Rico until he’s at a course I don’t think he can win. It’s my tax for now. Sami and Jackson are some mid-range prices I found for guys that have good enough form and strong enough irons to compete here. There are cases for dozens of guys, but it’s a lot harder to make money if you bet ‘em all.

OUTRIGHTS

Rico Hoey +2243
Sami Valimaki +4000
Jackson Suber +6500

Members can take a look at my model for the week here.

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Golfer Showcase

Not a guy I’ll be betting on, but these are the fun parts of the fall season for me: seeing more of the future stars getting opportunities.

Tyler Watts (a southpaw, btw) will be in the field after just turning 18. He’s committed to play college golf at Tennessee after he graduates, but this isn’t his first PGA experience. He made the cut at the Procore Championship earlier this fall, which is even more impressive if you recall that most of the US Ryder Cup team was there, making the field a bit tougher.

He’s the youngest to ever win the 2023 Alabama State Amateur Championship (15), and earned a spot in the Butterfield Bermuda Championship as the top performer in the 2025 Men’s Elite Amateur Cup, a collective series of seven of the top amateur events contested throughout the summer.

He’s not super pumped to be playing in the wind (you can see his press conference here), but still said he’s excited to get another PGA start under his belt before he even graduates high school, and has been working with his coach to lower his ball flight ahead of this week.

Weather

WINDY! Tough to say where the wave advantage may fall right now, if there is one at all. Earlier in the week, it seemed that Thursday might be a bit easier, but now both days are looking very similar in terms of wind speed, direction, and maximum gusts.

I pulled up Windfinder as well, and found mostly the same. While there may not be an advantage in a wave, you can still dig into golfers who play better than average in windy conditions via lower ball flight.

News and Notes

No firm news is available yet, but it appears that the Sanderson Farms and Procore Championships may not be on the schedule next year. The tour is moving the Mexico Open to the fall and will be adding another event in North Carolina (in addition to the Good Good event in Austin next November).

PUTTER NEWS:

LIV NEWS!

New award this coming season on the DPWT after Rory finally gets his career slam home.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and hold on to your hats.

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