I was a little surprised at the strength of the field here this week, I always seem to forget that a handful of top golfers still do come here even with it being the week after a major championship.

This clearly isn’t a major, hell, it’s not even a signature event, but I’d argue that it’s a better course than what we ran into last week. Coupled with the Texas winds, this can be quite the test for golfers. Quail Hollow improved as the week went on, but it was still a little easier than I had hoped for, especially right off the bat.

Apologies for the tardiness this week, been busy with real life and a bit under the weather. I still found time to read Ron’s preview article, and so should you:

Colonial

Colonial Country Club is a par 70 course that measures 7,289 yards. It is a lengthy classical course that has tree-lined fairways, numerous doglegs, and small green complexes. Cut through pecan, walnut, and oak trees, the course features very little sloping and elevation changes. Similar to a Donald Ross design, the routing of the course is very creative as players will tee off in a different direction after each hole. When the “Texas” winds start to blow, this can cause some challenging decisions on tee shots. It has the third-smallest average landing zones when combining fairway width (27.5 yards) and green size (5,000 square feet).

Colonial has a mixture of Bermudagrass fairways and rough along with pure Bentgrass greens. The rough will be grown at 2.5″ to start the week but could thicken up beyond 3″ by the weekend. And because it’s Bermuda, it will present trouble for players who spray it off the tee. As a perennial contender at Colonial, Justin Rose noted that the Bermuda rough is quite unpredictable. “It’s the type of rough here where you catch a lot of fliers, and the greens are small and tricky. So catching fliers into these greens you’ll make a lot of bogeys. I think the rough is tough enough around here if you catch a bad lie it’s hard to get it to the green.” The greens typically run around 12 on the stimpmeter to start the tournament and then are cut lower to a more speedy 13 by Sunday.

Colonial is one of the toughest courses to make birdies on Tour, and because it cannot be overpowered, it continues to challenge golfers year after year. Last year, Davis Riley won at -14 and was the only player in double figures under par. Even after such a huge renovation, the 2024 edition played very similar to how the course has played in the past. Jhonattan Vegas summed up Colonial by saying, “This course is all about precision. There is nothing about power around this place. You can drive to the wrong side of the fairway, and still not have a clear shot to some of these holes. It’s about thinking your way around this place. Obviously, all the past winners are guys that are able to do that really well.”

Over the last five years, it has averaged 0.41 strokes over par which makes it the 10th toughest course on Tour. Thanks to only two par-5s, Colonial sees one of the lowest amount of eagles on Tour and the third-highest rate of pars. With the lack of many “birdie” holes, boring golf tends to win here. On most years, a lack of precipitation combined with hot temperatures and high winds allow for firm and fast conditions.

Since the 2023 renovation, one of the biggest changes to the course is the reduction in bunkers from 84 to 64. Taking down many trees also brings the Trinity River into play on a couple of extra holes. Along with the small greens and unpredictable bermuda rough, high winds help to keep scores down. This was the case in 2022 and 2023 when Emiliano Grillo and Sam Burns each won with single-digit scores as winds gusted 20-35 mph for multiple rounds each year.

New Features

We are ALWAYS listening to subscribers and ALWAYS working to make the data tools better. This week we’ve rolled out a new batch of bonus filters and requested changes to the Rabbit Hole.

Ron lays it all out in the Tweet, but the two biggest ones, in my opinion, are the ability to look at Strokes Gained data in only rounds played with Preferred Lies and only rounds played with wet conditions (mud ball SZN).

Check it out if you're already a member, and if you’re not, take advantage of a discounted first month!

Betting

Small card after taking another beating at a major.

A bit of a mix of guys who can take advantage of a course that doesn’t favor bombers and guys who have been playing well enough to get into the mix at a place like this.

JT Poston +4000
Brian Harman +5250
Andy Novak +8550
Ryo Hisatsune +12500

Weather

I think the only really important thing this week will be the winds! Friday afternoon is looking a bit breezy, and the weekend appears to be the worst of it.

Maybe the slightest advantage for the PM/AM draw since Friday looks worse than Thursday as far as afternoons go.

News and Notes

• No context needed

• Looking ahead to next month: could we be on Career Slam watch at the Open?

• My favorite thing from scrolling Twitter yesterday. Guy’s partner had to skidattle for a graduation, and he played Four-Ball as a solo (and won a match)

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and Don’t Mess With Texas.

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