CJ Cup Byron Nelson is a mouthful and sounds like the kind of thing you end up with when two accounting firms merge and mash their names together to make a longer name.

Terrible field, terrible course, terrible weather. Still, there is a nice menu of matchup bets, some long shots with chances to play their way into some bigger tourneys, and it’s not like there’s football on.

Two more weeks until the next major, and if you CAN’T WAIT, here’s an article from over the winter where Ron took an early look at the site of the PGA Championship: Valhalla Golf Club. Free to read if you want to get an early start on things.

But, back to Texas, and again tapping Ron Klos’ preview articles, an excerpt to let you know a little more about the course this week:

TPC Craig Ranch

Featuring gently rolling hills, mature woods, and the ever-present Rowlett Creek which crisscrosses the course 14 different times, TPC Craig Ranch is a par 71 course that can be stretched out to 7,414 from the championship tees. In the first two editions here of the Byron Nelson, it played as a par 72. Attempting to make the course less scoreable, the 12th hole was shortened from 547 yards to 493 yards and plays as a par 4 instead of a par 5. It’s a track where length off the tee certainly helps as it ranks as the 10th longest course on Tour.

Designed by Tom Weiskopf in 2004, it has sprawling fairways (8th widest on Tour), few hazards, and larger than average flat greens. The first three events at TPC Craig Ranch have been the definition of a birdie-fest. K.H. Lee bettered his 25-under winning score from 2021 with a 26-under mark in 2022. Last year, Jason Day won at 23-under. Overall, the course has played as the fourth easiest on Tour at 2.43 strokes under par. It put up such little defense that only five holes average over par, and it contains the highest birdie-to-bogey ratio at 2.2. TPC Craig Ranch is a scorer’s paradise that will come down to ball striking and a putting contest on the greens.

Related to course defense, TPC Craig Ranch puts up very little resistance in any area. While Rowlett Creek is present on many holes it does not threaten players in most instances unless they spray their tee shot. The only other real threat to tamper scoring would be the gusty winds that courses in Texas have a reputation for. Looking at the early weather forecast, heavy rains are supposed to pound the area on Thursday which will only soften the greens and allow for target practice on approach. As of now, winds are forecast to gust between 20-30 mph each day of the tournament. That might be the only chance of keeping the winning score below 25-under again.

For agronomy this week, there is a mixture of three types of grasses. The fairways are Zoysia grass which is a spongy turf somewhat similar to Paspalum. TPC Southwind and East Lake are other courses with Zoysia fairways. The rough is Bermuda and last year was increased in length to 2.75” inches to toughen the course though not to much avail. Greens are bentgrass and will run at an average of 11.5 on the stimpmeter.

Weather

Doesn’t look great. We are working with a full field even, so there is a ton of golf we need to get in, and Thursday looks to be a washout. I have no idea what we’ll get, but it seems that the heaviest of the rain will be cleared out by late morning Thursday, so it’s possible that a delayed start could be what we’ll see for Round 1.

If the rain continues throughout the afternoon, then who knows, we may be finishing on Monday. Some sites are showing the rain ending earlier than others, but I always just default to the worst-case scenario.

Betting

I didn’t find an outright winner last week with Rors winning/singing, but looking back at the matchups I spent even a minute of time peeking into, I’m glad I avoided playing any.

Looked into 6 golfers I am thinking about betting this week on the live stream this week. Had to roll solo, so it’s around 30 minutes if you have the time.

I also put together a quick model with the Rabbit Hole. I used SG: Approach, Driving distance, Birdie or Better %, Par 5 Birdie or Better%, and Putting on Bentgrass as my inputs. Here are the top ten, but members can poke around with the whole thing or check out other models (and build their own) on the website.

Matchup for the Week:

Mark Hubbard > Seamus Power -110 (DraftKings)

Despite a nice outing a few weeks back at RBC, I have Hubbard as the better ball striker. He’s shorter off the tee, but we’ve seen that work here in Texas before IF the longer approach game is good enough to supplement short and straight with the driver.

Hubbard’s proximity numbers from the fairway over the past year or two more than makeup for his diminutive driving numbers, and I think he should be a larger favorite here. Powers putting numbers improve if you only look at Bentgrass stops, but overall, he lacks in SG:P over the past 12 months compared to Hubbard as well.

A good nugget from Joe (a smart cat) about live betting this week:

LIV Preview

I don’t have anyone I’m particularly excited about betting this week, but I did do a short preview and watched a bunch of clips of the course. While the format, coverage, and most of the golfers are not up to snuff, this is actually a super nice course and looks to be something I may watch in the evenings this weekend.

I did end up down a rabbit hole a bit looking into this course, and have a Trivia question for those of you who consider themselves students of the game.

NEWS AND NOTES FROM THE INTERNET

A couple of videos to start highlighting the dual nature of man/golf. Starting with a putt from Deki that I couldn’t make with 100 tries for a million bucks

I feel like most have seen this one, but maybe not everyone is online as I. Calling him a “star” feels like a stretch, but he does indeed “lose his sh!t”

More LIV news, possibly pertinent to me. One more tourney added, sort of. The Individual Championship was always on the calendar, it just didn’t have a home. This isn’t too far from me, I might have to take a weekend down in Chicago this September if I can get press passes.

Example #543532 of Michael Kim tweeting something interesting that I had no idea about:

And even though I’m counting it as win number 24.5, a cool stat from Justin:

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and pray the rain misses us.

Do me a favor and…..

Twitter | YouTube | Website | The Rabbit Hole