Off the Top

Coming in this week, I knew we had some changes to this course, but as we dug in and talked to the rest of the team, I’m not sure any of them will make this a noticeably tougher test.

Ron summarizes what’s different this year, but for the most part, we’re still on a course that can best be described as long but easy.

TPC Craig Ranch

Featuring gently rolling hills, mature woods, and the ever-present Rowlett Creek, which crisscrosses the course 14 different times, TPC Craig Ranch is a par 71 course that can now be stretched out to 7,569 from the championship tees. In the first two editions of the Byron Nelson, it played as a par 72. Attempting to make the course less scoreable, in 2023, the 12th hole was shortened from 547 yards to 493 yards and turned into a par 4 instead of a par 5.

Numerous changes have been made to the course since last year. New tee boxes were added on six holes (5, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14), which have lengthened the course 155 yards. TPC Craig Ranch is now the third-longest annual PGA Tour course. Another huge change is the switch from 2.5″ Bermuda rough to 3.25″ ryegrass rough. While the greens remain bentgrass, the zoysia fairways have also been replaced with rye. Along with these alterations is the upcoming summer renovation to the course by Lanny Wadkins, which is intended to transform TPC Craig Ranch into a much tougher layout.

Designed by Tom Weiskopf in 2004, it has sprawling fairways (the 8th widest on Tour), few hazards, and benign, flat greens. The first four events at TPC Craig Ranch have been the definition of a birdie-fest. K.H. Lee bettered his 25-under winning score from 2021 with a 26-under mark in 2022. The last two years saw both Jason Day and Taylor Pendrith winning at 23-under. Overall, the course has played as one of the easiest on Tour at -2.30 per round. It put up such little defense that only five holes average over par, and it contains the highest birdie-to-bogey ratio at 2.2. TPC Craig Ranch is a scorer’s paradise that will come down to ball striking and a putting contest on the greens. 

TPC Craig Ranch puts up very little resistance in any area. While Rowlett Creek is present on many holes, it does not threaten players unless they hit a wildly errant tee shot. The only other real threat to hinder scoring would be the gusty winds that courses in Texas have a reputation for. Looking at the early weather forecast, heavy rains are supposed to pound the area on Wednesday, which will only soften the greens and allow for target practice on approach. 

Betting

Big field, easy course, scoring opportunities abound. This is a week for smaller stakes and lots of names. I don’t usually have an 8-pack of golfers, but with the long-shot nature of most of them, I’m fine with looking for guys who have that “spike week” potential in them here.

Ben Grifin +5000
Jacob Bridgeman +5000
Michael Thorbjornsen +9000
Harry Hall +10000
Gary Woodland +10000
Matti Schmid +15000
Carson Young +22500
Jhonattan Vegas +27500

Model - My Top 10 This Week

I dug around some other expert models for the week and took a peek at a “rolling Birdies or Better” model I built last April as well, but the one I’ve cropped and shared here is the main build from last year that I like quite a bit.

Scheffler is going to be tough to beat, but a low-scoring affair invites variance, especially in a full-field event with so much of the “middle class” of the PGA here.

You can view my entire model on the site, as well as a half dozen other expert models for this week’s event.

Weather

Looking a bit nasty heading in, but the wet conditions should be over by the time we put a tee in the ground on Thursday.

Friday is looking worse as the week progresses. It should be windy right off the bat with storms rolling through as well. With the timing of the storms and the 35 mph gusts it’ll bring a little hazy, it’s going to be tough to declare who is going to get the worst of it. Possible delays I reckon.

News and Notes

• It worked for JT….

• I’ve seen this video dozens of times, but still stop and watch when it pops up

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and gird your loins for the next six-week stretch

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