In case you forgot how we got here:

• The top 70 players in the FedEx standings got in this week. They’ll play a no-cut event (all three playoff events are), afterwards, the updated rankings will send the top 50 to…

• The BMW Championship in Castle Pines, Colorado. Not only that but those 50 men will then be qualified for the eight signature events in 2025. Come Sunday, the top 30 in the rankings will qualify and head to…

• The Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, where the FedExCup Champion will be crowned. I’ll hold off on talking about the handicapped starting scores until we actually get there.

• The tour will then take a week off before heading up to Napa to start the swing season with the newly named Procore Championship

Coupla other fun facts from the tour’s tournament notes:

• Byeong Hun An (No. 12) is the highest-ranked player in the FedExCup standings without a victory on the PGA TOUR.

• For the second time and first since 2013, no player moved from outside the FedExCup Playoffs bubble at the Wyndham Championship to qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs

• This week will feature:

  • Four past champions of the FedEx St. Jude Championship: Will Zalatoris (2022), Tony Finau (2021), Jason Day (2015), Adam Scott (2013)

  • Two former winners at TPC Southwind: Justin Thomas (2020 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational), Harris English (2013 FedEx St. Jude Classic)

  • Four PGA TOUR rookies: Matthieu Pavon (No. 16), Max Greyserman (No. 47), Jake Knapp (No. 50), Nick Dunlap (No. 67)

  • Three first-year PGA TOUR members: Robert MacIntyre (No. 17), Min Woo Lee (No. 62), Victor Perez (No. 70)

TPC Southwind

TPC Southwind is a par-70, 7,243-yard tree-lined course that contains undulating narrow zoysia fairways, gnarly 2.5-inch Bermuda rough, and Champion Bermuda greens. Many players who grew up in the South or who have become used to chipping and putting on Bermuda will be very comfortable here in the Florida-like climate. Players with past success like Daniel Berger repeatedly talk about how comfortable they are in this environment. Much like at East Lake in Georgia, the zoysia grass used on fairways is very beneficial for the course due to the Memphis climate which has both sweltering heat in the summer and cold bursts in the winter.

Over the past five events, the course played to 0.82 strokes under par which puts it right near the middle for Tour difficulty. Since 2004, only one winning score has been outside the 9-under to 19-under range. While it is a par-70, TPC Southwind is not a short course like Harbour Town or Pebble Beach. There are eight lengthy par-4s, and the numerous doglegs stretch the course even further.

The course also features numerous lakes, streams, and ponds which add up to 11 holes with water directly in play. In fact, TPC Southwind has the most “water balls” on Tour by far. Since 2003, TPC Southwind’s 6,166 balls in the water are the most at any PGA TOUR course during that stretch. The second highest course is TPC Sawgrass with a huge drop to 5,089. Because of all the water danger, three different holes average higher than a 5% double bogey or worse rate.

Said Webb Simpson on the reason for all the water balls, “You drive it in the fairway. You’re going to have a lot less chances to hit balls in the water. I think these water balls often come from guys who drive it in the rough on holes like 9 or 15, even 18, even 12. There are a lot of holes where in the rough you have a decision to make: Are you going to bring on the water and go for the green or are you going to lay up? It’s really hard to lay up from 150 yards.”

With just two par 5s, scoring chances will be limited. Par 4 scoring will be key as the threat of bogeys will be brought much more into play than has been seen over the past couple of weeks. Overall, there are more holes with a 17% bogey rate (ten) than a 17% birdie rate (six). While the rough isn’t ultra-penalizing, the unpredictability of the Bermuda grass results in numerous bogeys, and it becomes a very difficult track to play if you’re missing fairways and greens or splashing it into the water. The greens present another challenge as the third smallest on Tour and are heavily guarded by either water or multiple greenside bunkers.

The course itself does not have many unique holes that stand out. Most feature narrow, tree-lined fairways with either a bunker or water hazard near the landing zone. With birdies coming at a premium, players need to take advantage of the two reachable par-5s that have a combined birdie or better rate of 43%. While patience is needed to survive the many obstacles on the course, players will need to pick their spots to be aggressive as simply grinding out pars won’t get it done here.

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Betting Model

Kept it REAL simple this week. Need driving accuracy, strong middle iron play and a bit of short game since the greens aren’t terribly big. Most of the big names are on top, with Ludvig really being the only one I’m interested in so far.

Hard to take too many shots down the board with the level of golfers here, but if you do, I think the first week is the best spot for it, and at a bare minimum, I’ll have a top 10 price on Si Woo Kim as well. For some more insights into this week’s betting card, see what Noonan had to say this morning.

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Weather

It's hot as hell, with some chances for storms on Saturday. It should be much drier than last week, though.

With the small field and tee times so close together, not looking like there’ll be a wave advantage.

News and Notes

The day before the Tour Championship starts at East Lake, sixteen golf content creators will compete on the newly restored back nine. The tournament will consist of eight holes of gross stroke play and a playoff between the top four finishers.

Congrats to the Fowlers.

With all the OWGR drama, this one did get a chuckle out of me. Sitting in 9th place on a tour he’s not allowed to play on, quite the season.

I just would never leave a chance to promote Valspar Champion, Peter Malnati

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and enjoy the playoffs.

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