Great course, signature event, damn fine field, and the biggest story is… the Monday Q guy may have leaked that LIV is shutting down.

Ryan French (who runs the Monday Q Info account) tweeted about it yesterday, and I honestly may need to send a second newsletter with just the “best of” funny LIV joke tweets. The usual suspects are having a field day.

This is still developing, and nothing is confirmed by the folks who run the offshoot league yet.

But if French is right, the implications are not only big, but super confusing. We’ve seen that there is a path back, as evidenced by Koepka and Reed, but how will the PGA treat some HUGE names that are suddenly men without a tour? Rahm, DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Cam Smith, Hatton, Garcia, PHIL???? It’s shaping up to be an interesting week.

(the real breaking news? We’re still offering a full year sub for just $5 via our friends at NoVig!)

While that plays out in real time, the RBC Heritage is also happening this week at Harbor Town Golf Links, and it is genuinely a great week for bettors. Tight fairways, small greens, no cut, and a field full of players fresh off Augusta. Here is how we are approaching it:

Harbour Town Golf Links

Characterized by numerous doglegs, overhanging trees, a wide array of devilish bunkers, and minuscule greens, Harbour Town Golf Links is a coastal par 71 course that measures 7,243 yards. It is a relatively flat course with fairways flanked on all sides by a variety of trees including palmettos, oaks, and pines. There might not be a greater contradiction in courses played in consecutive weeks on Tour than going from the expansive, lengthy, and undulating Augusta National to the claustrophobic, concise, and level Harbour Town. It ranks as the 17th shortest course on Tour.

As the Bermudagrass is still mostly dormant this time of year, the tournament is played on fairways and rough overseeded with ryegrass. The rough length will be quite similar to last week at Augusta National at 1.5 inches. Greens are the second smallest on Tour at an average of only 3,700 square feet. They are overseeded with Poa Trivialis and run around 11.5 on the stimpmeter.

As the field strength has increased, the scoring average has dramatically decreased. While not a birdie fest by any means, since this became a small field signature event, scoring has averaged -1.64 per round. Over the last five years, Harbour Town ranks in the middle of the pack for scoring difficulty.

There are numerous reasons why Harbour Town can limit scoring to a degree. With trees everywhere, drives off the tee that are not hit to the proper location on the fairway could be met with hanging branches on the following approach shot. Water comes into play on nine holes with six of those affecting approach shots. Also, the second smallest greens on Tour combined with a course that is exposed to the wind from the Atlantic coast can cause GIR percentage numbers to shrink rapidly on windy days…..

READ MORE

Key Stats Model

In a high-end field, I tried to zero in on some of the factors that have been predictive at previous RBCs.

The Rabbit Hole metrics I built into my model this week:

• SG: Approach filtered to difficult conditions — 30%

• Scrambling short grass percentage — 20%

• SG: Total on Pete Dye courses (last three years) — 20%

• SG: Off the Tee filtered to less than driver courses — 20%

• Bogey avoidance in difficult scoring conditions — 10%

View Other Expert Models:

• Ron Klos 

• Pat Mayo

• Ryan Noonan

• Staff Key Stats Model

• Build your own!

Betting

Thank God for the duck hook into the woods on 18 that forced a tough putt for the champ and got me my over 275.5 strokes bet, otherwise, I’m still a little bummed out about Cam Young. Back at it this week, mostly sticking with guys that modeled well for me and have shown some skills with the ARG/Scrambling/Short Game that can set folks apart here.

Henley +2000
Si Woo Kim +3450
Sepp Straka +5000
Ryo Hisatsune +7000
Daniel Berger +9100

Henley Top 10 (ties win) +150

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How to Watch

A little simpler than last week (there is no RBC Heritage app)

TV

• Thursday: 2-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)

• Friday: 2-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)

• Saturday: 1-3 p.m. ET (Golf Channel); 3-6 p.m. ET (CBS)

• Sunday: 1-3 p.m. ET (Golf Channel); 3-6 p.m. ET (CBS)

Streaming

• Thursday: Starting at 8 a.m. on ESPN+

• Friday: Starting at 8 a.m. on ESPN+

• Saturday: Starting at 7:45 a.m. on ESPN+, (CBS broadcast 3-6 p.m. ET) available on Paramount+

• Sunday: Starting at 7:45 a.m. on ESPN+, (CBS broadcast 3-6 p.m. ET) available on Paramount+

Don’t forget to watch our preview shows as well:

Weather

Not a full field, so the “waves” are a bit closer together, plus there’s not a ton of difference between Thursday and Friday. Looking like a nice weekend with the possibility of some gusty conditions Sunday afternoon. It’s a few days out, so that’s tough to say with certainty, but it would make things interesting if the final groups got to the closing stretch by the sea and the winds were a-whippin’

News and Notes

I had forgotten all about this

This is why you never tear the tags off your Beanie Babies

Meanwhile, we’re so far behind Team EU again

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and here’s hoping giant news didn’t come up like 4 minutes after I sent this email.

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