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Off the Top

Maybe you were busy with something else and missed it, but this tourney got moved. With the Palisades fires, they opted not to hold it at Riviera this year, and we’ll be getting four rounds at Torrey Pines South Course.

1. This is now essentially a U.S. Open-Lite. Using one of the longest and most challenging courses for all four rounds will be a grind. If we combine it with this field, it will definitely take the sting out of not having football this weekend. I’m giddy.

2. The Weather looks BAD—high chances of rain Wednesday-Friday but also some nasty winds, especially during the first couple of rounds.

3. If we do get all this rain, the course will play even longer, with drives getting very little rollout. Bombers may have a bigger advantage than in nice, dry conditions.

A look at the return to Torrey, from Ron’s course preview article:

Torrey Pines - South Course

Course: Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course), San Diego, CA

Yardage: 7,765

Par: 72

Enormous length, narrow fairways, deep rough, criminally tough greens – these are just a few of the ways to describe the South Course. While mostly flat, at 7,765 yards, Torrey Pines is a monster and the longest on Tour. Winds off the coast can also severely hamper a round. Xander Schauffele commented about both of these factors. “It’s brutal. It’s mentally exhausting. The place is a hike. Just everything about it. When the wind picks up, you’re just worn out at the end of the day.”

Over the past five years, it has been the 13th-toughest course at -0.07 per round. Almost every metric is more difficult than average – from scrambling to fairways hit to GIR %.

From an agronomy standpoint, greens are Poa annua. Fairways and rough are ryegrass overseed. Torrey Pines is infamous for its thick penal four-inch rough. The course typically plays very firm, as Scott Bentley, the Deputy Director of the Golf Division for San Diego, remarked, “For the tournament, our goal is to really have dry conditions. We like the fairways to be firm and fast, and we like to see a bounce in the greens. We do expect the rough to be long and lush.”

Winners at Torrey Pines have typically fallen into two classifications – either bombers off the tee or players with elite short-game skills. From the bomber category, we have seen Luke List, Justin Rose, Jon Rahm, Scott Stallings, Tiger Woods, and Bubba Watson triumph. On the short-game side, Harris English, Patrick Reed, Jason Day, Brandt Snedeker (twice), and Ben Crane. Interestingly, many of the bombers who have won also have quality short games.

This par-72 layout has seven par-4s that play over 450 yards and two par-5s that measure over 615 yards. Golfers must take advantage of the four par-5s as they are generally the only birdie holes on the course, and possibly the only holes that will play under par for the week.

While the setting on the coast is fantastic, there is a lack of compelling hole architecture throughout Torrey Pines. The South Course often is criticized for not “architecturally” standing out enough. Almost each of the Par-4 and Par-5 holes is seemingly a replica of itself. It is very straightforward. There are no tricks. What you see is what you get.

Betting

It was not a great week for me at the WMPO outside of using Mav for one and done. Still, that’s how it goes, and I’m right back on the horse again.

I like some of the top names this week for sure, but I also saw a few numbers on the third-tier guys that were tough to resist. No placement bets, one of these guys wins if Scottie/Rory don’t.

Collin Morikawa +1700
Ludvig Aberg +2853
Tony Finau +5749
Jordan Spieth +5981
Will Zalatoris +6715

Matchup of the Week

Rasmus Hojgaard > Russell Henley -121

I like Henley and what he’s done so far this year, but just don’t know about him on this course. Rasmus is a better ball striker, better off the tee, longer off the tee and his short game is coming along. I don’t think this gets settled Friday, but a guy can dream.

Some one-and-done thoughts?

Model

We talked circles around this course on the betting research stream this afternoon and then just ended up pulling up the model we built for Torrey Pines a few weeks ago and plugging in this week’s field.

It was correct in that it showed Scottie on top, and outside of Corey Conners, stuck with big names for the most part.

Check out the whole thing on the site.

Weather

Looks Bad.

There is no way of guessing on some sort of tee time advantage at this point in the week, but it’s worth keeping an eye on considering how these greens can play in the afternoon if it dries up.

Lots of rain, lots of wind and a soggy course to start with .

News and Notes

• Interesting thoughts from Max on his game. I think I like what I’m hearing (but I still need to see the results before I bet on this guy)

• This would be electric, and they should let him do a Breaking 50 there if he wins.

• I got unreasonably excited watching this video before I Googled where this course is (not close to my house).

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and enjoy the second dose of Torrey South.

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