The Zurich Classic is the one week a year where everything you think you know about betting golf goes out the window. I suppose you can throw the Ryder/President Cups in there too, with data being very hard to use. I STILL TRIED! I did run some analysis of what sort of teams have done well in the past (it’s mostly noise, but the biggest thing was finding a balanced team rather than a great player trying to carry an average one).

It’s still a bit of a crapshoot, but I’ll be damned if I go through the week without some outright bets. As usual, it’s good to start by taking a dive into the course makeup:

TPC Louisiana

Located just south of the Mississippi River in the New Orleans suburb of Avondale, TPC Louisiana is a par-72 layout stretching 7,425 yards. While the Zurich Classic of New Orleans has been part of the PGA Tour schedule since 1958, TPC Louisiana has served as its host venue since 2005.

During its time as an individual stroke-play event through 2016, past champions included Brian Stuard, Justin Rose, Billy Horschel, and Bubba Watson. Since transitioning to a team format, scoring has reached historic lows. In 2022, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele set the team scoring record at 29-under par, only for Davis Riley and Nick Hardy to surpass it at 30-under in 2023. In 2024, Irish duo Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry captured the title in a playoff at 25-under, while Ben Griffin and Andrew Novak claimed the most recent victory at 28-under.

Opened in 2004, the course was designed by renowned architect Pete Dye in collaboration with former players Steve Elkington and Kelly Gibson. Built on a 250-acre tract of drained cypress swampland, the course features a flat layout supported by pumped river sand. Dye transformed the wetland landscape with an intricate mix of trees, lakes, mounding, and strategically placed waste areas. With 106 bunkers and water in play on seven holes, the course demands precision, while its cypress and pine-lined corridors provide a distinct and scenic Louisiana character.

At TPC Louisiana, the playing surfaces are a blend of bermudagrass fairways and rough, with TifEagle bermuda greens overseeded with Poa Trivialis. The greens are smaller than average at about 5,225 square feet and typically roll around a 12 on the stimpmeter. The rough is about two inches in length and is generally non-penal, reinforcing that this is a second-shot golf course.

The par 5s provide the best scoring opportunities, with at least three reachable in two shots for most of the field. The par 4s vary significantly in length. Four stretch beyond 475 yards while five measure under 405 yards, including the drivable 16th hole. In contrast, all four par 3s play over 200 yards and present a difficult test, with three ranking among the six toughest holes on the course….

Betting

Close with Si Woo last week, but I guess I should have trusted my model a bit more (it had Scottie and Fitzy #1 and #2). Still, I’m happy with the process when I can have any sort of Sunday sweat and hope a couple of my teams can get hot on the greens and do the same for me this week.

Found some teams that matched up with the criteria I wanted this week (and also had a reasonable price). Looking for some ball strikers that will have opportunities to score in gobs. Added the Horschel/Hoge team late after they were very close to making it and Noonan pushed me on it.

Li/Smith +2800
Eckroat/Thompson +3300
Smotherman/Putnam +4500
Horschel/Hoge +6000

Noonan’s Card is smaller, but we did go over some thoughts and ideas for betting and DFS in the weekly betting show.

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How to Watch

TV

Thursday: 3–6 p.m. (Golf Channel)

Friday: 3–6 p.m. (Golf Channel)

Saturday: 1–3 p.m. (Golf Channel) & 3–6 p.m. (CBS)

Sunday: 1–3 p.m. (Golf Channel) & 3–6 p.m. (CBS)

Streaming

Thursday: 8 a.m.-6 p.m. on ESPN+

Friday: 8:45 a.m.-6 p.m. on ESPN+

Saturday: 9 a.m.-6 p.m. on ESPN+; CBS Broadcast available on Paramount+

Sunday: 9 a.m.-6 p.m. on ESPN; CBS Broadcast available on Paramount+

Weather

Pretty nice week down in the Bayou. Afternoons will have a bit more wind, but that’s how things go at most places. There are some heavier winds coming in for the VERY end of the tournament Sunday afternoon, but what are you gonna do with that information? Not bet on the teams you think might be in the final groups?!?

News and Notes

fewer events isn’t great, but I guess I understand the process of starting the season a bit later (and maybe less competing against the NFL playoffs, I suppose)

Going to get my first round of the year in this week, and will try this

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and remember that teamwork makes the dream work

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