Texas Children's Houston Open

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A bit of a repeat of last week, but in Texas? A few top names, a ton of long shots, and a course that should and could challenge a bit (if it’s windy).

The biggest question mark is how the track will play now that we’re contesting this one in the spring rather than the normal swing season fall placement. Already seeing remarks and reports that it’ll be much softer and of course, we’ve gotten a massive change in the agronomy: the rough is ryegrass rather than the Bermuda we were used to seeing. Guessing we’ll see some easier golf than in the past just based on the ability to not worry about the rough as much and just let some of the big drivers wind up and let ‘er rip.

Unless the winds really kick up, this should mean lower scores than normal.

Which leads back to the final tie-in from last week. Easy conditions often stop the top players from showing what separates them from the crowd, so maybe we continue the theme of 2024: crazy longshots near the top. I’ve looked for a few bombs in the pricing this week and think there are some triple-digit odds worth looking at. Speaking of, 350/1 Peter Malnati everyone:

Let’s let Ron guide us through this course and what to look for this week:

Memorial Park Golf Course

Memorial Park Golf Course is a long Par 70 that sits at 7,412 yards. Not only is it the fourth-longest course in the annual Tour rotation, but it has also played as the sixth-toughest annual course with golfers averaging 0.80 strokes over par over the past three years. It initially appears like a bomber’s paradise, but the past two years have shown that it is a course that also demands accuracy, touch around the greens, and patience.

The course features overseeded Ryegrass in the fairways and rough with firm “bouncy” greens that typically run at fast speeds between 12-13 on the stimpmeter. With the greens being overseeded with Poa trivialis, it will be interesting to see if they remain as firm in the spring weather. With a lack of penal bunkers and rough along with little water hazard danger, the heavily contoured green complexes along with potential windy conditions are among the course’s most prominent defenses.

Overall, it is a flat parkland course, but Doak did a great job of creating the potential for uneven lies in the fairways and in the short-grass areas around the greens. The exposed ravine that cuts across the front nine also adds a degree of scenery that is unexpected until you witness it first-hand.

“It’s really a course of misses,” said Tour veteran Kramer Hickok. “It’s not a course of how well you’re hitting it. You could hit it great and have a couple misses in the wrong spots and make easy doubles.” Scottie Scheffler chimed in on the course’s difficulty by saying, “It’s a place where you can score, it’s just really difficult to. It’s a challenging golf course. I really appreciate that. I feel I get a little tired of playing the golf courses where you’ve got to shoot 20-something under to win.”


Last Week: Back in the winner’s circle! Doug Ghim may have played like garbage over the weekend, but Aaron Rai didn’t play the weekend at all!

Doug Ghim > Aaron Rai -120 💰 (YTD 8-5, +2.46u)

Houston Best Bet: Thomas Detry > Davis Thompson +100 (DK)

In this full tournament matchup, I make Detry a favorite in my pricing.  Looking at all rounds on fast greens over the past two years, Thompson rates near the bottom of the field, and I worry that his current putting woes continue on these challenging greens.  Detry also leads Thompson by a fair bit in scrambling.  Both are average to slightly above average in distance off the tee.  Thompson will need his irons to be incredibly consistent if he hopes to hang here.


Another tough week to sort out what’s predictive for a couple of reasons:

  1. This tournament hasn’t been one that’s been predictive year-over-year anyway

  2. It moved from the fall to the spring and the rough is going to be way easier.

We tried anyway. A ton of approach-shot data, but we also wanted to find the bombers and the guys who can chip a bit with these tough-to-hold greens.

  • SG : Total - 2024 Rounds only

  • Driving Distance - 2024 Rounds only

  • SG: Approach - Last 20 Rounds

  • SG: Approach - Last 50 Rounds

  • Scrambling from Short Grass - L:ast Two years

  • Three-Putt Avoidance - Last two years

One big issue: the data points we used don’t factor in any injuries. We don’t usually get much in the way of a heads-up, but I guess tread lightly with Wyndham this week.

My favorite outright bet this week: Keith Mitchell +3750

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Classic PM/AM wave advantage brewing with some heavier winds looking like they’ll roll in on Friday afternoon. Currently forecasting the winds to kick up in the afternoon on both days over the weekend, which checks out. It could be fun to watch the final groups on Sunday if the Texas breezes bring it to close out March.

Quote from local and golf outright slayer Link Calhoun: One of the nicest weeks of the year temp wise, low 50s in the morning, 70s in the day, stray light showers all week, normal random 15mph gusts. We have maybe a month of spring, and this is it.

News and Notes

Something I hadn’t thought of since it’s non-consecutive, but Scottie is a massive favorite here and it’d be a third straight win for him. J-Ray informing me that we could have the ultra-rare triple-double on the PGA and LPGA this Sunday.

On that note, our guy DJ was the last man to do it:

I don’t have enough time to bet the DP World Tour most weeks, but I might try to catch some coverage of this week’s just based on the shots of the course so far.

Finally, a “take it with a grain of salt because everyone wants to win every week” stat. We’ll hear even more about this next week, but getting inside the top-50 OWGR is massive for the guys without Masters invites.

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As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and root against Scottie if you must

ONE LAST THING: We’ve always just put our golf content on the YouTube channel with other shows from our parent company since we were lazy, but it’s probably better to have a golf-only YouTube spot. So, starting next week all betting and DFS shows will be on said new channel. Do me a solid and subscribe if you could ⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇