Off the Top

1. It's a bit of a weird one (still an awesome course) as it’s a par 70, but it's also one of the longest tracks on tour. There are five par 3s and only three Par 5s.

2. It’s been rainy, and it looks like it’ll rain again. This might be playing fairly soft.

3. Back to the length: it’ll be a far cry from the past two weeks of clubbing down. Driver is coming out of the bag a TON this week. Noonan has more on this:

A look at the course from Ron’s preview article (very much free to read)

Memorial Park

Memorial Park Golf Course is a long Par 70 that measures 7,475 yards. Not only is it the second-longest course in the annual Tour rotation, but it has also played as the eighth-toughest annual course with golfers averaging 0.66 strokes over par per round. Along with it being a bomber’s paradise, it is a course that also demands accuracy, touch around the greens, and patience.

The course features overseeded Ryegrass in the fairways and rough with firm “bouncy” greens that typically run at fast speeds between 12-13 on the stimpmeter. With the seasonal change to Poa trivialis last year, the greens were not as firm as they were in the fall – making the approach game a bit easier. With a lack of penal bunkers and rough along with little water hazard danger, the heavily contoured green complexes along with potential windy conditions are among the course’s most prominent defenses.

Overall, it is a flat parkland course, but Doak did a great job of creating the potential for uneven lies in the fairways and in the short-grass areas around the greens. The exposed ravine that cuts across the front nine also adds a degree of scenery that is unexpected until you witness it first-hand.

“It’s really a course of misses,” said Tour veteran Kramer Hickok. “It’s not a course of how well you’re hitting it. You could hit it great and have a couple misses in the wrong spots and make easy doubles.” Scottie Scheffler chimed in on the course’s difficulty by saying, “It’s a place where you can score, it’s just really difficult to. It’s a challenging golf course. I really appreciate that. I feel I get a little tired of playing the golf courses where you’ve got to shoot 20-something under to win.”

New Partner!

We’ve partnered with Drafters to get you another way to find yourself on the right side of the paywall for much less. The article explains it in more detail, but simply sign up, use our code, deposit, and play $10, and we’ll send you a promo code for 90 days free. Drafters has best ball and pick’em contests, and if you’re after more than just the smash and grab to get to the Rabbit Hole, they will also match your first deposit up to $100 using our code.

Betting

I didn’t have Hovland, but I applaud those who saw a big number on a good player and said, “it might not be this week, but he’ll figure it out.”

As far as this week goes, it does feel like the Scottie and Rory prices are pretty fair, meaning they win this tournament an awful lot of times, forcing me to take it easy.

Still, I found a handful of guys with some nice numbers off the tee that can either hit the long irons well or have great hands around the green (or both in Tony’s case). Good Luck, have fun and hit me up with any sneaky dark horse long shots you’re playing here.

Tony Finau +3000
Davis Thompson +3254
Min Woo Lee +3650
Kurt Kitayama +9000

Kitayama Top 20 +260 (ties included)
Potgieter Top 20 +290 (ties included)

Houston Rabbit Hole Model

Kept it simple this week with the obvious things that matter.

1. Driving Distance on this long-ass course (I used carry since it’s been rainy)

2. Long Irons on this long-ass course (went with 150+ from any fairway OR rough)

3. Around the Green play for these hard-to-hit greens and tricky collection areas

4. Threw in some overall form just to keep it on the level.

See the whole model here: https://betspertsgolf.com/custom-report/19878

Also check out expert models from Andy Lack, Ryan Noonan, Ron Klos, Matt Vincenzi, Joe Idone, John Haslbauer, and more.

Weather

Very good chances of rain Thursday and Friday, so it’ll be hard to make assumptions on waves this far out. The winds could also be into the 20s after lunch on both days, so depending on any delays or stoppages, the waves could be really goofed up and making any guesses this early seems like folly.

I’d just keep an eye on things and maybe text your buddy who lives in Katy or Sugar Land

News and Notes

• This has been the buzz for a while, but with a half dozen contenders for a Green Jacket in the field this week, it’ll be fun to overanalyze their performance in Texas.

• Speaking of majors, the LIV boys are finding ways to make their way into them, via Asian Tour points.

• and finally, I can’t pass up an opportunity to post a photo of the most unbothered man to ever do it.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and TWO MORE WEEKS TIL AUGUSTA

Twitter | YouTube | Website | The Rabbit Hole