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Congrats to Scottie and his family on the new arrival!

Genuinely great news. Now let's talk about what his withdrawal means for the rest of us.

The first thing you need to understand about a big name withdrawing is that there is a window. Sportsbooks do not adjust instantly. When Scheffler pulled out Tuesday morning, every other golfer in the field inherited a piece of his win equity, but the books take time to catch up and redistribute those odds.

Most of you experienced bettors understand this window, but for those who may be new to this or haven’t run into it before… There is a 20-30 minute period of time where prices are incorrect (in your favor)!

That gap between the news breaking and the market adjusting is real money if you are paying attention. If you were on top of this one Tuesday morning, you were getting prices on the remaining field that will not exist by Thursday. File that away for the next time it happens, because it will. Some books work faster than others, so maybe keep some notes on that too. Understanding where you should head next time can be helpful as well.

Now, as I was saying, Memorial Park got a lot more interesting. Scheffler was sitting at +350 before he pulled out, which tells you everything about how wide open the rest of the field actually is.

Brooks Koepka is back at a course he literally helped design. Min Woo Lee is defending and trying to become the first back-to-back winner in Houston since Vijay Singh did it twenty years ago. Chris Gotterup is quietly becoming one of the most dangerous players in any field he enters. Memorial Park rewards bombers who can also think their way around some genuinely tricky green complexes, and that combination narrows things down more than the odds board suggests.

Two weeks before Augusta, everyone who is still playing is either tuning up or chasing a Masters invite or both.

Before we get into the picks, it’s nice to understand what Memorial Park actually demands from you. Ron went deep on the course this week:

Memorial Park Golf Course

Memorial Park Golf Course is a long par 70 measuring 7,475 yards, making it the second-longest layout in the annual Tour rotation. From 2020–2022, the course played to an average of +0.80 strokes over par per round. Since shifting to the spring, however, it has become significantly more scoreable, averaging -0.70 strokes per round.

While widely regarded as one of the most pronounced “bomber’s” courses on Tour, Memorial Park still demands a complete skill set—combining distance with accuracy, touch around the greens, and patience.

The course features overseeded ryegrass throughout the fairways and rough, paired with typically firm, “bouncy” greens that run fast—generally between 12–13 on the stimpmeter. With the transition to Poa trivialis in 2024, however, the greens have played slightly less firm than in the fall, easing the difficulty of approach shots.

With minimal penal bunkering, manageable rough, and limited water hazards, the course’s primary defenses lie in its heavily contoured green complexes and the potential for windy conditions.

Overall, Memorial Park is a relatively flat, parkland style layout, but Tom Doak did an excellent job introducing subtle nuance by creating the potential for uneven lies in the fairways and throughout the short grass areas around the greens. The exposed ravine that cuts across the front nine also adds an element of unexpected visual intrigue, something that is not fully appreciated until seen in person….

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Model

I won here last year, so it was tough not to just run back the 2025 model. With the changes in weather, though, I did make some minor tweaks and still looked at the ARG play a bit before deciding on anything, making the betting card.

This week’s model (see it here):

• Carry Distance (large sample) - it's a long course, length helps

• Driving Distance + Ball Speed (last two months) - who's actually bombing it right now

• Approach from distance - you're hitting a lot of long irons this week

• A dash of recent form to close it out

Not sure where to start on your model this week? We’ve put together a list of stats you may want to consider for Memorial Park:

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Simple stuff here: sign up for a new NoVig account, get a code for a full year of access to our data, tools, and content. All you need to do is make a $5 purchase. Detail below:

Betting

TWO WINS IN A ROW! Congrats if you bet Mr. Fitz! It’s nice to finally get some traction after a bit of a slow start to the season.

Looking to keep it rolling here, and while I personally got much better numbers than I’m going to list, it feels scummy to send out a newsletter on Wednesday morning with prices that vanished the moment Meredith Scheffler’s water broke.

So, the best that I could find at the books I use at the moment:

Gotterup +1650

Penge +2550

Nicolai Hojgaard +3000

Adam Scott +4000

Michael Brennan +10850

And as always, don’t forget to read Ryan’s manifesto for the week:

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How to Watch

TV:

Thursday: 3-7 p.m. (Golf Channel)

Friday: 3-7 p.m. (Golf Channel)

Saturday: 1-3 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3-6 p.m. (NBC)

Sunday: 1-3 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3-6 p.m. (NBC)

Streaming:

Thursday: 3-7 p.m. (NBC Sports App), 8:15 a.m.-7 p.m. (ESPN+)

Friday: 3-7 p.m. (NBC Sports App), 8:15 a.m.-7 p.m. (ESPN+)

Saturday: 1-3 p.m. (NBC Sports App), 3-6 p.m. (Peacock), 8:15 a.m.-7 p.m. (ESPN+)

Sunday: 1-3 p.m. (NBC Sports App), 3-6 p.m. (Peacock), 8:15 a.m.-7 p.m. (ESPN+)

Weather

Mentioned heavily on the shows this week, this is NOT the same type of weather or conditions we saw here last year. It was wet, soft, and receptive in 2025.

This week, we’ll see a much drier version of the course. Balls will roll farther on drives, but the greens should be much tougher to hold. They may try to water a bit, but with temps in the 80s and wind, it may not do much good. ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.

With Thursday and Friday looking pretty similar, I’m not adjusting for a wave advantage this week. The Texas winds will kick up, but almost everyone will have to deal with ‘em.

News and Notes

A VERY interesting development heading into the first time we’ll be seeing Rahm with the rest of the tour this year:

This may be the best gnome yet

If you are handicapping how guys play after they do TGL that week, please also make sure you’re adjusting for guys who have to work a shift in a chicken shack

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and maybe start prepping the pimento.

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