John Deere Classic

Bets, Course Overview, Weather, and my Model

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Holiday weekend. Rain in the forecast. What else am I gonna do?

As we discussed on the betting show, (and Ron agrees with it in his preview article), this course is pretty decent! It’s not a good field, and it’s a terrible spot in the calendar with the Scottish Open on deck and the Open Championship just two weeks away. But all in all, this is a good set up, even if the scoring will be low.

It's another great week to take some punts on some long shots and find some guys who aren’t in form but can play lights out when the scoring levers are turned to easy mode.

A look at this week’s course from Ron Klos’ course preview article:

TPC Deere Run

Located in the “Quad Cities” region of Silvis, Illinois, TPC Deere Run is a public par-71 course that measures 7,289 yards. The past home of an Arabian horse farm, the 385 acres of land that TPC Deere Run comprises is full of American history. The land’s past includes Native American settlements, coal mining, cattle breeding and farming. Located in one of the most rural settings on the Tour, the course is full of natural beauty, including the rolling terrain along the Rock River, elevation changes, and perfectly framed oak trees highlighted by numerous ponds and ravines.

After reading about nothing but high praise for this course, TPC Deere Run might be the most underrated annual course on Tour. It hasn’t been on any national top-100 public rankings and isn’t in a prime location. The Iowa/Illinois border might not evoke images of beautiful hilly landscapes, but this course has fantastic routing and movement throughout the property as the holes switch directions back and forth. Like all TPC courses, it is gorgeously maintained with bentgrass fairways, Kentucky bluegrass rough, and bentgrass greens.

While TPC Deere Run is not a challenging course, the sloping fairways, the elevation changes and the tight dogleg holes will ask players to use their entire full bag of clubs. Over the past five events it has averaged 1.39 shots under par which makes it the ninth easiest course played in the Tour’s annual rotation.

The course’s main defense lies in its 4″ mix of Kentucky bluegrass and fescue rough. For whatever reason, this rough is much more penal than what we saw in Detroit, ranking as the third toughest course on approach from the thick grass. And while fairways are wide, they are undulating in certain spots which funnel drives towards the rough. The course also “gently” bites back with numerous elevated greens which are surrounded by some tricky short-grass runoff areas.


Last week looked good off the jump, but a 2nd round 65 from Ryo sunk me.

The roller coaster continues. Adam Schenk > Ryo Hisatsune -115 (FD) ❌

YTD: 13-11-1, +0.91u

Matchup for the Week: Sepp Straka > Sungjae Im +100 (DK)

I love Sungjae, and he’s easily one of the top golfers in this field, but man, I have fallen in love with Sepp’s skill set/profile on this course. I don’t want to bet him outright at this price per se, but I do want some exposure to someone I see as having an incredibly high floor, given his ball-striking accuracy.

Today’s betting show with Noonan talked me into a few outrights for the week. I spent a bit of time shopping them around and landed on:

Mark Hubbard +6000
Neal Shipley +7798
Dylan Wu +12968
Nate Lashley +15000
(and of course Kohles to top 20 for the guy in the comments)

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Lots of names at the top of my list that are closer to the middle of the betting board. Went with Driving Accuracy, Good Drive %, Proximity, Fairway Proximity 100-150, Birdie or Better %, and Putting on Bentgrass as my model inputs this week. Check out the rest of the model as well as Ron’s, Noonan’s, Andy Lack’s & Matt Vincenzi’s.


The Midwest has seen plenty of rain so far this summer, so I’d expect the conditions to start and continue to be pretty soft. (The area is currently under a flood watch and a Tornado watch.)

Both afternoons look fairly windy, but the Friday afternoon gusts seem to be the heaviest right now. So, it looks like the PM/AM wave should have a slight bump.

News and Notes

It appears that Joost Luiten has won his battle and will be able to represent his country in Paris.

Mild food for thought if you’re still stuck and can’t pick an outright:

These hats are terrible

This content is fantastic.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and run hot. Another major coming soon.