The Florida Swing concludes this week, but certainly does not end with a whimper.

After three weeks of sunshine and some signature events, the Tour makes one final stop at Innisbrook before packing up and heading to Texas. The Copperhead Course is a legitimate test, the kind of tree-lined, tight-fairway grind that separates the ball strikers from everyone else.

While we saw a handful of WDs after the Players, the field here is still pretty strong! Xander Schauffele is here, coming off a solo third at Sawgrass and playing some of the most consistent golf of his season. Hovland is back defending. Brooks Koepka is making his first trip to Innisbrook since 2022. There is plenty to work with.

Texas is next, then Augusta. But that is a conversation for another week. Right now there is a $9 million purse and a Snake Pit waiting. Let's get into it by looking at the course with an excerpt from Ron’s course preview article:

Copperhead

Sitting on a beautiful stretch of property on the Pinellas Peninsula, just minutes from the Gulf of Mexico near Tampa Bay, the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 layout that measures 7,352 yards. With extremely tight fairways, numerous doglegs, and a majority of holes playing on the longer side, Innisbrook sets up as one of the most demanding courses players will face this year. With driver used on only 54 percent of tee shots, the course effectively plays even longer.

Innisbrook demands the ability to hit every type of shot. Said Zach Johnson on the equality of the course, “The beauty of this golf course is that we have seen individuals that hit it left-to-right, right-to-left, maul it and absolutely kill it, and guys that plot their way around. We’ve seen the Furyks win. Sean O’Hair hits it long. Paul Casey is not short. So we have seen every style of golf win here and that’s the beauty of a really good golf course. I feel like it separates and rewards quality golf.”

While the scoring environment can be challenging, with the winning score averaging 11 under par over the past dozen years, it is also considered a very fair test of golf. According to anonymous player surveys, it is one of the players’ favorite courses to compete on. Packard explained why he believed that was the case: “Copperhead is a tough golf course but it is fair. I designed it so that if you hit a good shot you will be rewarded. There are no gimmicks. I wanted you to have to use every club in your bag.” Scoring is so difficult here that the course has produced the second fewest eagles and the fewest birdies per 72 holes.

Along with tight fairways and several water hazards, the numerous elevation changes, tricky bunkers, and sloping greens all combine to make Innisbrook the demanding test that it is…..

Model

As always, my Rabbit Hole model is mainly focused on looking into course fit, finding guys who have high floors/high ceilings on the track we’ll be playing. This week I went with:

• Heavy on Approach using 2026 numbers, focused on short-term play

• Ball striking and OTT stats on "less than driver" stops

• Some longer-term T2G play to help balance out guys with fewer rounds so far this year

• A smidge of "long par 3" efficiency due to the setup here

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Survivor Madness!

Betting

Easy win last week! Cam Young had it in the bag all day Sunday; we just didn’t know it.

Felt great to get one on the board after some near misses so far. Great that Noonan had him as well (as always at a better number). Now it’s time to go back to back.

As I mentioned on the betting show this week, I am sticking with ball strikers that modeled well and had prices I could agree with. Fitzy is one of the favorites, but matches the course well and can carry over what he’s been doing of late and easily win this thing.

Ryo is the most popular name this week, it would seem, but I don’t believe in mushes or jinxes, so I’ll ride with him as well. He finished highly here last year (which has been a signal) and looks great in my approach and GIR data.

Thor doesn’t have the history here that I’d like, but was too hard to ignore at that price considering his tee-to-green play. Ended up playing him top 20 as well (along with another longshot ballstriker in Davey Ford).

Outrights

Matt Fitzpatrick +1476
Ryo Histasune +3652
Thorbjorn Olesen +9000

Thorbjorn Olesen T20 +275
David Ford T20 +300

As always, don’t forget to check out Ryan’s betting card:

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How to Watch

TV

Thursday: 2 p.m. – 6 p.m.: Golf Channel

Friday: 2 p.m. – 6 p.m.: Golf Channel

Saturday: 1 p.m. – 3 p.m.: Golf Channel/3 p.m. – 6 p.m.: NBC

Sunday: 1 p.m. – 3 p.m.: Golf Channel/3 p.m. – 6 p.m.: NBC

Streaming

Thursday: 7:30 a.m. – 6 p.m.: ESPN+ (Featured Groups). 2 p.m. – 6 p.m.: NBC Sports App

Friday: 7:30 a.m. – 6 p.m.: ESPN+ (Featured Groups). 2 p.m. – 6 p.m.: NBC Sports App

Saturday: 7:45 a.m. – 6 p.m.: ESPN+ (Featured Groups). 1 p.m. – 3 p.m.: NBC Sports App. 3 p.m. – 6 p.m.: Peacock

Sunday: 7:45 a.m. – 6 p.m.: ESPN+ (Featured Groups). 1 p.m. – 3 p.m.: NBC Sports App. 3 p.m. – 6 p.m.: Peacock

Weather

Looking pretty decent! Some afternoon gusts in the 20mph range, but looking fairly consistent across the week based on a few other weather sites.

The past five years of data here have less than a quarter stroke difference between AM/PM scoring, and I think it’ll be more of the same with no real wave advantage.

News and Notes

Caddy Updates!

Mandatory Military Service Updates!

Please don’t spend $200 on this, just reach out and I’ll give you my Pimento Cheese recipe.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and watch for snakes.

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