Akshay! I’m not sure which superstition to attribute this to! I never really put all my outrights in the newsletter (did last week, right off the top). Also, we decided to move all the video content to a new, golf-only, YouTube channel, and boom, first Betting Preview show with Noonan and we’re both on Bhatia at the right time.

Either way, it was a bizarre wave of stress that built over the course of Sunday afternoon. I was minding my own business with a big lead and then out of nowhere, Denny McCarthy goes and does what he does. The fatalist in me was almost certain that Akshay was missing that putt on 18 to destroy a ticket that just a few hours earlier was damn near a sure thing. Sometimes you get lucky, that’s half the battle. Congrats to anyone else who played Bhatia.

Since it’s a major week, I just wanted to touch base and let you know what content was on deck for the week, as well as my early thoughts on modeling and betting this tournament.

100% Free Masters Content For You So Far:

Ron’s EXTENSIVE Course Preview:

Noonan’s Players Guide:

First Look Show:

Model

Even with any LIV data, this is a messy thing to try and sort out since it’s difficult to gauge the motivation and level of competition on the new tour. I’ll try anyway and maybe rely a bit more on the eye test than I do some weeks.

My first run, using Form, Approach, SG: TOT at Majors, Putting on fast bent greens, and Distance from the edge of Fairway.

It likely gets the top two right, but I’ll still be doing some extra research to see how highly I should be rating the top LIV players as we go. The samples are fairly large, so it’s giving Viktor and Cam Smith a bit too much love. And of course, Corey Conners is a model darling, as always.

Bets so far:

Xander +1600
Brooks +2500
Niemann +2800

My Favorite Market

Normally my favorite market was “Hole in One - Yes”, but over the years the market has slid too far away and is getting damn close to being value on the “No”. The Market I’m most excited about this year is the top debutant.

We’ve heard plenty about how much course history matters here and how long it’s been since Fuzzy Zoeller did what he did, but man this is a loaded class this year.

We’ve got a Major Champion in Clark, a golfer who was picked for the winning side in last year’s Ryder Cup, the two men who dueled it out on Sunday, both finishing NINE SHOTS clear of the field.

Even further down, Jaegar has been someone who seemed to be close to winning for a while now. Hojgaard was also on that Ryder Cup team, Pavon is looking like the real deal and the young guns like Dunlap, Eckroat, and Hisatsune are all dangerous. (I couldn’t mention ‘23 rookie of the year in a sentence that used the words “young guns”, but I like him and Knapp as well).

I’ll be betting on Bhatia, not just out of respect for what he did for me last week, but he’s also sort of a nice course fit here. Hopefully, that shoulder is fine.

Odds and Ends

A big overshadowed by the men’s major coming up here, but quietly Nelly Korda is destroying the field right now.

Lost in the shuffle, part 2: Jordan won a damn Lexus!

If Deki does this it may cause a big enough tizzy for the committee to change the rules on that No. 1 fairway being out of bounds between the first and second rounds.

I’ve never been, but I usually make some Pimento Cheese at home to get into the spirit of the week, have one sandwich and throw the rest out in a few days.

We’ve seen this photo a million times and I don’t care, it’s just so much swag in one frame.

Finally, a betting note: THESE ARE SOME BIG NAMES.

I’ll be back Wednesday with another handful of thoughts, stats, and, of course, bets. I don’t mean to complain about hitting a winner, but the only thing worse for bankroll management than a major is a major right after you hit an outright and can justify spending some of that sweet, sweet Valero money.

If you want to join me in doing some light modeling, you know where I’ll be ⬇