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Masters Week. The Data Is In.
The form is there. The course history checks out. Here are our picks for the green jacket.
Andy Molitor
April 08, 2026
I can’t just hit you over the head with a bunch of cliches here, but… it truly is the best week of the year.
No other major compares, and (maybe the best part) the amount of golf we’re able to watch/stream/listen to is sick compared to normal weeks, where NBC shows 2 hours of round one in the afternoon with 48 minutes of commercials and an interview with a corporate sponsor. Guy with a sick multi-screen setup: this is your time to shine.
Even as a known Rory-hater, I’m not sure we’ll be able to top last year, but here’s hoping for another first timer and some special moments down the stretch.
On to the meat of the week, Ron’s preview and how we’re betting this one:
Augusta National
From the towering Georgia pines and flowering magnolia trees to the lush green fairways and immaculately manicured white sand bunkers, Augusta National Golf Club is a pristine wonder to behold. Countless characteristics make the course both timeless and imposing, including the dramatic elevation changes, the thoughtful routing of the holes, the ever present risk reward decisions, the brilliance of Amen Corner, and the treacherous slopes of the green complexes.
Augusta National Golf Club is a par 72 that stretches to 7,565 yards, making it the seventh longest course in the annual Tour rotation. With a premium placed on strategic decision making, every hole presents players with bailout options if the goal is to escape with par. At the same time, birdie opportunities are plentiful for those willing to take on the inherent risk that defines so many holes across this iconic layout.
Over the past four tournaments, the average score has been +1.34 strokes per round, which ranks as the toughest annual course on Tour. Only one of the par-3 holes plays over 180 yards, yet due to the bunkering and difficult green complexes, they rank as the second-toughest group of par-3s, averaging +0.14 strokes.
The four par-5s are the holes that bring the most excitement to the course each year. One of the shortest groups of par-5s on Tour averaging only 564 yards per hole, each is reachable in two shots and averages a birdie or better rate at 39.7%. With eagle chances possible on each, along with danger areas, they are the essence of risk-reward holes. This is especially true on the 13th and 15th holes where stray approaches will be eaten by the water hazards.
Since 2010, 72% of scoring has come on the par-5 holes. And since 2017, Masters champions are a combined -67 on the par-5s. The last four winners – Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler (twice), Jon Rahm, and Hideki Matsuyama – had 83% of their scoring come on the par 5s. In the graphic below, you can see just how important par 5 scoring is compared to the par 3 and par 4 holes…..
Course Fit Model
I did go look at my 2024 and 2025 models a bit, and didn’t deviate a ton as this is a formula you don’t need to deviate much from if you’re looking for course fit.
SG: Tee to Green (course history at Augusta)
Driving Distance
Total Driving
Proximity from 200+ yards
SG: Tee to Green (past 12 months)
GIR %
SG: Short Game
The names at the top certainly make sense, but as always, when you make a course fit model and use a decent sample size of data, you have to inject your own context. Collin is clearly hurt, Rory might be, and most of the LIV golfers simply aren’t getting the benefit of a large sample of data and should be re-examined a bit as well.
Check out other Expert models on-site from Ryan Noonan, Ron Klos, Pat Mayo, and more…
Augusta Checklist
Check out Noonan’s Player Guide (free)
Enter our Splash Tiers Pool and win $225
Learn a bit about the 2026 Amateurs and Debutants
Check out the other Expert Models and see the Staff Consensus Rankings
Subscribe to our YouTube Channel (please, it helps us a lot)
Remember that it’s ok to make a bad bet on your favorite golfer this week
Take Advantage of our limited-time $5 offer for a year of Premium Access
Watch one of our preview shows (at 1.5x if you need to)
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Betting
Close with Hisatsune last week, but close doesn’t count when you’re someone who can’t bet each ways.
Still landed on my guys for this week: two LIV (I guess Reed is now just a European guy) that have been playing lights out while a bit off the radar this spring, and two guys that I love as course fits here that now aren’t loveable losers anymore. Cam Young could be on the cusp of a dangerously successful career now that he’s got some win equity. Tommy winning would make my heart the happiest.
Outrights
Jon Rahm +1200
Cam Young +2387
Tommy Fleetwood +2500
Patrick Reed +4000
Props:
Cam Young > Bryson (1st round matchup) +100
Winning Score: Over 275.5 -130
Justin Thomas misses the cut +215
Kristoffer Reitan missed the cut -105
Highest Completed Round Score: over 85.5 +120
Noonan’s Stuff for the week:
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How to Watch
First off, get the damn app. I shouldn’t have to tell you this. Put it on your phone, but it on your tablet, put it on your kid’s iPad. You can pull up streams, rewatch individual shots, and (my favorite part), if and when you have to leave the room with your TV to go get the kids from school or whatever, the live radio feed is pretty damn decent.
TV
Thursday: 3-7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Friday: 3-7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Saturday: 2-7 p.m. on CBS
Sunday: 2-7 p.m. on CBS
Streaming
Again, download the app to get the most of it, or watch stuff at Masters.com as well
Thursday: 8:30 a.m. -7 p.m. on CBSSports.com, CBS Sports app, and Paramount+; 1-3 p.m. on Prime Video
Friday: 8:30 a.m. -7 p.m. on CBSSports.com, CBS Sports app, and Paramount+; 1-3 p.m. on Prime Video
Saturday: 10 a.m. -7 p.m. on CBSSports.com, CBS Sports app, and Paramount+; 12-2 p.m. is the early main broadcast coverage on Paramount+, TV Simulcast after 2.
Sunday: 10 a.m. -7 p.m. on CBSSports.com, CBS Sports app, and Paramount+; 12-2 p.m. is the early main broadcast coverage on Paramount+, TV Simulcast after 2.
Weather
One of the bigger stories of the week: it’s been dry here in Georgia. The course will play a little shorter, but holding these greens will be tougher and I would think scoring will be slightly more challenging than in previous years.
The winds don’t seem too bad outside of Thursday, with the morning of the ceremonial tee shots looking like the worst of it for now. The weekend looks sublime and shouldn’t affect the golf.
News and Notes
People have seen my Pimento Cheese recipe already, so this is a nice addition:
TIL (maybe I knew this and forgot, it’s been a long time)
This is 100x cooler than a hat that says “SKIP IT”
As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and HELLO FRIENDS!
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