Course Report: Not much has changed. It’s a TPC course in the middle of a suburban neighborhood; what do you want them to do? Move the tee box into someone's backyard? It’s cooler, and the course is soft-ish. I’ll walk it in a bit and tweet out any thoughts I have as I take in some of the Pro-Am.

Not a ton to figure out this week about what type of profile can win, but there is a huge existential question bettors and DFS players have to ask. Are you scared of Scottie? It’s been months since he’s won, but this isn’t the type of course that’s going to give him much trouble, and maybe even just an “okay” putting performance gets him over the top again due to the massive advantages he has with his ball-striking and overall skill.

I dunno. If you’re worried, there are “without Scottie” markets, or E/W bets. If not, there are plenty of live names with big drives and approach game chops that can go low here. Same goes for DFS; there are a plethora of cheap names that have nice upside to pair with a massive Scheffler salary.

Either way you choose, let’s take a peek at the course via Ron’s preview article:

TPC Twin Cities

Located in the “Land of 10,000 Lakes,” TPC Twin Cities is a flat, exposed par 71 measuring 7,431 yards. Designed by Arnold Palmer with input from Minnesota native Tom Lehman, the course  features bentgrass fairways and greens, native prairie grasses, and 27 bodies of water framed by mature oak, spruce, and pine trees. From an agronomy standpoint, the rough is a four inch blend of bluegrass and fescue, while the bentgrass greens average 6,500 square feet and typically run between 12 and 12.5 on the Stimpmeter. The course also features 72 bunkers and water comes into play on 13 of the 18 holes, more than almost any venue on the PGA TOUR.

Architecturally, TPC Twin Cities tends to fall flat. Many holes blend together because of the repetitive use of water hazards, giving the course more of a Florida feel than one in the upper Midwest. The abundance of homes lining the fairways also detracts from the natural beauty of the property, making the overall experience feel more manufactured than memorable. Strategically, however, the design succeeds in creating constant decision making. Players are repeatedly asked whether to challenge water for a shorter approach or play conservatively and face a longer iron into receptive greens.

Before the inaugural event in 2019, tournament founder Hollis Cavner gave a brutally honest description of how organizers envisioned the course playing. “We want birdies and train wrecks, and we don’t want to be the hardest golf course on the TOUR.” That philosophy has played out almost perfectly. While TPC Twin Cities annually ranks among the easiest stops on TOUR for birdies and eagles, it is far from a true birdie fest. Since becoming a PGA TOUR venue, the scoring average has been just 0.83 strokes under par despite multiple winning scores reaching 20 under or lower. The course rewards aggressive play, but mistakes are often costly.

TPC Twin Cities places a premium on positioning off the tee. With water threatening tee shots on numerous holes and penalty areas waiting for even slightly offline drives, players must balance aggression with restraint. Those who find the fairway are rewarded with ideal angles to attack tucked pins, while a single loose swing can quickly lead to bogey or worse. Adam Long, who owns three top 25 finishes at TPC Twin Cities, described the challenge well. “There’s a lot of intimidating shots out there. There’s room to miss, but there’s a lot of water out there. It’s kind of in your face, you can’t avoid it. You just have to kind of step up and hit a golf shot a lot of times out there. So it provides a lot of birdies, but it’s also pretty visually intimidating.”

That risk-reward formula separates TPC Twin Cities from most other low-scoring venues. It consistently ranks among the TOUR leaders in penalty strokes and records more balls hit into the water than any other course on the schedule. The open property also leaves the course exposed to the wind, adding another layer of difficulty when conditions firm up. If the weather remains calm, however, players should once again have plenty of birdie opportunities and a winning score in the high teens or lower 20s. Ultimately, success comes down to keeping the ball dry off the tee, capitalizing with precise ball striking, and converting enough chances on receptive bentgrass greens.

More Reading

• Noonan’s picks for the week

• Our consensus rankings for the 3M

• A look at the weather for the week

• Get into the stats with us for just $10!

• Be sure to enter our Splash Contest! $10 to enter, $1350 in prizes

Model

What matters this week? Scoring a shit-ton. It’s a birdiefest, especially if we end up with soft conditions for a couple of days and then possible rain on Sunday. Most of my stats for the week are ball-striking, with a bunch of Approach proximity and scoring opps (inside 15 feet) from a couple of ranges as well as Good Drive % and a smidge of ARG.

Scheffler is tops due to me also baking in some current form, but the rest of the names are a bit all over the place. With a big drop-off from Scottie to everyone else, it leaves things open. I look at the other expert models a bit more this week as well as peeking at what I had put together last year before firing on some names.

Betting

Throwing caution to the wind and going with a strategy from a commenter on the YouTube chat this week. I will bet the guys I like based on the modeling and then just bet Scottie’s round scores under each damn day. Perhaps he can win those without going TOO low, and we get the best of both worlds.

Jackson Suber +6681
Ben Kohles + 6681
Emiliano Grillo +8500
Zac Blair +15000

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How to Watch

Television

• Thursday, July 23: 4 pm - 7 pm (Golf Channel)

• Friday, July 24: 4 pm - 7 pm (Golf Channel)

• Saturday, July 25: 1 pm - 3 pm (Golf Channel), 3 pm - 6 pm (CBS)

• Sunday, July 26: 1 pm - 3 pm (Golf Channel), 3 pm - 6 pm (CBS)

Streaming

• Thursday, July 23: 7:45 am - 7 pm (ESPN+)

• Friday, July 24: 7:45 am - 7 pm (ESPN+)

• Saturday, July 25: 8 am - 6 pm (ESPN+), 3 pm - 6 pm (Paramount+)

• Sunday, July 26: 8 am - 6 pm (ESPN+), 3 pm - 6 pm (Paramount+)

Featured-group, marquee-group, and featured-hole coverage streams all four rounds on PGA Tour Live (ESPN+), with early coverage starting around 7:45 am Thursday and Friday and 8 am on the weekend. Paramount+ simulcasts the CBS weekend windows.

All times ET.

Weather

Folks are wearing sweatshirts and hoodies this morning! Unprecedented temps (for now). It’ll be warm this afternoon, but usually it’s hot as hell (give it two days).

A bit of a breezy Friday afternoon maybe, but we don’t usually get a wave advantage here. These are the past 4 years AM/PM splits for scoring.

News and Notes

Solid trivia from last week (that I did NOT get without cheating)

Probably on your radar already, but the agreement between the Asian Tour, the PGA, and the DPWT puts yet another doubt in the likelihood that LIV exists for much longer.

I do like some good branding (they also have a course map made completely out of Scotch-Brite pads)

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and feel that Minnesota Nice.

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