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Royal Troon

Half the reason we love majors: it’s a fun puzzle to sort out how things will play here and what stats/skills matter most. So, stick your flag in the ground, bet your guys, enjoy the week.

I think we all know a few things for damn sure:

1. The bunkers are numerous and gnarly; you can lose a whole stroke in them

2. The rough is more penal than in past versions due to the weather

3. The fairway landing areas are either narrow or artificially narrow due to some of the slopes that can lead a running tee ball into trouble (so far, we have three BIG driving accuracy deals)

4. The greens are smallish and hard to hold at times but will be slow as hell once you’re putting.

5. Everything you learn about how you want to play a hole via practice rounds may change come Thursday based on the winds. Rahm likened it to “survival” in his quotes today.

I’ve built a couple of models and gone to the well on form, driving accuracy, approach play and more form. Ended up with a few outright bets so far for the week. Sending an additional newsletter tomorrow with matchups, placements, props and anything else. It’s the last major and I had a few bets on Vance to be the VP pick, so we’ve got some money to burn.

OUTRIGHTS
Morikawa +1800
Tom Kim +4500
Aaron Rai +7000
Cam Young +7500
Alex Noren +11000
ZalatorisBomb +25000

A few more chunks of info to ingest from watching the practice rounds, taking in the press conferences, and in Brad’s case, walking the course:

From Ron’s Course Preview:

With an increase of 195 yards from Troon’s most recent Open in 2016, the par-71 layout is set to measure at close to 7,400 yards this week from its farthest tees. Though it looks like a mostly benign links course, those who have regularly played it have stated that it can take a lifetime to learn its infinite complexities. Royal Troon favors no specific style of play, and as the great golf commentator Iona Stephen remarked, “Success here isn’t always about what you can do but often about what you mustn’t do.”

Being right next to the beach and the Firth of Clyde, Royal Troon has sandy terrain with low-lying dunes. When the wind whips off the ocean there is nowhere to take cover. Shaped shots and the ability to manipulate ball flight are necessary to play well. Along with the wind, the course demands shotmaking to navigate the numerous bunkers, native bushes, and sandhills.

Rain and gusty winds are predicted for Thursday’s opening round with the potential for gusty conditions heading into the weekend. Those who most successfully navigate the varying elements on the Ayrshire coast will find their way towards the top of the leaderboard come Sunday evening.

“We want a traditional links feel,” said Billy McLachlan, course manager at Royal Troon Golf Club. “Firm, fast and bouncy. That’s what we’re trying to target for at The Open, and at any time. We’re doing everything we can to get a linksy feel and if the weather goes with us, we will hopefully achieve it.”

Due to a warmer and wetter last couple of months, the rough will play much thicker than it did in 2016 and will create that much more of a premium on fairway accuracy off the tee. Along with the wild rough and 101 total bunkers, there is plenty of high gorse, hillocks, and other mounds with which to contend after hitting wayward shots. Whether off the tee or on approach, the bunker placement is incredibly strategic and will leave golfers pondering and debating club selection on almost every hole.

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Barracuda Championship

Put together a short preview for the alt event up in Cali, including part of my model for the week (it’s in the article and the article is free).

I will likely have a few more bets, but so far just looking at:

J.J. Spaun: +4500

Weather

Wildly important this week. Updates closer to tee times in tomorrow’s editions but for now we are looking at some rain early and the winds defending the course for at least the first couple of days with gusts up into the 25+ range.

Wanna build a few models for the tourneys this week? How about $5 per tournament? Grab a monthly subscription to the Rabbit Hole for $29.99 and get access that takes you through all of these:

Bonus newsletter tomorrow, full of bets. See ya then.

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