Under the current format, this is my favorite stop on the three-week playoff march, simply because we mix it up. It’s been five years of Southwind/East Lake sandwiching this week, and maybe moving the event around makes it a bit harder to handicap; it certainly makes it more fun to watch. Hell, we’re going to Liberty National next year.

While I hate the small field events during the season, I’m more tolerant of it here (since there’s a logical reason) and hope we get similar coverage to last week where they made up for the smaller amount of golfers by just showing constant golf shots, even by guys well out of contention.

They’ll push the drama of the cutline again, but for the most part, it’s not a ton of jockying around; only one golfer played himself into the BMW by virtue of his performance at Southwind (Sungjae), and I wouldn’t expect that much more advancement drama this week. Still, banger of a course that we haven’t seen for a while, but will get to see again in a few years as a Presidents Cup venue:

Bellerive

Bellerive will play as a 7,448-yard par 70 for the 2026 BMW Championship, making it one of the longest courses on the PGA TOUR. The layout has only two par 5s, both measuring more than 600 yards, while six par 4s are at least 460 yards and three can stretch beyond 500 depending on the tee setup. The four par 3s provide a good change of pace at roughly 170, 187, 215 and 237 yards.

The closing stretch from the 15th through 18th is particularly demanding: the 15th is a 495-yard par 4, followed by the 237-yard 16th, the 624-yard 17th and a 462-yard finishing hole. The 17th is the primary scoring opportunity of the group, but the creek and cross bunkering can turn an aggressive play into a difficult recovery. The 18th then demands another strong drive before a long approach to a green where the wrong side of the putting surface can make par considerably more difficult.

Bellerive is relatively generous off the tee, with fairways averaging around 34 yards wide, and there are no blind shots or particularly complicated strategic options. The basic formula is straightforward: drive it far enough to give yourself manageable approach distances, find the fairway, and then hit the correct portion of some very large greens.

That does not mean the course is easy off the tee. Rees Jones moved many of the fairway bunkers farther from the tees specifically to keep them relevant to modern players, generally positioning them in the 280-to-320-yard range. The better drivers will be able to carry some of that trouble, which makes Bellerive a course where distance is more valuable than raw driving accuracy, provided the player can keep the ball in play. In 2018, bombers and elite long-iron players littered the top of the leaderboard with the likes of  Koepka, Woods, Adam Scott, Jon Rahm, Stewart Cink, Gary Woodland, Justin Thomas and Thomas Pieters all finishing inside the top 10.

The fairways are Zoysia, which typically produces excellent lies, while the 3.5-inch fescue rough is a different proposition altogether. In 2018, players made GIR only 42% of the time from the rough compared with 79% from the fairway. That is a massive difference and helps explain why the ideal combination here is power plus enough control to consistently find the short grass.

Model

Sometimes I hate making a model just based on the predictive stats, especially when we get into a smaller field. It’s, for the most part, going to mirror the odds board if you lean too hard into it.

So, this week, I left out most high-level stuff and just picked out the specifics that I think can give you a leg up in St. Louis.

• Driving Distance

• Scoring opportunities from long irons (175+)

• Proximity on medium-long irons (150-200)

• A smidge of Bentgrass putting

A sign you’ve done it right is not just automatically having Scheffler #1 (as he should be, by some distance, in most “normal” models.

Check the whole thing out on the site, as well as other expert models

Also: this week’s consensus rankings

Betting

Still going to avoid the short numbers atop the board (although Rory’s a bit intriguing), and go with some names that fit the course well and obviously have the chops to win.

Wyndham Clark +4254
Collin Morikawa +4254
Michael Brennan +7050

Ryan also made some bets this week, worth checking out:

How to Watch

Television

• Thursday, August 20: 10 am - 12 pm (ESPN), 3 pm - 7 pm (Golf Channel)

• Friday, August 21: 10 am - 12 pm (ESPN), 3 pm - 7 pm (Golf Channel)

• Saturday, August 22: 1 pm - 3 pm (Golf Channel), 3 pm - 6 pm (CBS)

• Sunday, August 23: 12 pm - 2 pm (Golf Channel), 2 pm - 6 pm (CBS)

Streaming

• Thursday, August 20: 10 am - 7 pm (ESPN+)

• Friday, August 21: 10 am - 7 pm (ESPN+)

• Saturday, August 22: 9:15 am - 6 pm (ESPN+), 3 pm - 6 pm (Paramount+)

• Sunday, August 23: 9:15 am - 6 pm (ESPN+), 2 pm - 6 pm (Paramount+)

Main-feed, marquee-group, featured-group, and featured-hole coverage streams all four rounds on PGA Tour Live (ESPN+), and ESPN+ also simulcasts the ESPN windows Thursday and Friday. On the weekend, ESPN+ is the only place to watch until Golf Channel comes on at 1 pm Saturday and 12 pm Sunday.

CBS carries the weekend in place of NBC, so the weekend simulcast lives on Paramount+ and Peacock carries nothing this week.

All times ET.

Weather

Some rain Wednesday into Thursday may have the course playing pretty soft to start the week. Warm all week (but not “Memphis warm”) and not a lot of wind to speak of. Smaller field diminishes the existence of waves at all, but the conditions wouldn’t really give us an advantage even with a full field.

News and Notes

Yeah, we get it, he’s good.

I know I said this was overblown, but it’s still fun to know who CAN make the jump:

This guy solved golf, but is also probably insane

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and we’ll see you next week for the finale.

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