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Well. It’s that time of year.

We’re into the slog of the “offseason”, but for the hardos who bet this all year round, there’s plenty to like about the swing season. (I DID bet some outrights for this one!)

Picking the winners out of the lower-end fields like definitely gets tricky but it’s a great time to watch some guys you maybe haven’t seen a ton of and get ahead of the curve for the beginning of the real season in Hawaii come December.

Either way, we’ll continue to cover ALL of these fall events, building some models and jamming in a few outright bets.

A snippet from Ron’s course preview to get started:

Silverado Resort (North Course)

Located in the heart of California’s Napa Valley wine country, Silverado is a classical, tree-lined resort-style course with a setup that is quite scoreable. The birdie-to-bogey ratio of 1.44 is one the highest on Tour. And over the past five events here, the course ranks as the 18th easiest annual course playing an average of 0.97 strokes under par.

Although there is some rolling terrain and a couple of holes with elevation changes, it is predominately a flat course. With only two holes with water hazards in play (7th fewest) and only 53 bunkers (7th fewest) on the course, there aren’t many ways for golfers to score a bogey or worse. The narrow tree-lined fairways and severe undulations on several of the greens are the only defense Silverado can mount.

The shortness of the course also contributes to its ease. Measuring in at under 7,200 from the tips, the par-72 course ranks as the 8th shortest annual course on Tour. Looking at the winners’ circle, both bombers and shorter hitters have seen success here. Longer hitters like Cameron Champ and Stewart Cink have raised the trophy while plodders like Chez Reavie and Emiliano Grillo have also played well.

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Betting

We went over the key stats on the show yesterday and despite the fact that shorter hitters can win this thing, we ended up leaning on Driving Distance, Approach from 100-150 yards out, SCORING, especially on the par 5s and even a little bit of putting.

Not a ton of craziness at the top, but as we get into fields like this, you will start to see some names on that first page that normally are a few swipes of the trackball down the list.

Build your own models on-site if you want! Get a full year for just $10 right now.

Four man card this week, two off the top of the deck and a couple of bombs.

McNealy +2200
Spaun +3358
Thorbjornsen +11865
Suh +14550

Noonan put me on Thorbjornsen on the betting show yesterday. If you want a little more on this tourney, we knocked out a solid 45 on the course, the key stats, the kind of golfers we were looking for. We even went through all the reasoning for the model we built above.

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Weather

It’s Napa, so things should be pretty damn nice out, but it will be a little chilly early in the mornings still as we head into fall. No real winds to speak of after today. Tournament will be fairly unaffected by weather.

The greens DO get tougher in the afternoons, so maybe a look for showdown, but as far as a wave advantage goes: Thursday and Friday are damn near identical conditions, so it’ll be hard to discern a wave that has the upper hand.

If the Procore isn’t enough for you, can I interest you in the Cardigan Classic? A real thing that’s actually happening.

I will have a preview up on the site tomorrow morning for the LIV Chicago event, but just a note that the schedule for 2025 is starting to drop.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and welcome to the slow season.

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