Quail Hollow is back after another year off to host a different event, and it brought miserable weather with it. Thursday morning is a mess, Saturday is gusty, and Sunday looks genuinely ugly for anyone stuck in the late wave.

Even without Scottie, this is a very fun top-of-the-board. Rory’s obviously crushed at this course over the years, but Fitzy and Cam have been playing world-class golf of late. I still don’t love the small-field, no-cut thing, but this is shaping up to be a good one anyway.

The model has a clear opinion this week. Here is where things landed.

Quail Hollow

Measuring 7,583 yards, Quail Hollow Club is a demanding par-71 that places a premium on both power and precision. Much like Torrey Pines and Bay Hill, it combines sheer length with consistently difficult scoring conditions. It ranks as the third-longest course on the PGA TOUR schedule and the seventh-toughest in terms of scoring, while also featuring the sixth-longest combined yardage across its par 4s and par 5s.

Scoring opportunities are limited. The three par 5s and a pair of short, semi-driveable par 4s under 350 yards represent the only true scoring chances. Contenders will need to capitalize on those five holes and then grind their way through the remaining 13, all of which historically play over par.

Quail Hollow demands precision as much as power. The layout is framed by tree-lined fairways and rolling terrain, with strategically placed water hazards and firm, undulating greens that place a premium on approach play. A variety of doglegs in multiple directions forces players to shape shots off the tee, while the bunker count is relatively low at just 61. Even so, they are positioned with intent—guarding key landing areas and sitting directly in the line of approach into many greens.

The SubAir system beneath the putting surfaces minimizes the impact of rain, allowing conditions to progressively firm up as the week unfolds. By Sunday, holding the greens becomes a significant challenge. That dynamic gives an edge to longer hitters, as added distance off the tee allows for higher-lofted approaches that can land softer on firm, fast surfaces.

Shotmaking is essential. Players must work the ball to match the course’s frequent bends while navigating overhanging trees and thick Bermuda rough. As Keith Wood noted, “If we have those firm conditions and you just hit it long without shaping it, you’re probably going to end up in the rough because the ball is going to bounce. We can put a real premium on hitting fairways, hitting greens and making putts.”

Don’t Forget about Myrtle

We didn’t! Only in its third year and treated as a stepping stone event for the winners, so it’s a bit tough to handicap, especially with a random drop-in by a multiple major winner this week. Still, it’s worth taking a few minutes to familiarize yourself with the course.

Model

My model for the week is built around what I think we can use to be predictive at a course that we did get to see last year, just not for this particular event.

• SG: Around the Green

• Drives 320+ % (the distance signal that mattered at Quail Hollow)

• SG: Off the Tee

• GIR %

• SG: Total (last 12 months, used as anchor)

Members, be sure to check out models from Pat Mayo, Ron Klos, Ryan Noonan, and our consensus rankings for the week. Also, there are plenty of looks at which stats we’re using for Myrtle Beach!

Betting

Another win with Cam Young. Been on him both times this year, and I’ll be damned if he’s not a decent fit here as well. While I tried my hardest to slay the recency bias and just leave well enough alone as he preps for a major, Noonan convinced me (easily) on the betting preview stream to just keep riding the fastest horse at the racetrack.

Outrights

Cam Young +950
Min Woo Lee +3850
Gotterup +4950
Hojgaard +5000

Bonus Myrtle Beach Picks!

Eric Cole +5000
Seamus Power +7500
Beau Hossler +8000

How to Watch the Truist

Television

• Thursday: 2-6 p.m., Golf Channel

• Friday: 2-6 p.m., Golf Channel

• Saturday: 1-3 p.m., Golf Channel; 3-6 p.m., CBS

• Sunday: 1-3 p.m., Golf Channel; 3-6 p.m., CBS

Streaming

• Thursday: 7:30 a.m.-6 p.m. on ESPN+

• Friday: 7:30 a.m.-6 p.m. on ESPN+

• Saturday: 7:30 a.m.-6 p.m. on ESPN+

• Sunday: 7:30 a.m.-6 p.m. on ESPN+

Weather

Kinda bad! Rain is projected right off the bat, and some heavier winds are projected for a few days this week. Another weekend where Sunday may call for threesomes and earlier tee times. It will be interesting to see how receptive the course is early in the week after the rains.

News and Notes

I love DJ, but it’s been tough the past few years. Not sure if this is the best use of an invite.

Most golfers would KILL for this “slump.”

Meanwhile, on the ladies’ tour, Nelly is once again redlining.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and don’t forget that you can parlay outrights at the two events if you want to retire early.

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