Same place as last year, which kinda stinks on one hand. I like to see new courses make their way into the rotation, especially for national opens. On the other hand, it does make sorting out the course a bit easier, since we at least have some data on the joint.

Plenty to go over to prep, and if you’re not aware, we do nearly two hours of FREE content each week, going over the key stats, the course features, the betting market, and even some DFS and One and Done. Check out the YouTube channel; we’d sure love to have you join us live on Mondays and Tuesdays if you can, as answering user questions is one of our favorite things to do.

Speaking of free content, it’s never a bad idea to take a peek at Ron’s course preview, espeically on a week like this:

TPC Toronto – Osprey Valley

The North Course will play as a par 70 measuring 7,389 yards. Among the courses that host annual PGA Tour events, it would rank as the third-longest par 70, a testament to the extensive renovation led by Ian Andrew. One of the primary objectives of the redesign was to increase the course’s overall length, stretching it from its original 7,100 yards to better challenge today’s elite players.

While the scorecard features only two par 5s, both are reachable in two shots for much of the field and represent key scoring opportunities. The remaining 16 holes include a demanding collection of long par 4s, with six measuring at least 480 yards and five stretching beyond 500 yards. Depending on setup, players may also encounter two drivable par 4s at the 6th and 12th holes, creating additional risk-reward decisions. The closing 18th, a 581-yard par 5, serves as a fitting finale. Enhanced during the renovation with a new tee box and a short grass runoff area fronting the green, it offers eagle opportunities as well as the potential for costly mistakes, ensuring plenty of drama down the stretch.

Related to the abundance of long par-4s, Ian Andrew explains, “Reducing par was something I went in with the intention of doing. I do believe we’re better off closer to 70 than we are to 72. When identifying good players, you want them to hit some mid or long clubs into the greens and take on some risk to give themselves birdie chances. Part of that was making the tee-to-green game matter. The only way to do that was to stretch some of the par fours and convert some of the par fives.”

Said Canadian golfer, Taylor Pendrith, who has played the North Course many times, “The fairways are pretty generous and some of the greens are big, so if it’s soft and no wind, there are some scores to be had out there.” This was definitely the case last year with the average round playing at -1.25, making it the 17th easiest course on TOUR………

Key Stats Model

Key Stats this week are tough due to the small sample size of real golf we’ve seen here, but there is no denying the wedges/long iron splits of what’s asked from the golfers on second shots. I did factor in off the tee play, but filtered it for courses where it was “driver-heavy” as this week should be. With the GIR% looking to again be high, I closed the weekly model out with some scoring metrics: Birdie or Better Rate and putting on Bent/Poa greens, as we’ll need some guys who can push -20 this week.

You can see the entire model on the site.

Betting

So damn close last week to a banger with Gerard 110/1. I’ve had pretty favorable luck over the past few years in playoffs, so I’m not sure I’m allowed to complain, but still. Nice to see the process found me someone in the mix and hoping for at minimum, another Sunday sweat north of the border.

Outrights for the week are mostly based on price when I start to whittle down the golfers in good enough form with the proper course fit.

RBC Canadian Outrights

Sam Burns +1600
Kristoffer Reiten +2652
Alex Fitzpatrick +4674
Sudarshan Yellamaraju +8000
Zach Bauchou +9550

How to Watch

Television

• Thursday: 3 pm - 6 pm (Golf Channel)

• Friday: 3 pm - 6 pm (Golf Channel)

• Saturday: 1 pm - 3 pm (Golf Channel), 3 pm - 6 pm (CBS)

• Sunday: 1 pm - 3 pm (Golf Channel), 3 pm - 6 pm (CBS)

Streaming

• Thursday: 7 am - 6 pm (ESPN+)

• Friday: 7 am - 6 pm (ESPN+)

• Saturday: 7:45 am - 6 pm (ESPN+)

• Sunday: 7:45 am - 6 pm (ESPN+)

Weather

Kinda windy the whole time it appears. Not sure there’s much of a wave advantage considering the consistent top speeds and low likelihood of precipitation.

News and Notes

I do enjoy the drama surrounding golf’s longest day, but I sort of wanted to bet him this week and now think that might be a bad idea considering how much golf he’s just played.

Once a year, we cheer for the course. I’ll be in full sadist mode come Monday.

RIP Rocket Mortgage, I’ll always remember my winning Rickie ticket (as mentioned earlier, I’ve traditionally had great luck in playoffs)

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and enjoy our neighbor to the north.

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