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Another week, another signature event. This time with a cut at least.

It’s been almost two years since we’ve seen Riv due to last year’s wildfires, and I’m pumped to be back. We all have joked a bit about Scottie’s slow starts over the past two weeks, but with the soft, wet conditions and the cut, no one can afford to have a bad round one. Scoring should be lower than normal, at least to start the week.

Riviera Country Club

Located just a few miles from the Pacific coastline, Riviera Country Club is a Par 71 that stretches to 7,383 yards and consistently ranks as one of the most demanding non-major venues on the PGA Tour. It features bottlenecked, tree-lined, undulating fairways with fast Poa annua green complexes that average roughly 7,500 square feet. While it is a classical, old-school design, it still packs plenty of bite, averaging +0.17 strokes over par per round since 2019, which ranks it as the 13th toughest course in the annual rotation.

Very few statistical categories at Riviera play easier than the Tour average. With the second-lowest Driving Accuracy/GIR percentage combination, it tests every part of a player’s game. One of the most striking contradictions is that Riviera has the second-largest greens on Tour, yet also produces the lowest overall GIR rate at just 56.4%. The contouring, run-offs, false fronts, and firm Poa surfaces make simply holding greens a challenge.

Riviera also strongly rewards experience. It ranks third on Tour in course-history predictiveness, and 17 of the last 19 winners had already competed in at least four prior Genesis Invitationals before winning.

Strategically, Riviera forces constant decision-making. Nearly every hole presents a risk-reward choice between aggression and restraint. Architect George C. Thomas Jr. was a master of “angular” golf, and his influence is evident throughout the layout. On many holes, the optimal angle into the green comes from the most dangerous tee shot. Thomas also increased the number of trees near the greens on the back nine, further complicating approach play down the closing stretch and emphasizing precision, positioning, and patience.

While Riviera features no traditional water hazards, its 58 bunkers are among the deepest and most penal on TOUR. The absence of water and forced carries is a key reason the course’s penalty rate is nearly zero, yet Riviera still defends itself as well as any venue on the schedule. It does so without gimmicks, relying instead on brilliant hole design, narrow fairways, strategically placed bunkers, a barranca that comes into play on seven holes, and demanding pin locations on the fast Poa greens.

Barrancas are deep, natural gullies that are extremely difficult to escape once entered, and Rivers runs throughout the property, creating risk on both tee shots and approaches. This constant visual and strategic pressure forces players to shape shots and control trajectory rather than simply chase distance.

Wind is also a critical variable. When conditions pick up, gusts can swirl unpredictably through the canyon corridors, amplifying the challenge and causing Riviera to play significantly more difficult, as we have seen in multiple past editions.

Riviera is one of the few courses on the PGA Tour that features Kikuyu fairways and rough, a grass type that adds a unique layer of difficulty and unpredictability. Although the rough is only about two inches thick, Kikuyu lies can be extremely challenging. When the ball settles down into the dense, spongy strands, the grass can wrap around the clubhead and severely restrict contact, often forcing players to simply hack the ball back into play. From these lies, controlling distance and spin is nearly impossible, and reaching the green becomes unlikely.

At the same time, balls that sit cleanly on top of Kikuyu in the fairway can produce so-called “flyer lies.” Because the grass reduces friction between the ball and clubface, approach shots can come out hotter than expected, making distance control highly volatile. Kikuyu also has a sticky quality that can stop rolling balls abruptly, creating inconsistent bounces and lies throughout the round. As a result, players often describe the surface as unpredictable and one that requires significant experience to manage.

The greens at Riviera are Poa annua, and they are intentionally maintained to be firm and fast, typically measuring around 12.5 on the Stimpmeter. Combined with the challenges presented by Kikuyu, this contrast between unpredictable lies and fast, responsive putting surfaces places a premium on precision, trajectory control, and adaptability.

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Model

A little more in-depth this week as I tried to meld course fit with form and even a bit of course history

• Par 5 average AND BoB rate

• Approach and GIR% as well as overall proximity from 150-200 yards out (half the shots should come from this range)

• Course History here at Riv

• Scrambling from the tall grass

• Poa Putting

• Driving distance

A look at my top eight:

Check the whole thing out here as well as the other expert models from Pat Mayo, Ryan Noonan, Ron Klos, and more.

Betting

The only thing that’s worked for me so far this year has been “live betting Scottie to top 10 after he poops his pants Thursday.”

Looking to change my luck (or just do that again, God willing) with some guys I love at this course.

Hideki is in peak form right now, and either wins this damn thing again or has played too much golf over the past month and has a horrible week. Nothing in between feels realistic to my broken brain.

Henley is another guy who fits this course to a tee with no real weaknesses right now. He’s a high-floor guy who’ll need to make a few extra putts to compete with this elite field, but he’s someone who is winning a tournament this year.

Knapp is a bit of a flier since he lacks some of the experience usually required to get a dub here. But he went to UCLA and is likely very familiar with the agronomy and design anyway. He can overpower this place, which should be playing long due to all the early-week rain.

OUTRIGHTS

Hideki Matsuyama +2500
Russell Henley +4000
Jake Knapp +4500

and a bet on Patrick Rodgers top 20 +300 (dead heat) as a guy who’s constantly high in the models this week.

A look at some more bets from my guy Ryan Noonan:

How to Watch

Television:

Thursday: 4-8 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)

Friday: 4-8 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)

Saturday: 1-3 p.m. ET (Golf Channel); 3-7 p.m. ET (CBS)

Sunday: 1-3 p.m. ET (Golf Channel); 3-6:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

Streaming:

Thursday: ESPN+ 10:15 a.m.-8 p.m. ET

Friday: ESPN+10:15 a.m.-8 p.m. ET

Saturday: ESPN+ 10:15-7 p.m. ET

Sunday: ESPN+ 9:45 a.m.-6:30 p.m. ET

Weather

It’s been fairly wet early this week, with reports of around ¾ of an inch of rain coming down overnight into Wednesday on top of it. Some scattered storms will linger into the early part of the tournament, with the remainder of the week looking pretty nondescript.

Weather’s never easy to guess at, and with the smaller field the tee times are less spread out but the afternoon looks windier for round one, leaning to a slight AM/PM advantage.

News and Notes

• not gonna lie, this one got me a bit excited

• Sepp isn’t someone I’ve focused in on this week, but he’s been great in signature events and is coming in with some form

• It appears they took the time to fix a glitch in the game

• Check out Pat’s picks for the week ahead

• As well as my thoughts on O&D

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and welcome back to LA

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