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Scottish, ISCO, Andalucía
Looks at all three stops this week with an outright for each
This is a slightly different format since this is a week when I legitimately will focus on three tournaments with similar interest levels.
Sure, the Scottish is the high-end field and the warm-up to links golf for next week’s major, but the young players headlining the odds board in Kentucky and the fact that LIV is playing at a pretty solid golf course this week have me realizing that I may not cross much off my honey-do list this weekend.
So, a quick look at each course, what I think matters, and what I like outright for the week.
Starting with the…
Scottish Open
It was pointed out by many, but similar to other “Opens,” I’d love to see this rotate. I checked, and there is not a shortage of good courses in Scotland.
That said, I enjoy the Renaissance Club and despite a couple of the top names prepping elsewhere for the Open, this is such a nice way to get properly acclimated to some links golf.
Renaissance Club, via Ron’s Preview Article
Due to potential windy conditions, The Renaissance Club was built with extreme versatility in tee placements and can play as short as 5,400 yards out to its Scottish Open length of 7,237 yards. While it was a par-71 course in its first four editions, this is the second year it will be a par-70 course with a unique mixture of ten par-4s, five par-3s, and three par-5s. Overall, it is a hybrid of parkland, heathland, and links-style courses. The layout was carved through a forest of evergreens and has an undulating sand-based terrain that includes ancient rock walls, ocean cliffs, and forested woodlands.
In regards to agronomy, the Renaissance Club was seeded with the most common grass choice in Scotland – red fescue. Fairways, rough and greens are all 100% fescue. The rough is much thicker here compared to the wispiness of other links-style courses in Great Britain. As is typical for most coastal courses, greens run very slow at around 10 on the stimpmeter. The greens here are cut at a minimum of 5 mm high. Most PGA Tour greens are typically cut to around 2.5 mm. With the greens playing so slow, many of the PGA Tour players who are used to faster speeds will have to adjust.
Overall, the course has a great blend of long and short par-4s and 5s. Three of the four par-5s play over 575 yards and, dependent on the wind and firmness of the fairways, can each be reached in two shots. Four of the five par-4s are over 475 yards while three of the par-3s play over 200 yards. Distance off the tee and accuracy with longer irons will be an advantage.
I think the big story is the weather this week. We’ve seen the massive differences in the winning scores here from year to year, and if there are some light rains to soften things and the winds stay light (gusts 15 or less is what it’s looking like), the calculus for what matters is slightly different, and the variance ramps up a bit I’d think.
My Bets: Wyndham Clark +4500, Top 20 +130
Bad form be damned, this is still a guy who went out and had back-to-back runner-ups at the API and PLAYERS after winning at Pebble Beach just weeks earlier. If the winds are going to be mild, his driver and the short game should be finding him in a position to score plenty often enough to compete.
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ISCO Championship
Formerly the Barbasol, and this is a fun field. An amateur who many may not know is your favorite, there are a bunch of DP World Tour players, and we’ve got guys on the comeback trail, like Daniel Berger.
It's not only a birdie fest stop but also something similar to what we saw in Detroit and the Quad Cities: a birdie fest stop where there’s been plenty of rain to soften things up. Expecting to see some filthy low scores sprinkled in and a winner in the low to mid-20s under par this week.
The scoring average here over the years has been almost a full two strokes below par for the entire field, and it took -4 to get through the cutline in 2023. There is some water danger here but the main defense is just trying to keep up with the field and forcing aggressive play. The fairways are wide, the greens are nice sized and the weather will be hot and humid.
Driving accuracy here is low, and yardage is up relative to other events. Guys are bombing and gaining strokes on the greens. Scoring metrics, driving distance, approach proximity, and GIR% are probably a good start for finding your guys in Kentucky. Jim Herman won here five years ago. Don’t break your brain trying to solve this puzzle.
My Bets: Mac Meissner +3300, Top 20, +130
A little further down the board, but how about a guy with SEVEN top 30 finishes this season, including last week's T20, where he shot 66-66 over the weekend? The approach game continues to improve; he’s someone I’ll likely be betting on during the swing season as well.
LIV Andalucía
I'm enjoying this since we’ve seen it in the past, and I don’t have to guess how the course will look from YouTube videos and old GolfPass reviews (I still looked at the reviews, and everyone seemed pretty pumped to get to play here).
Course: Real Club Valderrama. Andalucía, Spain
Length: Par 71, 6990 Yards
Fairways and Rough: Bermuda
Greens: Bentgrass
Defending Champ: Talor Gooch held off Bryson and Brooks with a strong final round, winning by one stroke and a score of -12
When: Shotgun starts at 1:15 pm local (7:15 am ET) Friday-Sunday
Friday's Rd. 1 groupings #LIVGolf Andalucía
— LIV Golf Communications (@LIVGolfComms)
12:18 PM • Jul 10, 2024
The course has not only hosted bigger events like the Ryder Cup (won by Seve and the Euros in a tight one) but also stops on the DP World Tour. LIV golfers Sergio Garcia, Ian Poulter, John Catlin, and Adrian Meronk have all won here in the past.
Designed by the man himself, Robert Trent Jones, in 1974, it’s a classical tree-lined course with fairly narrow fairways and small greens. Quite a few bunkers guard the greens and jut into fairway landing areas. The Par 5 17th creates a very fun risk-reward decision where golfers can test going for it in two over some water.
The green and pond that defends it on #17
Driving accuracy, scrambling, and the ability to hold these small greens will be big. The rough is penal, the runoffs from the greens are sweeping in spots, and there is trouble to be had in the form of some water.
Despite all that, we have seen some low rounds here. Bryson finished second last year at -11 with a second-round score of -8. Going back to look at what happened when he came within one of the course record, it seems that even though it’s a challenging setup, someone who just stripes everything all day off the tee is obviously going to be set up for scoring chances here.
My Bets: Sebastian Munoz +4000, Top 10 +200
Been accurate off the tee, which we need here; played well last year (4th place), and showed some nice form last time out in Nashville (T7). Fading the big guns as they perhaps focus a bit more on prepping for Troon.
Betting (from last week)
did not win, took 7 months, but finally dipped below the negative numbers, and I’m not happy. Back with matchups again next week for the Open, likely a few of them.
As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and acclimate to early morning golf.
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