How hard is it going to be this week? Obviously, they have some control over things with how much they water, roll, mow, etc., but man cannot control the winds, and boy howdy does it look nasty out on Long Island. We’ve all seen the stats on previous U.S. Opens here on the island.

Current odds for the winning score: 277.5 (par is 280), with the over juiced to -160. Current odds for “players finishing under par for the week”: over 1.5 +100 (under -120)

The books aren’t always right, but in case you haven’t already… Prepare for some carnage. A few other bets you could make if you REALLY want to be the guy who cheers for the course this week:

• Higher Round Score, over 87.5 -200

• Cutline: over 147.5 -165 (par is 140)

• Any player to make a 10+ on any hole, +130

Hell, even the round scores are set for a nasty round one. Scottie Scheffler’s first-round score prop is set at 71.5 on a par-70 golf course. The man who is favored to win the whole thing’s median score is expected to be over par tomorrow.

Shinnecock Hills

Shinnecock Hills Golf Club is a par 70 measuring 7,440 yards, a length that places it comfortably within the modern U.S. Open rotation but well below many of the longest venues in professional golf. Distance alone, however, has never been the primary defense. William Flynn’s design derives its challenge from the natural landscape, the prevailing winds, and a series of strategic decisions that players must make throughout every round.

William Flynn’s 1931 redesign remains the foundation of what players will encounter this week. Rather than imposing a layout onto the property, Flynn routed the course across natural ridges, valleys, and exposed terrain, allowing the land itself to shape the design. The result is a course that plays along and between ridges, repeatedly asking players to drive from elevation down into a valley and then approach back up to another elevated green. Elevation changes reach up to 70 feet on certain parts of the property, most noticeably on the back nine.

Flynn believed golf should be a physical and mental examination in equal measure, and the topography at Shinnecock delivers both. Several holes feature partially blind sightlines from either the tee or fairway, while others ask players to challenge corners of doglegs to gain better angles into elevated greens. One of the clearest illustrations of his design philosophy is the 13th hole, a short par-4 where longer hitters instinctively want to cut the dogleg and gain an advantage. At Shinnecock, the opposite is true. The correct play is to the outside of the dogleg, which opens the proper angle into a green that punishes anyone approaching from the wrong side.

The course’s strategic brilliance becomes increasingly apparent the closer players move toward the putting surfaces. While the fairways appear generous, position often matters far more than simply finding short grass. In 2026, fairways will average approximately 48 yards wide, with some stretching beyond 60 yards. That makes them among the widest players will encounter at a U.S. Open in decades. Yet width alone can be deceptive. Certain portions of fairways provide vastly superior angles into specific hole locations, while players who choose the wrong side frequently find approach shots blocked by contours, bunkers, or awkward green orientations.

Scottie Scheffler summarized this characteristic well when he noted, “It’s one of those courses where there’s a ton of space out there, but the areas you have to hit into are quite small.”

That distinction highlights one of the central themes of Shinnecock Hills. The course rewards strategic positioning rather than simply rewarding accuracy. Players who understand how fairway angles interact with green contours gain a significant advantage, while conservative decisions often lead to more difficult approaches and defensive play….

More Reading

• Noonan’s Outright Picks for Shinnecock

• Our Consensus Rankings for the Week

• Key Data Points for this Course

• Pat Mayo’s Cheat Sheet

• Shinnecock Course Data Page

Key Stats Model

Went a bit granular this week, throwing filters on all of my key data points in my course fit model.

• Good Drive % (filtered for HIGH missed fwy penalty)

• SG: Approach (filtered for rounds with difficult to gain SG:APP)

• Scrambling from the Round (under difficult scrambling conditions)

• Putting (Poa only)

• SG: T2G (tough scoring conditions and tough fields)

Scottie still leads the pack, but it shot a couple of the names I already liked up quite a bit (full model/rankings available on site)

Betting

Three guys for now, with some funds saved up for some live bets. I have a shortlist of about 12 dudes that I need to see go hit the ball here tomorrow before I consider them.

Rory McIlroy +1350

Mostly a price play for me. I have Rory and Scottie much closer than the price would indicate, and with the comps to Augusta and links courses, I’m more than happy to take an inflated number on a guy who can make it happen under tough scoring conditions.

Russell Henley +4450

Always a model darling, but the win two weeks back + his high finish at the Masters have me really feeling like he has a legit shot at winning a big-boy event. Checks all the boxes for me in terms of course fit.

Shane Lowry +8500

Long shot, pretty much solely based on the fact that he can play well in terrible conditions. Been making cuts and finishing just outside the top 20 for like three months, just need to see him get near the top via attrition (16 pars per round).

Winning Score

I will be taking some over 277.5 and laying the heavy juice (-160). Hopefully, it doesn’t come down to the 72nd hole like Augusta did.

How to Watch

Television

• Thursday, June 18: 6:30 am - 5 pm (USA), 5 pm - 8 pm (NBCSN)

• Friday, June 19: 6:30 am - 1:30 pm (NBCSN), 1:30 pm - 7:30 pm (NBC)

• Saturday, June 20: 10 am - 12 pm (USA), 12 pm - 8 pm (NBC)

• Sunday, June 21: 9 am - 12 pm (USA), 12 pm - 7 pm (NBC)

Streaming

• Thursday, June 18: 5 pm - 8 pm (Peacock)

• Friday, June 19: 6:30 am - 7:30 pm (Peacock)

• Saturday, June 20: 12 pm - 8 pm (Peacock)

• Sunday, June 21: 12 pm - 7 pm (Peacock)

Featured group coverage streams all four rounds on Peacock, USOpen.com, and the USGA App.

All times ET.

Weather

Windy as hell. Fun tweet I ran across compared the winds this week to what we saw in 2018, and it’s not terribly far off, sooooo… maybe just gird your loins and expect similar conditions.

Most of the DFS community expects an AM-PM advantage, and I guess I can’t argue to hard, but sometimes I wonder what the difference is between “awful conditions” and “slightly worse awful conditions”. May be a good week to get a little contrarian.

Looking at multiple weather sources, I’ve tried to stay a bit conservative with wind speed forecasts, but Windfinder is showing gusts in the 40+ MPH range. If we truly get the worst possible scenario, the whole wave advantage thing may get turned on its head with a stoppage in play as well.

News and Notes

Brooks says the hand is feeling better, but man, it’s only been a few days since he WD from a tournament, saying he “couldn’t grip the club”. I’d struggle to back him here.

Congrats to Justin Ray, and congrats to the Ryder Cup team as well for finally trying to catch up to the Euros in data usage.

Finally, the best read of the week (outside of our betting content):

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and let’s go Shinnecock!

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