I don’t have a ton to say about this one. I hold no strong opinions on it other than that having an event in Vegas should have more fanfare and maybe be stuck between the California swing and the Florida swing in the spring. Alas, it’ll be on my TV Thursday morning either way.

Wide fairways, low rough, big greens, and little in the way of defense: another good week to take some longer shots and hope for the flatstick to heat up. It should play easy, but the winds have and can have something to say about that.

A look at the course from Ron’s preview article:

TPC Summerlin

TPC Summerlin is a par-72, 7,255-yard layout that was carved from a spectacular swath of rugged desert terrain. The course meanders through desert arroyos and canyons and features all sorts of native bushes and cacti. The lush bentgrass greens, numerous bodies of water, and abundance of mesquite and pine trees provide a sharp visual contrast with the raw desert landscape.

TPC Summerlin is a considerably short desert parkland track that plays even less than its measured yardage due to 2,700 feet of elevation and typically firm fairways. Homes line the perimeter of the course and it features gentle elevation changes throughout with a good variety of downhill and uphill holes. The rocky desert areas are used as either forced carries off the tee or as hazards around the green complexes. There are 92 bunkers, which is the seventh most on Tour, along with only four holes with water danger.

Similar to the past two weeks, GIR% is well above Tour average, and this venue also contains some of the widest fairways on Tour at over 36 feet on average. The bermuda rough is only two and a quarter inches and causes little trouble for players on approach with wayward tee shots. The bentgrass greens are the sixth-largest on Tour and rank as one of the easiest putting surfaces. Looking back at the course history over the last five years, it is the sixth-easiest course on Tour at 2.10 strokes under par.

As mentioned above, TPC Summerlin is the definition of a “birdie-fest”, and this is despite the fact there are only three Par 5s to score on. Three years ago, this event set the PGA record for the lowest cut-line in PGA Tour history at 7-under par. In fact, this course is so undemanding that over the past five years, it ranks in the top three easiest courses for Good Drive%, GIR%, and BoB%. It is also the easiest course on Tour for BoB% from the rough and Birdie to Bogey ratio. It contains the lowest-scoring Par 4s on Tour as well as the furthest average Driving Distance.

It is important to note that weather can be a huge factor at TPC Summerlin due to the location of the mountains. Back in 2018, Patrick Cantlay overcame winds gusting over 20 MPH to win at an outlier score of only 9-under. Looking at the forecast for this week, weather conditions appear to be close to perfect.

Each of the par-5s is typically reachable in two shots. Thanks to the course’s elevation, that also includes the 606-yard 13th hole. The par-3s are a good mix of lengths measuring from 168 yards to 239 yards. Six of the 11 par-4s are between 420-450 yards and rank among the easiest group of par-4s on Tour.

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Model

We stuck to the most important things in a scoreable birdie fest for the most part. Noonan and I looked a bit of a hybrid weighting for 2nd shots using both Good Drive % and SG:APP. We also took form, short game, and Birdie or Better % in to account.

Check out the full model or build your own at BetspertsGolf.com

Betting

None of my guys could quite break out of that second tier last week, and all of them sat 5-10 shots off the lead for most of the important parts of the tourney.

As we went over in the betting show, I pulled ou the same model I used for Sanderson here and cross referenced it with what we made on the show along with some other expert models on site.

Ended up with four outrights again:

Thompson +3300

Ben Griffin +4500

Hall +4500

Silverman +11000

Weather

While it looked a bit calmed early in the week the winds are apparently going to show up on Thursday and Friday. Maybe a few fewer drivers on spots where there are some crosswinds and a little bump for the PM/AM wave, I suppose.

News and Notes

Missed this last week and I feel bad, because these robots deserved some shine.

Maybe the event we should be pumped up for in Vegas.

Closing with a little nostalgia. I’m old enough to remember Tiger as a “next big thing” kid.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and pray for some wind.

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