We are BACK!

Not the normal start to a season with Maui cancelled, but still some Hawaiian golf to ease back into the season, and kind of a decent field to go along with it. I won’t wax poetic because, in classic fashion, I am behind schedule this week. There are still NFL games going on, and I have a ton to figure out yet, so let’s rip.

A look at the course, from Ron’s Course Preview article:

Waialae Country Club

Waialae Country Club is a shorter par 70 track measuring 7,044 yards and is the 12th shortest course on Tour. Tucked away to the east of the sprawling city of Honolulu, the course only has a couple of holes bordering the ocean. A majority of the holes are hundreds of yards inland and are somewhat protected from the trade winds by the palm-tree-lined fairways.

Waialae is a tight, flat, technical, coastal track that tends to favor shorter, more accurate hitters who are creative both in their strategy and shot-making skills. While those types have had great success here, bigger hitters have the potential to cut across some of the doglegs and can shorten the course even further. Overall, however, the power game has mostly proven fruitless as bombers who cut corners and end up in the Bermuda rough will have to deal with “fliers” jumping out of the thick grass on approach. And this year’s version of the Sony Open will havethe longest rough in recent memory at 3.5″. Because the big hitters have a minimal advantage, Waialae does a great job of leveling the field.

The routing of the layout is excellent. The course features one of the highest amounts of dogleg holes on Tour. Raynor designed it to not favor one ball-flight type over the other as there is an equal mix of holes that bend in both directions. The variety of tee-to-green routing forces players to think and plot their way around the course. There is, however, more “trouble” areas when missing to the left of the fairway. Individual players’ “Left Tendency” and “Right Tendency”  off the tee were just added to the Rabbit Hole and make for a great resource on a weekly basis. 

Depending on recent precipitation, Waialae tends to play fast and firm. While it does have tight tree-lined corridors, the fairways are the 10th widest on Tour at an average of 36.5 yards across. Nevertheless, because the course typically plays firm and the angles are so tight, hitting fairways is at a premium. Drives landing in the fairway and bouncing into the rough are a regular occurrence. As Charles Howell III said a few years back, “It’s a course where you always have to play your angles and plan your misses.”

Many of Waialae’s 83 bunkers are thoughtfully positioned, demanding both strategy and precision, while water hazards come into play on four holes. By far the course’s greatest defense is the wind, which can dramatically alter scoring conditions. The last truly wind-affected edition came in 2020, when Cameron Smith captured the title at just 11-under par. When the coastal breezes lie down, however, Waialae becomes far more inviting, yielding plenty of birdies and ranking as the 10th-easiest course on the PGA Tour.

The first eight holes are among the toughest opening stretches on Tour, as only the 3rd and 7th holes average under par. Four of those eight holes have a bogey or worse rate of 20% or higher. Once players hit the par-5 9th hole, it becomes smoother sailing as seven of the remaining 10 holes average under par.

As is the case with most par-70 courses, there are two more par-4s and two fewer par-5s on which to score. This puts a premium on par-4 scoring as players do not have a full complement of scoring holes that typically come with par-5s. In fact, 11 of the holes are between the 400-480 yard range.

The two par-5s are the easiest par-5s on Tour with a scoring average of only 4.35 per hole and an enormous Birdie or Better rate of 64%. Each is also relatively short and can be reached in two shots, setting up potential eagle putts. In fact, over the last decade, the field has averaged 0.13 eagles per round which is one of the highest rates on Tour. Sitting at 506 and 551 yards respectively, it can not be emphasized how short and easy the par-5s are for everyone who can keep their ball in the short grass….

READ THE WHOLE THING:

Model/Key Stats

I didn’t want to get overly complicated with it this week, so I didn’t.

• Heavy on Approach play, a true 2nd shot course

• I did include some Bermuda putting, as hot putters can win here

• Driving accuracy matters with the tight-ish landing corridors and the tall rough

• Distance from the edge of the fairway is a bit of an extension of accuracy

Speaking of: we’ve redesigned the home page a bit to have quick links to everyone’s data models for the week, including a “team-built” Key Stats model with a few simple stats that matter for the week. Members, check it out. Non-members, also check it out, using the promocode BSG26 for 25% off any plan.

Betting

Small card for me, fading Henley (at this price), even though I love the guy.

I stuck with some guys that I’ve backed in the past. Hall has tended to make more sense at bomber’s tracks, but fits here as well. Hoey can win if he doesn’t ruin his rounds on the greens, and Denny can win if he can do anything well OFF the greens.

Harry Hall +4500
Rico Hoey +5000
Denny McCarthy +7000

Matchup Bet

Kristoffer Reitan > Sam Stevens -108

Not as well known over here, Reitan is a two-time winner on the DPWT last year and seems to possess the skill set to play well here with some great OTT numbers, above average irons, and a STRONG putter. Stevens is a fine golfer, but outside of a good finish at the RSM, had an unremarkable swing season and has relied on BIG spike weeks in the short game to compete. I’ll take the Norwegian and his ball-striking here in Hawaii.

Weather

The winds are going to come into play this week.

Thursday and Sunday don’t look terrible, but rounds two and three will have some winds to contend with all day long. With Thursday looking like the winds will wait until after lunch to kick up, but Friday appearing to be gusty all day long, I’m giving an advantage to the AM/PM crowd.

News and Notes

As is standard for this time of year: lots of LIV news.

• Obviously, first and foremost: Pat Perez is BACK!

• I think this next one is actually a step in the right direction if the offshoot league wants to live on. Teams centered around a country like this one, and the new Korea team, actually have fans. People enjoy cheering for their countrymen; no one is a fan of a random thing like Cleeks GC.

• Bryson posted like a teenage girl, and in the end, opted to stay with LIV rather than follow Brooksie back to the tour.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and pace yourself. Lotta golf left.

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