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Been pumped for this one for a bit. I love Augusta, but I know what to expect. I wasn’t super jazzed for a Quail Hollow seeing how we play there every damn year. But this week gives us a place we haven’t seen for a good decade, with some improvements and a ton of the top players at the peak of their games.

DraftKings currently has the winning score set at 278.5 with the under juiced to -140, essentially calling it around -2 for the winner, which sounds about right after taking in 1000 videos from the course today. I think the weather will have something to say about the result, but it’s only Tuesday, and who knows what the rain will do at this point.

Some fun facts from the PGA Media Guide:

• You can play in this event! You just need a handicap under 0.4 and to win your way in (over 10,000 entered the qualifiers, good luck)

• You don’t get to keep the trophy. You have to return it after a year and just get a replica for the shelf at home.

• This is the 10th U.S. Open contested at Oakmont, more than any other course (and it’s coming back in 2034!)

Trivia before we get into the meat of this place: Which course has hosted the U.S. Open the 2nd most, pulling hosting duty seven times? (answer at the end)

Ron wrote a damn tome this week on the course, it’s free to read for non-members, so check it out if you haven’t yet. An excerpt as usual:

Oakmont

For over a century, the essential elements that make Oakmont the most challenging and consistently demanding U.S. Open venue have remained unchanged: its famously treacherous greens that slope like tilted basketball courts, coffin-like fairway bunkers that are equivalent to a penalty shot, and club-twisting rough that is five inches deep. Throw in 150 yards of added length for this year’s tournament, and if conditions remain firm, the stage is set for potentially one of the most difficult scoring majors in history. The scoring average at Oakmont from the last two championships here (2007, 2016) is +4.63 per round, the highest of any course this century.

Oakmont presents a challenge that is infinitely interesting and challenging at the same time. What Henry Fownes wanted was a true “man versus course” struggle. The goal has always been the most difficult bunkers, fairways that ran out into the rough, and the fastest and firmest greens. One of the things that makes Oakmont unique, even among other difficult courses, is that most of the holes do not offer a location for a “good miss”.

Said Jeff Hall, Director of Rules and Open Championships for the USGA, “We can make any golf course difficult. That’s not hard to do, but is it difficult for the right reasons? Are we differentiating good golf, great golf, and average golf? And that’s really what our job is as a setup team. If good shots and bad shots are finishing in the same place, we haven’t done our job properly.”

Scott Langley, the USGA’s senior director of player relations, thinks Oakmont remains one of the stiffest tests because it lacks the kind of shot options that other recent U.S. Open courses like Pinehurst No. 2 or Los Angeles Country Club provided. “You have strategic width and can play the angles more,” Langley said. “There are spots here where you do that. But by and large, Oakmont is you hit a good shot or you don’t. And if you don’t, the penalty is pretty uniform.”

You hit a good shot, you get rewarded for it here”, said 2015 U.S. Open winner Jordan Spieth. “And if you don’t, you’re in big trouble. It’s pure golf, no funny business about it.”

2006 U.S. Open winner, Geoff Ogilvy, remarked, “It’s just so relentless, but it’s such a beautiful place. Even though they’re hard, they’re fun shots to hit. Every hole is totally different from every other hole, but every hole feels like Oakmont. The breathers come depending on where the tees and pins are. Anything other than a driver into a narrow fairway and a long iron in feels like a relative breather.”

Oakmont is very democratic in its difficulty. No specific type of player has a distinct advantage. Power hitters will have an edge in getting out of the rough and getting their approach shot closer to the green from fairway bunkers. While shorter, more accurate hitters won’t have to contend with the hazards as frequently, they can make up for a lack of length by using the ground game to run the ball up onto the greens.

The closing stretch of holes 15-18 may very well decide the championship on Sunday afternoon. Yardage was added to each hole except No. 17. On that hole, however, the previous bailout area at the front left of the green has been mostly eliminated. Said Ogilvy, “If you par the last four holes to win the tournament, you’ve earned your U.S. Open.”

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Key Stats

Nothing too fancy this week, a ton of basic stats. Which isn’t to say this will be easy; it’s awfully tough to manage to do all these things well for 72 holes.

• Driving Distance/Driving Accuracy: This has been a bit argument in the space this week, but honestly, they both matter a ton. I think I lean more on distance this week, since everyone is going to miss some fairways at some point. Being accurate is going to help, but being short is going to leave impossible iron shots into the fast greens.  
  Oakmont’s narrow fairways (averaging 28 yards wide) and punishing five-inch rough make hitting fairways critical. Missing fairways often leads to unplayable lies or pitching out, but smart players will just grind out pars and bogeys and move on with their rounds.

• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation (GIR): Oakmont’s greens are a primary defense, requiring precise approach shots to avoid short-siding or missing entirely, which often results in bogeys or worse. Elite iron play is vital to win at most places, but avoiding long, difficult lag putts when you can is going to pay huge dividends on the scorecard. The course’s firm, elevated greens and new pin locations demand spin control and accurate yardage, making GIR a key differentiator, especially with long irons on the extended 7,372-yard layout.

• Scrambling: The thick rough and deep bunkers make recovery shots challenging, but successful scrambling can save pars on Oakmont’s brutal setup. Maybe tough to gauge since this is such a different test than most stops, but this is going right along with the rest of the theme: avoiding the big number by playing smart no matter where you’re playing from.

• 3-Putt Avoidance: Oakmont’s greens, averaging 8,500 square feet and running at 14.5 on the stimpmeter, are among the fastest and most undulating in golf. Avoiding three-putts is crucial due to the greens’ severe slopes and size, where lag putting is a premium skill. Noonan did a nice job talking about this:

• Bogey Avoidance: Oakmont’s relentless difficulty, with a historical scoring average of +4.63 per round, rewards players who minimize bogeys. The course’s design punishes errors harshly. Everyone is saying the same thing here: pars feel like birdies at Oakmont, and avoiding big numbers, especially on the tough closing stretch (holes 15-18), is critical to staying in contention.

Tons of expert models in the Rabbit Hole this week if you want to take a peek at mine or any of the others. I just tossed the current form out for mine (weighting that too heavily will often just give you a list that looks similar to the order of the odds board) and put the above stats in. Maybe that guy in the YouTube chat today was on to something with Vic Perez?

Speaking of the Rabbit Hole: This is the final week to take advantage of the Drafters Promo. New users can get a free 90-day access to everything we have to offer at Betsperts Golf. See the blog for more details ,and hurry up if it’s something you’ve been meaning to do.

Betting

I’m running very cold, but will not let that deter me. I’ll be mixing up the strategy a bit, but still sticking to my guns on value and hoping for the best.

Outrights

Jon Rahm +1404
Corey Conners +6600
Hideki Matsuyama +7500
Harris English +8556

Placements

Harris English top 20 +170

Taylor Pendrith top 30 +160

Emiliano Grillo top 40 +210

Phil Mickelson top 40 +200

Vic Perez top 40 +210

Phil top Lefty +500

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Weather

Thursday and Friday don’t seem too different from each other from a wind standpoint to find much of a wave advantage quite yet, although I wonder if Friday afternoon will be playing tougher due to it having extra time to dry out after some rains earlier in the week.

Some chances of rain this weekend, but it’s still a long way out to be calling that. According to the guy that put this forecast together, “rain/storm chances are starting to trend up”, so things could yet get interesting up in Pennsylvania.

News and Notes

• I agree with the “they wouldn’t finish” answer.

• This feels like the game where you just name old running backs. Which means I love it.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and stay out of the Rough

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Trivia Answer:

Baltusrol Golf Club, Springfield, N.J. (1903, 1915, 1936, 1954, 1967, 1980, 1993). Oakland Hills, Pebble Beach, and Winged Foot have all hosted SIX times.