Hell of a stretch starting here

• Jack’s Place

• Canadian Open

• Shinnecock

• Master’s Tickets Lottery Time

Sure, maybe the Canadian is a weak spot in that roster, but the point stands. Plus, I like a built-in off week for the golfers who are using this week’s always tough setup as prep for the U.S. Open, while (likely) taking next week off to head to New York and get themselves ready for the third major.

Maybe I’m the idiot for believing that Scottie’s semi-swoon continues, but until he closes out a solid four days with another win, I’m willing to go against him at his minuscule prices. (Noonan Disagrees)

Muirfield Village

Muirfield Village Golf Club is a par-72 layout that stretches to 7,569 yards, making it the eighth-longest annual stop on the PGA Tour. Jack Nicklaus‘ classical parkland design features significant elevation changes, wide tree-lined fairways, strategically placed bunkers, firm and fast green complexes, penal rough, and water hazards that come into play on 12 holes. The course has multiple layers of defense, requiring players to execute precise shots from tee to green while avoiding costly mistakes.

With so many ways for the course to challenge players, the margin for error is extremely small. Even minor misses can quickly escalate into bogeys or worse. From 2016 through 2020, Muirfield Village played to an average score of 0.75 strokes over par, but the course has become considerably more difficult following its 2020 renovation. Over the last five years, it has played to an average of 1.29 strokes over par per round, making it the third-toughest non-major venue on the PGA Tour during that span.

The increased difficulty following the 2020 renovation has been widely praised by players, including 2020 Memorial champion Jon Rahm. After his victory, Rahm said, “It’s a test out there. It’s more how golf should be. I’m glad for once we’re not having a week where it becomes a putting contest and see who shoots 20-plus under par. I do think the redesign has made it a better golf course.” The changes reinforced many of the design principles that have always defined Muirfield Village. Because of the penal rough, players who drive the ball accurately have a much better opportunity to attack pins with their approach shots, while those forced to play from the thick grass often find themselves simply trying to survive.

Muirfield Village is a classic example of one of Jack Nicklaus‘ core architectural philosophies. While the fairways are relatively generous by modern standards, each hole becomes progressively more difficult the farther a player moves from the tee box. Nicklaus has long believed that great golf courses should challenge players with their approach shots and around the greens, rewarding elite iron play and short-game skill rather than simply accuracy off the tee. Similar to the way the Golden Bear himself played the game, Muirfield Village favors players who can hit a powerful fade off the tee and launch high approach shots capable of holding the firm bentgrass greens, which typically become faster and more difficult to attack as the tournament progresses into the weekend.

Model

Pretty simple model this week as Muirfield doesn’t mess around. Simple stuff that you need to do at a place with wildly low GIR and fairly penal rough.

• Approach above all

• Driving accuracy (fairways are generous, but you gotta find em)

• Birdie of Better Rate

• Bogey Avoidance

• SG: Putting

The expression is that you “can’t fake a result” here, so I stuck to most of the stats that are predictive, no matter where you stick your tee in the ground.

Not a member? The $5 NoVig deal is still on the table (for now)

Betting

As I said, I’ll dance with Scottie and find some names downboard that can keep up. For the most part, I didn’t see a lot of value in the next tier and honestly opted for a single-man card… with some sprinkles on longshots with upside.

Fitzy is playing as well as he ever has right now and can still be gotten for 25/1 at plenty of shops while guys like Xander and Aberg (great damn golfers, but not winning tournaments right now) are shorter.

The rest of the names are simply model fits with big, fat numbers. Maybe we hit a lotto ticket, but most of my hopes are riding on a 115-pound Englishman.

OUTRIGHTS

Matt Fitzpatrick +2572

Ryan Gerard +11090

Kurt Kitayama +8000

Aaron Rai +10784

Daniel Berger +17500

How to Watch

Television

Thursday: 2 pm - 6 pm (Golf Channel)

Friday: 2 pm - 6 pm (Golf Channel)

Saturday: 12:30 pm - 2:30 pm (Golf Channel), 2:30 pm - 6 pm (CBS)

Sunday: 12:30 pm - 2:30 pm (Golf Channel), 2:30 pm - 6 pm (CBS)

Streaming

Thursday: 7:45 am - 6 pm (ESPN+)

Friday 7:45 am - 6 pm (ESPN+)

Saturday: 9 am- 6 pm (ESPN+)

Sunday: 9 am - 6 pm (ESPN+)

Weather

Nice weather to start with some heavy winds and possible storms starting in on Friday. Not sure the tee times are spread out enough for a strong wave advantage, but for now, the latest tee times on Friday are in for it a bit.

News and Notes

Threepeats are hard (unless your Tiger)

OK State just continues to churn ‘em out

Overlay in our guaranteed tiers contest this week…

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and don’t forget to grab a milkshake.

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