Brand new course, brand new event, and zero course history to lean on! It’s like a major (if we had a major in November where Doug Ghim was the favorite).

The Tour hasn't been to Austin since the 2023 Match Play, and it's never played the Fazio Canyons Course at Barton Creek, so we’ll all just be doing our best to sort out what matters this week.

Ron's got the full rundown in his course preview, and be sure to read the part on the elevation. He makes the case that almost every hole plays uphill or downhill, so the yardage on the card is a bit misleading and the caddies will be earning their checks this week.

Plenty more in the articles, Discord, podcast, and tools this week, but what do we think matters when we’re flying blind into a new event like this? It’s going to sound dumb, because for the most part, it’s the simple, surface-level stuff that’s predictive.

1. Recent form, and it counts extra this week

• I tested 103 PGA Tour events from 2024 to 2026. How a player scored over the last couple of months kept predicting results even after the books set their opening odds. It’s not going to just hand you the winner, but it’s a big part of the puzzle, especially in weaker fields

2. Overall skill over a big sample, adjusted for who they beat

• A player’s total strokes gained over 50 or more rounds, adjusted for field strength, is the base everything else sits on. Rabbit Hole filters like “weak field” and “easy scoring” aren’t bad places to start. Remember what a huge difference the size of the sample is going to make based on where they played over the summer.

3. Sure, fine, we’ll use one “real stat” as well: Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee

• Driving carries from one course to the next better than any other part of the game. I checked 66 PGA Tour events at venues being played for the first time, from 2015 to 2025, and it was even better than approach, which was a bit surprising

Something I’m veering away from: Trying to sort out comp courses for a new spot

Fazio Canyons Course at Omni Barton Creek

Tom Fazio built the Canyons Course on the west side of Austin, and it opened in 1999 at what's now the Omni Barton Creek Resort and Spa. It got a renovation in 2022. This is the first year the PGA Tour has played it, and the event itself is new too. It was announced as the Good Good Championship, got renamed after Good Good backed out, and Compliance Solutions came in as the presenting sponsor this month.

It's a par 72 at 7,451 yards with four par 5s (5, 7, 14, and 18) and four par 3s. Three of those par 3s are 215 yards or longer, so long irons get tested. The par 4s are the interesting part. None of the ten is over 500 yards and six are under 450, so it's more about position and approach than raw length. The finish is a pair of long par 4s at 15 and 16, the 230-yard 17th, and a 562-yard par 5 to close.

There's real elevation change out here, especially coming home, and the greens are Bermuda. The course should play soft early after rain last week. Put it together and it reads like a ball-striker's week: hit fairways, control your distances into elevated greens, and pick off the par 5s. Nobody has a scoring average here yet, so the winning number is a guess, but the mid to high teens under par seems like where it lands if the wind stays down.

Model

Lots of the favorites near the top for me this week, but some guys I’ve been betting from further down the board sneaking into my top ten as well (Crowe, Jags). With little to work with this week, I stuck to the basics

• Approach on longer courses over the past 12 months

• Overall form (SG: TOT) over the past three months

• Off the Tee play

• Putting on Bermudagrass

• Around the Green

I'll weight it a little more toward the big categories, based on how I feel it’ll matter, keeping the emphasis still on ball striking and form.

Betting

Better week in Cabo, just not a cashing one. Denny McCarthy got all the way to T6 (led part of Sunday), Kirk finished T12, Jaeger T25, and Ventura and Crowe both ended up T50. Blades Brown shot 63 on Sunday to get to 23 under and beat Ben James on the second playoff hole. Not what I was doing when I was 19.

Austin Outrights:

Austin Smotherman, +4000 - winner’s win. Can’t argue with the fall form
Seamus Power, +5000 - He’s broken par in all 15 of his fall rounds
Max Greyserman, +8065 - Seems healthy after a scratch in Bermuda, this number’s just too big.
Kensei Hirata, +13500 - on a heater and improving each week

Want the tools behind the card for free? If you're new to ReBet, make a first deposit of $10 or more with code BSG. You get a 100% deposit match up to $100, and we'll send you a free Betsperts Golf subscription, the same Rabbit Hole data I build the model with. Your code shows up by email within 72 hours.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

We’ll be going over our best bets and sleepers for the Austin Championship in our preview show on YouTube as well. A day later this week, so join us live at 11 am ET if you can.

How to Watch

Television

• Thursday, November 12: 2 pm - 5 pm (Golf Channel)

• Friday, November 13: 2 pm - 5 pm (Golf Channel)

• Saturday, November 14: 2 pm - 5 pm (Golf Channel)

• Sunday, November 15: 2 pm - 5 pm (Golf Channel)

Streaming

• Thursday, November 12: 9:30 am - 5 pm (ESPN+), 2 pm - 5 pm (Golf Channel app and golfchannel.com)

• Friday, November 13: 9:30 am - 5 pm (ESPN+), 2 pm - 5 pm (Golf Channel app and golfchannel.com)

• Saturday, November 14: 2 pm - 5 pm (Golf Channel app and golfchannel.com)

• Sunday, November 15: 2 pm - 5 pm (Golf Channel app and golfchannel.com)

Golf Channel has the only live TV coverage of all four rounds, and the Golf Channel app and golfchannel.com simulcast it. PGA Tour Live on ESPN+ adds early coverage on Thursday and Friday.

All times ET.

Weather

The Austin Championship opens with two dry, sunny days, with highs of 75 and 77 and wind under 10 mph in both waves, so Thursday and Friday should be the week's best scoring window and neither tee time gets a real edge.

Clouds and a southeast breeze move in Saturday, with afternoon gusts to 27 mph and a 28 percent chance of showers, which could/should slow the late groups some. Sunday is the wettest day, with a 55 percent chance of rain and morning wind of 5 to 15 mph, so expect softer greens and the chance of a weather delay during the final round. Preferred lies on Sunday at a resort course could be wild if the leaderboard is tight at the top.

Want it round by round? The full forecast is on the site.

News and Notes

We’ll keep updating our database on this after we actually play some golf, but for now, here’s everything we’ve got on Fazio Canyons:

Eyeballs emoji:

I like that Bryson vs Brooks has been replaced with Bryson vs Rory

Ghim's the name at the top of the board this week, and if you only know him as the guy who hasn't won yet, here's who Doug Ghim actually is.

Two events left in the fall and cards are on the line. We broke down who's sitting on the FedExCup bubble before Austin.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and keep an eye on the Sunday radar.

P.S. When a withdrawal or a weather change hits before lock, you're going to Google it. Add Betsperts Golf as a preferred source, and Google will show you more of our stories in Top Stories, so you get the betting read, not just the headline. Takes five seconds.

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