Just like last year, Utah treated me well. Getting a 75/1 Michael Brennan home felt good, but Smotherman at 110/1 was GREAT. There’s always been a bit of a formulaic approach to the swing season bets with guys who are rounding into form at the right time on courses that fit their style, and we’ll certainly get back to that in a couple of weeks, but this tourney is a bit of an outlier for the fall. As always, we’ll see a handful of big names playing in Japan that we may not hear from again for a few months.

Last year we saw one of the big names (Xander) take it down, but there were plenty of long shots filling out the top ten and definitely in the mix. Most of them are back this week and worth a look.

A look at the track we’ll be taking on this week from Ron’s course preview:

Yokohama Country Club

Yokohama Country Club’s West Course presents a striking blend of natural terrain and strategic architectural refinement. Originally part of a 36-hole facility (East and West) founded in 1960 by designers Takeo Aiyama and Hideo Takemura, the West Course has since seen significant enhancements, including a major renovation by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw, which beautifully incorporates the original use of natural valleys and ridges, and which focused on widening the course, strategic bunkering, and improved green complexes.

This week, it will play as a slightly composite course with 16 holes from the West and two from the East. As a par 71 and stretching to 7,322 yards, the course is distinctive in its configuration: it features only two par-5s, three par-3s, and a remarkable 13 par-4s—the most par-4s of any course currently used on Tour. In preparation for this event, 15 of the 18 holes had some type of modifications, including the removal of numerous trees.

Yokohama is renowned for its wide fairways, framed by dense clusters of pine trees, sprawling undulations, and classic Coore and Crenshaw bunkering in key landing zones. The layout combines scoring opportunities with demanding long holes, making it suitable for a wide range of playing styles.

Last year in its inaugural PGA tournament, Yokohama played at an average of -0.96 per round, but was a tale of two courses. The first and third rounds played at +0.74 due to a typhoon that impacted the area with heavy wind and rain. Friday and Sunday were both calmer with soft, wet conditions, and the course played -2.64 for those rounds.

Similar to last year, one of the biggest storylines this week will be the weather. The Tokyo area has been very wet over the last month and there is another possible typhoon passing near the course mid-week. Also, wind typically plays a factor with breezes from nearby Tokyo Bay affecting approach shots, especially those from elevated tees.

Model

This is a tough one considering we’ve only seen them play this course once after switching from Narashino, and we didn’t get any shotlink/SG data from 2025’s edition.

With the unique setup, both Noonan and I ended up adding Par 4 scoring to our models for the week. The rest of mine is fairly simple, with some current form (via SG:Total), approach play, and some bent grass putting splits.

Check out my full model on the site as well as other expert models (and build your own, users have built over 55,000 custom data models on our site so far).

Find out how you can get full access for a year (a $250 value) for JUST $10!

Betting

Trying to not get too loose after winning a bet last week, but certainly not reigning it in because now the only thing in the world that matters is repeating that feeling.

Love Bridgeman, and he’s built on what cashes checks here (APP+PUTT), even with the short price. The other guys have some warts, but that’s what happens when you bet triple-digit prices. Bez is steady and needs a spike to win (hence the T20 bet), while Mitchell and Nico, who finished high here last year, are simply priced too long for me (MUCH TOO LONG in Echavarria’s case).

Jacob Bridgeman +2653 (Bookmaker)
Keith Mitchell +6136 (Kalshi)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +10200 (Kalshi)
Nico Echavarria +18500 (Kalshi)

Bezuidenhout Top 20 +275 (BOL)
Echavarria Top 20 +350 (BOL)
(both are subject to dead heat rules)

good luck have fun, here’s us going over bets and thoughts for the week:

How to Watch

Television

• Wednesday, October 7: 11 pm - 3 am (Golf Channel)

• Thursday, October 8: 11 pm - 3 am (Golf Channel)

• Friday, October 9: 11 pm - 3 am (Golf Channel)

• Saturday, October 10: 11 pm - 3 am (Golf Channel)

Streaming

• Wednesday, October 7: 11 pm - 3 am (Golf Channel app and golfchannel.com, cable login)

• Thursday, October 8: 11 pm - 3 am (Golf Channel app and golfchannel.com, cable login)

• Friday, October 9: 11 pm - 3 am (Golf Channel app and golfchannel.com, cable login)

• Saturday, October 10: 11 pm - 3 am (Golf Channel app and golfchannel.com, cable login)

Remember: each round starts the night before in the US. Round one begins Wednesday night, and the final round begins Saturday night. There is no PGA Tour Live on ESPN+ this week and no NBC or CBS window, so there is no Peacock or Paramount+ simulcast. The only stream is the Golf Channel telecast on the Golf Channel app and golfchannel.com.

All times ET.

Weather

Calm conditions on a soft course that firms by the weekend should make this a birdie fest decided by approach play and putting, with no wind/wave edge, and the winning score likely even lower than Schauffele's 19 under from a 2025 week that had two weather-hit rounds. Some gusting on the weekend, but the course is also semi-protected.

News and Notes

Need some other golf to pay attention to during daylight hours? It’s also KFT championship week:

The newest TGL roster continues to fill out:

One year countdown to the next Ryder Cup:

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and remember this starts in like 15 hours. Get your DFS lineups set.

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