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A briefer newsletter this week for a couple reasons:

1. I’m traveling in the morning and haven’t even thought about packing yet

2. I don’t love betting small field events, these are better to just enjoy as a fan or to grab some lotto ticket DFS lineups.

That said, I do like the look of this course. Despite the advertised changes, it may play fairly easy again, but that’s fine. Let’s see who can knock out 20+ birdies this week.

Caves Valley Golf Club

Caves Valley is located 15 miles northwest of Baltimore in a secluded area that features rolling terrain and dense trees around the perimeter of this 962-acre property. As part of the renovation to make the course more challenging, it was lengthened to 7,601 yards and will now play as a par 70 instead of a par 72, as it did in 2021. As part of an epic playoff that saw Patrick Cantlay outlast Bryson DeChambeau in a six-hole playoff, Caves Valley drew criticism for how vulnerable it played to the PGA Tour’s best. The field averaged an eye-popping 2.80 strokes under par per round, turning the BMW Championship into a birdie bonanza more reminiscent of a mid-summer shootout than a high-stakes FedExCup Playoff test.

One recurring theme was the inconsistency of the greens, with Sergio Garcia noting that speeds varied from hole to hole, making it difficult to develop a reliable feel during the round. “Some greens were fast while others were slow,” said the 2017 Masters champion, pointing to an uneven putting experience that added an element of guesswork.

Another point of critique came from Cantlay. While he praised the overall layout, he also acknowledged that “there’s basically no hazards,” a comment highlighting the limited presence of water or truly penal trouble around the course. Without these features—and with soft, receptive greens—the 2021 setup allowed players to attack with minimal risk, contributing to the record-low scoring that week.

The field can expect a much tougher venue than the one in 2021 that allowed Cantlay and DeChambeau to finish 72 holes at 27-under par. As part of a 10-year plan, the course charted out new enhancements for members, which also included plans to make the course more challenging. These plans accelerated, and the course closed in August 2023 for construction, which included enhancements to every putting green. It reopened in June 2024. The club installed PrecisionAire subsurface systems to help control moisture levels under all 18 greens, which were tweaked to play tougher.

The 525-yard second and 521-yard 12th holes that usually play as par 5s will be altered to par 4s for this week. The change in scoring to a par 70 surprised Cantlay. “I think this time of year, it really depends on the weather we get,” he said. “If it rains a lot and there’s not a lot of wind, it’ll play easier. If it gets firm and fast conditions, a golf course like Caves Valley can be extremely difficult. This is the first time I’ve heard it’s moved to a par 70. When you get a long golf course and make it par 70, it’s most likely going to be difficult.”

“A lot of what we did was bring the greens closer to the hazard areas. They will now call for different shots,” said Steve Fader, chairman of Caves Valley. Changes were also made to the holes, allowing for more hazards like water and out-of-bounds areas to be in play for more shots. Fader said golfers can expect more hazards on holes one, two, five, six, and seven on the front half of the course. Holes 11 and 17 on the backside will also see changes that bring the water more into play. The renovations will also allow for more pin locations, meaning the course can change the holes up to allow for more variety.

Other changes since 2021 include the par-4 first hole being lengthened by 100 yards to 481 yards. A narrow, three-tiered green at the par-4 fifth hole that slopes from left to right was shifted to the back and the left. And the green at the par-3 17th hole was lowered and moved to the back and left.

Maryland native Denny McCarthy enters this week’s BMW Championship with a homecoming of sorts, returning to a course that helped shape his early golfing years. Although he hasn’t teed it up at Caves Valley in five years, McCarthy has plenty of fond memories from his junior and amateur days competing there. “It’s an unbelievable piece of property from the second you drive in. It’s stunning, and it seems like we’re at the high point here, so everything seems like it slopes this way on the property,” McCarthy said.

Agronomically, Caves Valley features bentgrass fairways and greens. Greens are on the smaller side at an average of 5,200 square feet and will run around a 12.5 on the Stimpmeter. The rough is a blend of ryegrass, bluegrass, and fescue. In 2021, it was around three inches in length. Reports this year have it being grown out to 4+ inches.

Key Stats

It’s always tough with a place we don’t get to often, but for the most part it seems pretty straightforward.

1. Driving Distance: Length off the tee was more important than accuracy in 2021, despite the changes, I think this sticks.

2. Par 4 Birdie or Better % (BoB): With two par 5s converted to par 4s, par-4 scoring is going to be massive.

3. Strokes Gained: Approach: It’s a longer course, so maybe even looking at some of the buckets of data sorted by longer itons. 40% of shots were from 200+ yards in 2021, elite iron play is (almost always) essential.

4. Strokes Gained: Putting (SG:P, Bentgrass): I HATE using putting in my data, but this has been a place where it seperated the wheat from the chaff. It’s hard to predict spike putting weeks, but I’m going to try.

Some other, more granular views you could peek at this week:

• SG:OTT on Driver-Heavy Courses

• SG:TOT on Easy Scoring Courses

• SG TOT on No Cut/Strong Fields

• SG:TOT on Long Courses

Betting

Wasn’t a banner week for the guys I trotted out there and with Rory now in the mix, I’m just looking for a couple of names that can surprise with some prices. I’m betting these a bit smaller now as I’ll be landing in a legal betting state tomorrow and hope to maybe take them in the E/W market as well.

OUTRIGHTS

Cam Young +2950
Kurt Kitayama +4000
Chris Gotterup +4000

Noonan has some similar thoughts but also likes a certain Euro who’s rounding back into form:

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Weather

Still hot even though we’ve traveled slightly north. It is August afterall. Softer conditions may be around to start the tournament with rain Wednesday into Thursday. Not a ton of wind to speak of with the worst of the gusting look like it should be in the evenings.

Tee times start at 9:21 local with the final group out at 2 pm, so even with a small field, there’s a bit of a difference in time and conditions for some. Maybe the greens bake out a bit in the afternoon if the rain stays away, but I’m not looking at any sort of wave handicap. Last time out (2021) they played pretty much the same.

News and Notes

• I’m sure you’ve seen this, but it’s worth saying: this is not the same situation as last week where he had an emergency fill-in. This is a legit caddie that he’ll spend the week with and be able to play his practice rounds/prep with.

• Not sure why this popped into my feed, but I do enjoy stuff like this.

• And finally, a little nugget for those who like to keep track of who may or may not make the Ryder Cup team for the Red, White, and Blue.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and I guess we’ll do some more playoffs next week!

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