Lessons Learned from last week:

Just because someone said they made a golf course harder doesn’t mean they did. Granted, we did have some preferred lies involved as well, but the renovation did not appear to turn TPC Craig Ranch into any more of a test than it was last year. I worry that the Byron Nelson may suffer the same fate as Houston (relegation to the fall).

That said, we’ve got a big of a banger this week. Of the non-signature/major events, this is definitely one of the better stops, and we should see some “normal” scoring after last week’s KFT-level difficulty.

A smaller purse, but still some bigger names in the field ahead of the stretch that brings us the final hosted (with a cut) signature event and the start of “national open season” with Toronto and Shinnecock afterward.

As we always do, we’ll start with part of Ron’s preview for the course this week:

Colonial

Colonial Country Club is a par 70 that measures 7,289 yards and remains one of the PGA TOUR’s premier classical positional golf courses. The tree-lined layout features numerous doglegs, tight driving corridors, and small green complexes that place a heavy emphasis on precision over raw power. Cut through pecan, walnut, and oak trees, Colonial has very little elevation change or dramatic sloping, but its creative routing constantly changes direction from hole to hole in a manner similar to a classic Donald Ross design. That unique routing becomes especially challenging when the Texas winds begin to swirl, forcing players to make difficult decisions off the tee and shape shots both directions throughout the round.

The course also presents one of the most demanding accuracy tests on TOUR, ranking among the tightest venues when combining fairway width and green size. Colonial’s fairways average just 29.5 yards wide, while the greens average roughly 5,000 square feet, giving it the third-smallest combined landing areas on the schedule. As a result, simply finding the fairway is not enough. Players must consistently position tee shots correctly in order to create ideal angles into pins and avoid awkward approaches into the course’s small, well-protected Bentgrass greens.

Agronomically, Colonial features Bermudagrass fairways and rough paired with pure Bentgrass putting surfaces. The greens themselves usually begin the week running near 12 on the stimpmeter before speeding up closer to 13 by Sunday, further increasing the importance of elite approach play, scrambling, and distance control throughout the week. The Bermuda rough is typically grown to around 2.5 inches early in the week before thickening closer to 3 inches by the weekend.

As a perennial contender at Colonial, Justin Rose noted that the Bermuda rough is quite unpredictable. “It’s the type of rough here where you catch a lot of fliers, and the greens are small and tricky. So catching fliers into these greens you’ll make a lot of bogeys. I think the rough is tough enough around here if you catch a bad lie it’s hard to get it to the green.”

Model

I spent some time going over the 2024 and 2025 data to pick out anything predictive, and most of the usual suspects cropped up. Maybe not a bad week to rely a bit more on how golfers have played at comp courses.

I did end up using a bit of this (past 12 months), along with:

• Scoring Opportunities inside 15 feet

• Birdie or Better Rate from the Fairway

• SG: Approach

• 3-putt avoidance

Members have been cranking out their own models all week with whichever key stats they deem most important/predictive here. If you haven’t joined yet, new members can try it out for just $10/month by using promo code BSG26.

Betting

Not a great two-week stretch after having someone in the mix for the better part of two months straight, hopefully back on track and trusting the process. Found some golfers with good T2G play, decent form, and prices I could live with in this field.

Rickie Fowler +2750
Pierceson Coody +6050
Gary Woodland +6450
Sudarshan Yellamaraju +9550
Tom Hoge +12500

Ryan also took some nice stabs down the board (we disagree on JT, though)

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How to Watch

Television

Thursday: 4 pm - 7 pm (Golf Channel)

Friday: 4 pm - 7 pm (Golf Channel)

Saturday: 1 pm -3:30 pm (Golf Channel), 3:30 pm -6:30 pm (CBS)

Sunday: 1 pm - 3 pm (Golf Channel), 3 pm - 6 pm (CBS)

Streaming

Thursday: 8 am - 7 pm (ESPN+)

Friday: 8 am - 7 pm (ESPN+)

Saturday: 8:30 am - 6:30 pm (ESPN+), CBS Broadcast on Paramount+

Sunday: 8 am - 6 pm (ESPN+), CBS Broadcast on Paramount+

Weather

Real nice (a bit hot) for the most part, with some projected winds for the weekend. It’s tough to call this early, but some 25 mph gusts on Sunday would certainly make it interesting.

News and Notes

Schedule changes incoming, but apparently nothing major so far. Just some mild reshuffling in the spring.

I do not understand this, but I do know that the women have FIVE majors. Does winning 4/5 get you a slam?

PUTTER DISCOURSE!

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and enjoy our final stop in Texas.

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