An excruciating loss last week.

I didn’t get the best number on Potgieter, but after seeing what everyone else was seeing (just a few days later), I added him to the card and ended up with Jager, Griffin, and Aldi Potts in the mix, just to see my hopes dashed.

That’s life, and I try to remember wins where I was fortunate. Everyone remembers the bad beats, but if you recall the times when you were on the other side, it helps. Hell, I can think of two off the top of my head that I had no business winning. I had Bryson win the U.S. Open and felt lucky to watch Rory miss putts that I would have given to him in match play. I also played some Rickie at the ‘23 Rocket Mortgage, where he hit a ball way offline into the gallery and (into a puddle?) but somehow got up and down for a win over Morikawa and Hadwin.

You take the good, you take the bad, you take it all, and there you have… a segue into Ron’s preview of the course for the week:

PGA National

Just a few miles off Florida’s Atlantic coast, halfway between Jupiter and West Palm Beach sits the Champion course at PGA National. While the length seems short by average Tour standards at just 7,167 yards, it plays much longer with eight par-4s measuring longer than 420 yards. With only three par-5s to score on, there are only four total holes with a scoring average under par.

Playing similar to a major championship, the winning score has been 10-under or less in nine of the last 12 years. According to Keegan Bradley, “It’s kind of like the U.S. Open, where you’ve got to hit a lot of fairways and greens and make those 10-footers for par. I just like the style of golf course, where you know that 10-under or less is going to win. So you know you’re always one round away from being in contention.”

PGA National is a standard “Florida” track. It is one of the flattest courses on Tour with unimaginative architecture. With this in mind, (similar to The Concession Golf Club), Jack Nicklaus decided to add drama to the course in the form of water hazards everywhere. Each part of a player’s tee-to-green game will be tested. Trouble is lurking everywhere as strategic bunkers along with 26 actual water hazards on 15 different holes litter the property. Eight holes require approach shots to cross a water hazard making accurate iron play paramount. Over the past five years, the field has averaged 2.27 double bogeys or worse per 72 holes which ranks as the most from any course on Tour.

Another factor that makes PGA National one of the toughest courses on Tour is the prevalence of gusty winds. There are typically at least one or two rounds every year at this event where winds will kick up over 20 mph. Not only does the wind play havoc on ball flights but it also dries out the greens making approach shots even more difficult to hold on the putting surface. When you combine the potential windy conditions with all the water hazards, you have a recipe for scorecards to look like trainwrecks.

Many of the holes that face directly into the wind will play even longer. The 550-yard par-5 18th hole is a perfect example of this. It plays at a yardage that should be easily reachable in two shots except when the prevailing winds are blowing, which happens more often than not. As Tommy Fleetwood said a couple of years ago, “The wind is a massive factor all the way around the golf course. I feel like there are so many cross-winds that bring misses off the tee, into the greens, cross-winds affect the putts, and it’s just an all-around very, very difficult test, and it tests everyone. It tests every part of your game.”

Along with the breezy conditions and water hazards, part of the switch to Florida golf is the return of actual Bermuda grass. While the rough (2.5″) and fairways are overseeded rye due to the cooler seasonal conditions, greens are Bermuda turf. Greens are large at an average of 7,000 square feet and run around 12 on the stimpmeter.

Betting

DAMN close to another winner, but sometimes a tree has other ideas. Still a strong week process-wise, I’ll see if my bank takes that in lieu of cash.

Cognizant outrights. A few guys that are playing hot, a few guys who are not (but have the tools to score here). A little lighter on the longshots, but I like ‘em to compete here.

Henley +2200
Griffin +4500
Horschel +5081

Hoge +13500
Meissner +13640
Putnum +17655

Model

We made a handful this week, including one on the betting show that turned out nicely, but I wanted to highlight a fun one I made this week that just has one stat.

Usually this is just a split I’d make and look at, but I ended up “building a model” after I went through and selected 10 different comp courses so that I can just pull this up next year and look at it again.

So, this is simply Strokes Gained: Total for the past three years at courses that I or others have deemed a good comp. Once again, this reinforces my love for Andrew Putnum.

View: My full course fit model for the week

Weather

Some rain should have the course wet and receptive like last year, but the really interesting thing to watch will be the wind on Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. If the gusts are prevalent deeper into the morning on Round 2, if could be a nice wave advantage for the AM/PM guys.

News and Notes

• Some insult to injury for last week to start things out

• I’ve already talked myself into Jorday winning another Jacket at this point

• This is a dumb video your dad would see on Facebook, but I laughed.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and pour one out for the old Honda.

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