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The Farmers Insurance Open
The return of Brooks! Outrights, Preview, Weather, and more...
A bit of a news bomb to start the day here, as it seems Patrick Reed will also be looking to rejoin the tour. While he needs to wait a bit longer, it’ll be interesting to keep an eye on how he does on the DPWT, as he can improve his status with some good results. EDIT: Reed just released his own statement saying he will rejoin the tour in 2027.
On to more current events, we’ll be down at Torrey Pines this week, playing split courses Thursday and Friday before a 36-hole cut and the weekend with everyone on the South Course. Annoying to not get full shotlink data again, but still a pretty solid field at a great course and all weekend to watch with no football on.
Ron’s written up both courses, but I’ll just be grabbing an excerpt from the South Course, as that’s where your winner will be playing three times:
Torrey Pines - South Course
Enormous length, narrow fairways, deep rough, criminally tough greens – these are just a few of the ways to describe the South Course. While mostly flat, at 7,765 yards, Torrey Pines is a monster and the longest on Tour. Winds off the coast can also severely hamper a round. Xander Schauffele commented about both of these factors. “It’s brutal. It’s mentally exhausting. The place is a hike. Just everything about it. When the wind picks up, you’re just worn out at the end of the day.”
Over the past five years, it has ranked as the fifth-toughest course on Tour at +1.08 strokes over par per round. Nearly every key metric plays more difficult than average, from scrambling to fairways hit to greens in regulation.
From an agronomy standpoint, greens are Poa annua and fairways and rough are ryegrass overseed. Torrey Pines is infamous for its thick penal four-inch rough. The course typically plays very firm, as Scott Bentley the Deputy Director Golf Division for San Diego remarked, “For the tournament, our goal is to really have dry conditions. We like the fairways to be firm and fast, and we like to see a bounce in the greens. We do expect the rough to be long and lush.”
Winners at Torrey Pines have typically fallen into two classifications – either bombers off the tee or players with elite short-game skills. From the bomber category, we have seen Luke List, Justin Rose, Jon Rahm, Scott Stallings, Tiger Woods, and Bubba Watson triumph. On the short-game side, Patrick Reed, Jason Day, Brandt Snedeker (twice), and Ben Crane. Interestingly, many of the bombers also have quality short games.
This par-72 layout has seven par-4s that play over 450 yards and two par-5s that measure over 615 yards. Golfers must take advantage of the four par-5s as they are generally the only birdie holes on the course, and possibly the only holes that will play under par for the week.
While the coastal setting is spectacular, Torrey Pines lacks compelling hole architecture throughout the South Course. It is often criticized for not standing out architecturally, as many of the par 4s and par 5s feel repetitive in design. The test is very straightforward with no tricks or hidden nuances. What you see is what you get.
Read More (including a look at the North Course):
My Rabbit Hole Model
Fun one this week, as I once again avoided using current form and got a wild mix of names at the top. Stats I used for this simple “course fit” model:
Total Driving
Greens in Regulation
Scrambling
Putting (West Coast)
Proximity 150-200/200+

Some more stats for the week, and my one-and-done suggestions:
Betting
A five-pack of guys, I think, can compete and win. Haotong is a bit of a flier, but he’s very hot in the streets this week after some nice golf at the Amex. Split my thought process between form and guys who can hit piss-missiles off the tee and find the greens.
Ludvig Aberg +2200
Sam Stevens +4500
Will Zalatoris +4931
Michael Thorbjornsen +5799
Haotong Li +7800
Noonan has a couple that overlap with me, but also likes a different longshot that might be worth reading about:
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Weather
Pretty nice out! Not looking like the wind will come into play much here, and temps staying pretty temperate in the afternoon, I don’t know that the putting surfaces will become that much more difficult for later tee times.

How to Watch
TV:
Thursday-Friday: noon-3 p.m., ESPN; 3-7 p.m., Golf Channel
Saturday: 1-3 p.m., Golf Channel; 3-6:30 p.m., CBS, Paramount+
Sunday: 1-3 p.m., Golf Channel; 3-6 p.m., CBS, Paramount+
Streaming:
News and Notes
Welcome Back, Brooks!
I think this is my first J-Ray stat for the year, and it’s funny since it’s headlined by guys I couldn’t even waste a free bet on at the moment.
Another sick stat, as most Tiger-based data usually is.
As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and enjoy the week off from Football.
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