Even though the playoffs lack the same fanfare as postseasons in other sports (I think we can all agree the majors and even the Players are miles more intriguing than what we’ve got here), this is still a fun course, and the addition of some young guns qualifying has juiced things up a bit.

It’s hard to sort out the motivation for the golfers at the very top. Hell, Rory didn’t even play this event last year. This makes betting it a little trickier, but as far as figuring out what matters, I think there’s a pretty clear path given the setup. Accuracy off the tee, strong play on the longer par 4s, and keeping the hell out of the water.

TPC Southwind

Built on the remnants of a former dairy farm, TPC Southwind is a par 70 measuring 7,288 yards. The tree-lined layout features narrow, undulating Zeon Zoysia fairways that average just 28 yards wide, 3-inch Bermuda rough, and TifEagle Bermuda greens. Players who grew up in the South or have extensive experience chipping and putting on Bermuda should be comfortable with both the surfaces and the hot, humid Memphis conditions. Past contenders repeatedly reference that comfort level. Zoysia is also well suited for the local climate, which combines extreme summer heat with periods of cold weather during the winter.

Over the past five events, TPC Southwind has played to an average of approximately 1.02 strokes under par per round, putting it slightly on the easier side of Tour difficulty. Winning scores, however, have remained remarkably consistent. Since 2004, only one champion has finished outside the 9 under to 19 under range. While it is a par 70, this is not a short positional course in the mold of Harbour Town or Pebble Beach. There are eight lengthy par 4s, and the numerous doglegs can make the course play longer than its listed yardage. Recent changes added approximately 50 yards without materially changing the overall difficulty of the course.

The defining feature of TPC Southwind is water. Lakes, streams and ponds are directly in play on 11 holes, and the course annually produces more “water balls” than any other regular Tour venue. Three different holes have historically produced double bogey or worse rates above 5%, illustrating how quickly an otherwise manageable round can unravel.

Webb Simpson explained how those penalties are often connected to what happens off the tee: “You drive it in the fairway. You’re going to have a lot less chances to hit balls in the water. I think these water balls often come from guys who drive it in the rough on holes like 9 or 15, even 18, even 12. There are a lot of holes where in the rough you have a decision to make: Are you going to bring on the water and go for the green or are you going to lay up? It’s really hard to lay up from 150 yards.”

With only two par 5s, easy scoring opportunities are limited compared to most Tour courses. Par 4 scoring takes on additional importance, and the threat of bogey is considerably greater than at many of the birdie-heavy venues played during the summer. Ten holes have historically carried a bogey rate of at least 17%, compared with only six producing birdies at that same rate. Even the two reachable par 5s combine for a birdie or better rate of only 43%.

The Bermuda rough is only 3 inches and does not appear especially severe, but its unpredictable lies make controlling approach shots difficult. That becomes particularly important with water and bunkers surrounding many of the greens. Missing fairways and greens consistently makes TPC Southwind considerably more difficult, while finding the water brings double bogey into play immediately. The greens compound the challenge. Even after being expanded during the renovation, they average only 4,500 square feet and are frequently protected by water or clusters of deep greenside bunkers.

TPC Southwind does not rely on dramatic elevation changes or an abundance of individually distinctive holes. Instead, the challenge remains consistent throughout the round: narrow tree-lined corridors, small targets, and hazards positioned around important landing areas and greens. Players need to avoid the large mistakes that water can create while still finding enough opportunities to score. Patience is important, but simply grinding out pars is rarely enough. With only two par 5s available, players must capitalize on those opportunities and identify the right par 4s to attack.

Model

Simple four-data-point model this week looking at:

• Approach play (when it’s tough to gain on APP/GIR)

• Scoring on long par 4s

• Good Drive % (another way to look at OTT accuracy)

• Bogey Avoidance

Most of the top names in here, but also the OTHER Fitzpatrick brother and Alex Smalley near the top.

Betting

Nice light week for me. Staying away from the top of the board and playing some hot hands with the skill set for this course. Strangely enough, all the best prices I found were at prediction markets this week. Keeping an eye on Cam Young as a possible live add if he seems to have even a modicum of confidence in his putter.

OUTRIGHTS

Collin Morikawa +3100
Jackson Koivun +4200
Alex Fitzpatrick +9000

How to Watch

Television

• Thursday, August 13: 9 am - 11 am (ESPN), 2 pm - 6 pm (Golf Channel)

• Friday, August 14: 9 am - 11 am (ESPN), 2 pm - 6 pm (Golf Channel)

• Saturday, August 15: 1 pm - 3 pm (Golf Channel), 3 pm - 6 pm (CBS)

• Sunday, August 16: 12 pm - 2 pm (Golf Channel), 2 pm - 6 pm (CBS)

Streaming

• Thursday, August 13: 7:45 am - 6 pm (ESPN+)

• Friday, August 14: 7:45 am - 6 pm (ESPN+)

• Saturday, August 15: 7:45 am - 6 pm (ESPN+), 3 pm - 6 pm (Paramount+)

• Sunday, August 16: 7:45 am - 6 pm (ESPN+), 2 pm - 6 pm (Paramount+)

Main-feed, featured-group, and featured-hole coverage streams all four rounds on PGA Tour Live (ESPN+), starting at 7:45 am each morning, well before the first TV window. CBS carries the weekend this year in place of NBC, so the weekend simulcast lives on Paramount+.

All times ET.

Weather

Super hot, triple-digit temps this weekend. With the smaller field and general lack of winds, I don’t think we’ll have much of a wave difference in the 1st and 2nd rounds.

News and Notes

Weekly LIV news:

ICYMI: my favorite golf cheating scandal of the whole damn year

Scottie with three more chances left to break the tie with these guys

And finally, Sunday viewership for the year. A couple things that stand out: it’s hard to compete against the NFL (especially without network coverage at all), and how about the 3M with more viewers than the Memorial or Genesis! (thanks Scottie)

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and I’m still mad at FedEx

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