GREAT week ahead.

I got a winner in Potgieter, it’s a 4-day work week, the holiday is on a Friday, the weather is looking fantastic, and this is a bit of an underrated golf course.

It’s still a low-end event and a close relative to the 3M and Rocket, but don’t let the ease of this course distract you from some interesting architecture and setup. Plus, it’s a holiday weekend, it’s not like I’m going to be out doing yardwork.

TPC Deere Run

Located in the “Quad Cities” region of Silvis, Illinois, TPC Deere Run is a public par-71 course that measures 7,289 yards. Once home to an Arabian horse farm, the 385-acre property that now hosts TPC Deere Run is rich in American history. The land’s past includes Native American settlements, coal mining, cattle breeding, and farming. Located in one of the most rural settings on the Tour, the course is full of natural beauty, featuring rolling terrain along the Rock River, elevation changes, and perfectly framed oak trees, all highlighted by numerous ponds and ravines.

Despite receiving consistent praise from players and insiders, TPC Deere Run might be the most underrated annual stop on Tour. It hasn’t cracked any national top-100 public course rankings and lacks the cachet of a marquee location. TPC Deere Run thrives in its playability and fairness, making it a course that players enjoy but critics often overlook because it doesn’t emphasize “difficulty” or architectural boldness. The Iowa/Illinois border might not evoke images of beautiful hilly landscapes, but this course has fantastic routing and movement throughout the property as the holes switch directions back and forth. Like all TPC courses, it is gorgeously maintained with bentgrass fairways, Kentucky bluegrass rough, and bentgrass greens.

While TPC Deere Run is not a challenging course, the sloping fairways, the elevation changes, and the tight dogleg holes will ask players to use their entire bag of clubs. Over the past five events, it has averaged -1.57 per round, making it the ninth easiest course played in the Tour’s annual rotation.

As for what type of player should have success at TPC Deere Run, Weibring said, “The course rewards a guy who shapes the ball well into the greens and hits a lot of quality shots. It’s not a place where you can fool anyone. It’s a good, straightforward golf course, no tricks. It’s a shot-maker’s course.” A wide range of player types have found success at TPC Deere Run over the years, a testament to the quality and balance of the course. The winning formula consistently revolves around precise iron play and getting hot with the putter.

Says two-time John Deere winner, Steve Stricker, “Guys enjoy coming and playing. It’s there in front of you. It’s not tricked up. It’s fair. If conditions are favorable, then good scores are going to be shot.” Because the grounds crew must heavily water the greens during the hot July summer to keep them from drying out, the surfaces typically stay soft and receptive—offering players easier targets to attack the flagsticks.

The course’s main defense lies in its 4″ mix of Kentucky bluegrass and fescue rough. This rough is much more penal than the rough in Detroit, ranking as the third toughest course on approach from the thick grass. Although the fairways are wide, subtle undulations in key areas often funnel drives toward the rough. The course also ‘gently’ fights back with numerous elevated greens, surrounded by tricky short-grass runoff zones that test precision around the edges.

Key Stats

Not a complicated week, just like last week. This one is going to turn out to be a putting contest most likely, but since it’s damn near impossible to predict a spike putting week, I think it’s fair to just look at the stats that you need to be in contention to win if your flatstick does a little extra over these four days.

Some stats worth using in your models/research:

• Good Drives Gained: Fairway accuracy over distance this week

• Birdie or Better Gained: Top priority due to low scoring.

• Comp Course History: Courses like TPC River Highlands, Detroit Golf Club, TPC Twin Cities, and Sedgefield CC correlate strongly.

• SG: Total (Easy Scoring Conditions): Players excelling in birdie-fests

• Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP): ALWAYS critical, but worthwhile this week due to large greens and high GIR. Again, this is a place where examining wedge accuracy will be beneficial, with numerous approaches coming from under 150.

• Scrambling/SG: Around the Green (ARG): Toughest area due to elevated greens and runoff areas.

Betting

The cold streak is not only over, but I've hit the biggest price on my card last week. Feels good.

Congrats to me, congrats to Aldrich, and congrats to anyone else who played him at triple digits.

More of the same this week with the weak field at a birdie fest. I’m finding guys I think can go low based on skill set, form, and a little bit of GUT.

Outrights!

Chris Kirk +3850
Michael Kim +4855
Nico Echavarria +6350
Cam Champ +7772
Victor Perez +9050
Doug Ghim +10000
Carson Young +15064
Jackson Suber +17606

Weather

It’s going to be plenty hot as the Midwest is getting its yearly dose of heat and humidity. Not looking like a wave advantage with some very similar conditions Thursday and Friday. Some chances of rain this weekend, but we’re still a ways from that.

Moving day appears to be the windiest of the four, with some gusts pushing 30 mph.

News and Notes

• Again, proud of my guy Aldi.

• Why did it take two damn weeks to get me this footage???

• Justin Rose aging like a fine wine…

• Is there a bunch of NIL money in golf? Feels like more young stars may opt for this route as we move through the big-money college golf era.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and try not to overuse the tractor emoji

Twitter | YouTube | Website | The Rabbit Hole