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I’m finally getting down the the Quad Cities to take this one in in person, and boy does the weather look like hot trash. Not only 90 degrees+ with humidity everyday, but some decent chances of rain in the forecast for the first couple rounds.
Still very excited to see some of the young golfers that we expect to be the next crop of stars here on tour down at TPC Deere Run (and bet on half of them).
TPC Deere Run
Located in the Quad Cities region of Silvis, Illinois, TPC Deere Run is a par-71 layout measuring 7,327 yards. Designed by former PGA Tour winner D.A. Weibring, the course sits on a 385-acre property overlooking the Rock River that was once home to an Arabian horse farm. Long before that, the land was occupied by Native American settlements and later used for coal mining, cattle grazing, and farming. Today, it is one of the most scenic venues on the PGA Tour schedule, with dramatic elevation changes, mature oak trees, winding ravines, ponds, and rolling terrain that are uncommon for this part of the Midwest.
TPC Deere Run has quietly become one of the most well-liked courses among PGA Tour players despite receiving relatively little national attention. It lacks the prestige of some of the Tour’s marquee venues and rarely appears on national course rankings, yet year after year it earns praise for its conditioning, fairness, and variety. The routing continually changes direction across the property, asking players to hit a wide variety of shots while preventing any one ball flight from gaining a consistent advantage. Like every TPC property, conditioning is exceptional with Bentgrass fairways and greens complemented by Kentucky Bluegrass/Fescue rough.
Although TPC Deere Run consistently ranks among the easiest courses on Tour, it is far from a one-dimensional birdie fest. Over the last five editions, the field has averaged 1.58 strokes under par per round, making it the eighth-easiest course in the PGA Tour rotation. The generous scoring is largely the result of receptive greens, wide landing areas, and numerous wedge approaches, but players are still required to think their way around the golf course. Sloping fairways, elevation changes, and several positional doglegs force players to use nearly every club in the bag rather than relying solely on driver.
Course designer D.A. Weibring described the ideal player this way:
“The course rewards a guy who shapes the ball well into the greens and hits a lot of quality shots. It’s not a place where you can fool anyone. It’s a good, straightforward golf course, no tricks. It’s a shot-maker’s course.”
That philosophy has been reflected on the leaderboard over the years. Players of every style have won at TPC Deere Run, but the common thread is elite approach play and a putter capable of converting the abundance of birdie opportunities.
Two-time champion Steve Stricker echoed that sentiment:
“Guys enjoy coming and playing. It’s there in front of you. It’s not tricked up. It’s fair. If conditions are favorable, then good scores are going to be shot.”
Those favorable scoring conditions are aided by the agronomy. During the hot Midwest summers, the greens receive significant irrigation to keep them healthy, leaving them soft and receptive for much of the week. Players can attack flagsticks with confidence, making approach play one of the biggest separators.
More Reading
Weather Forecast for the Week
Key Stats Model for TPC Deere Run
Key Stats Model
With the straightforward ask at Deere Run, I didn’t get too fancy with my model for the week, sticking with the stuff I determined to be predictive at the JDC
Approach (filtering out tough scoring conditions)
Putting on Bent
Birdies or better AND birdies or better on Par 5s
Scoring Opportunities inside 15ft (again, filtering out tough conditions)
Betting
Real damn close with both Morikawa and Akshay last week, which, even though I went home empty-handed, makes me feel like the process is solid.
This week I relied heavily on the model and went into it fully prepared to bet on some younger golfers to win on a soft, low-scoring track against a 2nd-rate field.
Outrights
Pierceson Coody +5500
Michael Brennan +5500
Blades Brown +6681
Jackson Suber +6681
Johnny Keefer +6500
How to Watch
Television
Thursday, July 2: 4 pm - 7 pm (Golf Channel)
Friday, July 3: 4 pm - 7 pm (Golf Channel)
Saturday, July 4: 1 pm - 3 pm (Golf Channel), 3 pm - 6 pm (CBS)
Sunday, July 5: 1 pm - 3 pm (Golf Channel), 3 pm - 6 pm (CBS)
Streaming
Thursday, July 2: 7:30 am - 7 pm (ESPN+), 4 pm - 7 pm (Peacock)
Friday, July 3: 7:45 am - 7 pm (ESPN+), 4 pm - 7 pm (Peacock)
Saturday, July 4: 7:45 am - 6 pm (ESPN+), 1 pm - 3 pm (Peacock), 3 pm - 6 pm (Paramount+)
Sunday, July 5: 7:45 am - 6 pm (ESPN+), 1 pm - 3 pm (Peacock), 3 pm - 6 pm (Paramount+)
Featured group, marquee group, and featured hole coverage streams all four rounds on PGA Tour Live (ESPN+). Peacock simulcasts the Golf Channel windows, and Paramount+ simulcasts the CBS weekend windows.
All times ET.
Weather
Hotter than Dutch love for the most part, with humidity driving the heat indexes up and some pop up storms lurking all week. Friday having the best chance of storms (nd a possible delay) kind of throws a weather wave advantage for a loop.
News and Notes
Still blaming his brain instead of trying out some new equipment at a lower-stakes event like the JDC…
Hell of a catch
I didn’t realize how rare it was to qualify into both of the big national opens.
As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and remember it’s not the heat, it’s the humidity.
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