Much too big of a tournament for just one newsletter.

Today I’ll get you all the free content we have here at Betsperts Golf and tomorrow morning we’ll get ready together. No bets today, I’ll have my full card tomorrow, but like I said, a ton of good stuff to help you get prepped for the first major of the season.

Ryan Noonan’s Player Guide

Noonan has been working on this for weeks and finally put out his free tome to help you prep for this week’s betting, DFS, contents, and whatever else. Stats, data, info, and thoughts on all 95 golfers in the field, this is a very nice resource to pour over for the next two days. It’s 100% free to read and we hope you enjoy.

Ron Klos’ Course Preview

This is another great resource to get you on your way this morning. Ron’s put a ton of time into this, as always. It includes the many changes we’ve seen to the course over the past few years, the history, the agronomy, and a look at the big strokes gained categories and how they should be approached this week.

An excerpt:

“From the towering Georgia pines and flowering magnolia trees to the luscious green fairways and immaculately manicured white-sanded bunkers, Augusta National is a pristine wonder to behold. Countless characteristics make the course both timeless and imposing including the elevation changes, the routing of the holes, the risk-reward options, the genius of Amen Corner, and the treacherous slopes of the green complexes.

Augusta National Golf Club is a par-72 course that stretches to 7,555 yards. At that length, it measures as the 7th longest course in the annual Tour rotation. With a premium on thoughtful strategic play, every hole offers players bail-out options if the goal is to survive with par. Yet, birdie opportunities abound for those who wish to be more aggressive and take on the risk that most holes provide.

Over the past four tournaments, the average score has been 1.47 strokes over par, which ranks as the toughest annual course on Tour. Only one of the par-3 holes plays over 180 yards, yet due to the bunkering and difficult green complexes, they rank as the second-toughest group of par-3s, averaging 0.15 strokes over par.

The four par-5s are the holes that bring the most excitement to the course each year. One of the shortest groups of par-5s on Tour, averaging only 564 yards per hole, each is reachable in two shots and averages a birdie or better rate at 38.4%. With eagle chances possible on each, along with danger areas, they are the essence of risk-reward holes. This is especially true on the 13th and 15th holes where stray approaches will be eaten by the water hazards.

As important as it is for players to score on the par-5s, it is just as vital for them to survive the par-4s. This is demonstrated by the fact that the past nine winners of this event have ranked an average of second in the field for par-4 scoring. Rated as the toughest set of par-4s on Tour, they play to an average of 0.19 strokes over par. For a great resource on every hole at Augusta explained by a different Masters champion, read this informative article.

The course lines up to be a strategic game of two styles. Attack each of the par-5s and the shorter par-4 third hole while surviving the remaining holes with patience and conservative play. The back nine holes, led by Amen Corner (holes 11-13) are among the most exciting in golf and offer plenty of risk-reward opportunities for aggressive scorers.”

Read the whole thing (free to read this week):

Model

I’ll go over it in more detail later today on the research live stream but, it’s pretty heavy on the ball striking and tee-to-green this week with a splash of course history and some around the green play for good measure.

There are a couple of longer prices that snuck into the top ten with some great recent form and strong iron play (Spaun, Kim), but for the most part, this is the who’s who of the betting odds at the top of my model. I’ll be making some tough decisions this week, the toughest being “am I betting one of the two favorites, or straight up fading Scottie/Rory and hunting for long shot glory?”

Members can see my entire model on the site.

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