Bouncing back after a holiday weekend isn’t easy. Based on my weight vs how many I ate, I’m roughly 2% pork ribs at the moment, and this tournament isn’t going to wait for me to pull out of this extended meat coma.

I get why we have it this week, but it’s a shame that it’s not a throwaway tourney instead of one of my favorite stops of the year. With the content week compressed, we’re doing the best we can, and honestly, I think we may have some “pressure into diamonds” going on, as I feel like I’m seeing the board pretty clearly.

A BIG step up in difficulty from last week ahead of what could be an all-time carnage fest in a few weeks at Oakmont.

Let’s dig in.

Muirfield Village

Muirfield Village Golf Club is a par-72 course that measures 7,569 yards. The recently added length makes it the fifth-longest annual course on Tour. This classical parkland layout is characterized by elevation changes, wide tree-lined fairways, challenging bunkers, firm and fast green complexes, and penal rough. There are also 12 holes with water danger.

With so many areas that the course defends itself, the margin for error is minuscule. Even slight mistakes can compound matters quickly leading to bogey or worse. Looking back from 2016-2020, Muirfield Village played to an average score of 0.75 over par. When analyzing the last three years of data since the renovation, it has played significantly more difficult at an average of 1.12 strokes over par, ranking it as the second-toughest non-major course on the PGA Tour.

Said 2020 Memorial champion Jon Rahm after the renovation, “It’s a test out there. It’s more how golf should be. I’m glad for once we’re not having a week where it becomes a putting contest and see who shoots 20-plus under par. I do think the redesign has made it a better golf course.” Because of the penal rough, players who drive it well have a much better chance of finding success with their approach shots than those stuck trying to hack their ball out of the thick grass.

Muirfield Village’s design is typical of one of Nicklaus’s core philosophies. With wider fairways, each hole gets more difficult the further it gets from the tee box. Nicklaus believes in challenging players on approach and into the greens so that those who hit quality irons and can scramble to save par will rise to the top. Similar to how the “Golden Bear” himself played the game, Muirfield favors a power fade off the tee with a high ball flight apex into the greens, which typically get dramatically firmer as the weekend progresses.

Tiger Woods confirmed this advantage a few years ago. “So over the course of my career, I’ve done well on Nicklaus courses. And I’ve always felt maybe just the high fade or just high shots in general, because I’ve always hit the ball high has always been advantageous.”

Known for its immaculate grass and fantastically manicured grounds, Muirfield Village is one of the most picturesque golf courses on Tour. Fairway grass and greens are made up of Bentgrass, while the rough is a 4″ blend of Kentucky bluegrass, ryegrass and fescue. The greens are very pure and consistent throughout rolling at around a fast 13 on the stimpmeter. They rank below average in size at 5,000 square feet and are also known for being some of the toughest greens on Tour with broad sweeping contours and numerous pin locations that will funnel back toward the hole when hit to the proper quadrant.

Key Stats This Week

• Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP): Critical due to small, firm greens (every week, but even more so this week)

• Scrambling (Rough): Vital for recovering from missed greens (53% GIR rate in 2024). Top scramblers often finish high

• Good Drive% %: Fairway accuracy crucial due to penal rough; Nearly all players finishing high the past few years scored well here.

• Par-5 Birdie or Better% %: Scoring on par-5s is essential with the rest of the grind

• Bogey Avoidance: Small margin for error; the course punishes mistakes.

• Distance from Edge of Fairway: Positioning off the tee is critical to avoid the rough.

• SG: Putting (Bentgrass): Fast greens require defensive putting despite how small they are.

• Driving Distance: Long hitters are advantaged for shorter approach shots.

• Course History + T2G on Tough Courses: Experience at Muirfield or similar tracks predictive.

Betting

I love Noonan’s approach, attacking the “without the Big Guns” markets at Fanduel, especially at some of the wild prices they were trading.

I have another week of taking it fairly easy, although I did sprinkle some positional bets on some guys I think are undervalued based on the course fit, or in Homa’s case, the resurgence in their game.

My outrights for Muirfield:

Hovland +3000
Aberg +3300
Straka +3767

Rai Top 10 +300
Spaun Top 10 +300
Homa Top 20 +225
(all three dead heat rules apply)

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Weather

It’s looking fairly nice for the most part, with some chances that Friday is a little wet. Cooler temps than last week (we’re not in Texas anymore), and some gusty conditions set for moving day.

We’ll see how dry the greens are in the afternoon compared to the morning, but I don’t know if you can call a wave advantage for this week at all.

News and Notes

• Ranking ‘em: Bronco, Stingray, Firebird, Defender

• Every year, this math breaks my brain

• I’m tempted to drive to Wisconsin this weekend (it’s not that far) and snag one of these

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and if you haven’t yet, read up on Oakmont:

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